[p2p-research] Job Losses and Productivity

[Ryan Lanham]

Hi Maria:

I believe it is easier to fix governments because those political moves can
happen rapidly and decisively.  That is not true of an economy which is like
a garden...it must be grown over time.

Russia is technologically savvy, has an educated diaspora that wants to be
back, and ultimately is a powerful and world-class culture.  China has yet
to develop a modern culture the world envies.  It imports tech from Japan
and consumption from the U.S. and Europe.  It is not yet its own thing.
Brazil has its own music and literature.  It has a way of life.  The
problems of crime, mafias and poor health are Victorian.  The US and Britain
had them as well as they became empires.  So too will Brazil, India, China
and Russia have to have their bouts of neo-Victorian urbanism...broken
cities, abused poor people, high pollution, and corrupt politics.  It is a
stage of development.  I think Russia is almost out of it...moving into the
depressions that will purify the nation and turn it back to "traditional"
values...sort of a neo-Tolstoy era.  What is needed is a stable upper class
gentry that can establish "the rules."  Ideally that gentry would be a
techno-intelligencia like it is now in the US (Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, etc.)
or like it is in the Nordic countries.

Ryan


On Wed, May 19, 2010 at 11:02 AM, Maria Droujkova <droujkova at gmail.com>wrote:

>
>  On Wed, May 19, 2010 at 11:56 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> Hi Michel,
>>
>> I doubt there is any sovereign credit left for most nations.  Even those
>> with low national debts (e.g. Canada and Norway) have exceedingly high
>> consumer debt loads.  Two countries looking relatively good long term are
>> Russia and Brazil.  Both are politically unstable (comparatively) but
>> economically promising.  Politics is relatively easy to fix.
>>
>
> How is politics easy to fix? I don't know Brazil well enough, but as far as
> Russia, I don't see forces that could fix its politics (or its economy, or
> its public health) at all, let alone easily. The average life expectancy
> there, for starters, has been dropping to where it's now almost at 19th
> century levels.
>
> MariaD
>
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-- 
Ryan Lanham
rlanham1963 at gmail.com
Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
P.O. Box 633
Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
Cayman Islands
(345) 916-1712
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