[p2p-research] Job Losses and Productivity

Wed May 19 17:56:06 CEST 2010

Hi Michel,

I doubt there is any sovereign credit left for most nations.  Even those
with low national debts (e.g. Canada and Norway) have exceedingly high
consumer debt loads.  Two countries looking relatively good long term are
Russia and Brazil.  Both are politically unstable (comparatively) but
economically promising.  Politics is relatively easy to fix.

I want to say very specifically (and i work for a Ministry of Education)
that education is NOT a priority.  It is a long-term payback and the systems
do not now produce a "product" that the markets want to consume. That is,
schools don't work.  There is no good evidence they do work.  Organizations
like Don Bosco in India are doing far better than many schools.  TVET is the
answer.  And TVET could be done through co-ops better than in schools.
Literacy is falling even with intensive school investment.  Cuba has very
high literacy, what does it gain them?  Are they happy?  Are they free?  Are
they satisfied?  If so, why do they continuously try to leave?

What is needed is low debt, high investment in innovation, and lots of
skills.  The best models for that now are the BRICS and the US.  Much as I
wish I could sign on to the traditional liberal model of being
pro-government, pro-public schools, pro-debt, it's over.  It is simply
over.  The sooner the left accepts that and finds a new way, the sooner the
world will be a better place before it is wrecked utterly by the right.

On Wed, May 19, 2010 at 10:44 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

> Hi Ryan,
>
> I agree there are obviously financial and debt issues, but it is not
> immaterial that public money was used to bolster a predatory financial
> system ... in fact, it is what suggests the answer, to stop and regulate
> financial speculation in unproductive activities, tax financial gambling,
> stop usury payments, and create credit commons ... as ellen woods (web of
> debt) shows with many examples, sovereign credit is not inflationary when it
> is used for productive investments,
>
> so we could, using your language, agree with "no more debt" (for predatory
> finance), but sovereign credit for public investments in productive
> endeavours (can be done locally, does not need to be done by central nation
> state), and mutual credit systems for civil society, and a pollen tax on
> financial transactions
>
> education is a priority funding issue, of course, I agree, it does not
> necessarily have to go to buildings and centralized schools, and we can have
> autonomous local schools that do not necessarily need 'buildings', but that
> is a side issue for me
>
> as for europe, yes of course we are in trouble, but have you noticed that
> it is the least socialist countries, with the weakest social systems that
> are in trouble, while the socialist countries, in american parlance, i.e.
> scandinavia, are doing very well ..
>
> china, apart from pushing debt, is also doing very interesting things, like
> schemes with alternative currencies to stimulate consumption etc... I wonder
> how much that is part of the success (this money is used in typically
> gesellian fashion, as otherwise thrifty chinese would just put it under the
> pillow ..)
>
> as for my native country, my wife just informed me of the curfew in
> chiangmai, where a bus was burning in front of the school of the children ..
>
> sad and dangerous times, but the growth of democratic movements is not
> necessarily a bad thing,
>
> Michel
>
>
>
>
>   On Wed, May 19, 2010 at 10:30 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>>   On Wed, May 19, 2010 at 9:58 AM, Michel Bauwens <
>> michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Hi Maria,
>>>
>>> I'm personally for strong  public education, which does not necessarily
>>> mean dysfunctional ones, including in the rural areas,
>>>
>>> it's perfectly possible to subsidize and sustain a wide variety of
>>> distributed schooling based on free choice, as long as equal opportunity is
>>> protected at the same t ime,
>>>
>>> after the 10 trillion dollar (2 officially, the rest through other means)
>>> bailout of the banks, the reasoning that there is no funding available has
>>> no credence,
>>>
>>> as for farming, far from dying out, it's due for a big resurgence ...
>>>
>>> of course, Ryan's suggestion may come out if extreme neoliberalism
>>> succeeds in destroying the rest of public infrastructure,
>>>
>>> michel
>>>
>>
>> Hi Michel:
>>
>> Sorry you are having these intrigues with our Greek friends.  Sounds like
>> typical research funding issues to me, but alas, politics is everywhere.
>>
>> The real global issue now is sovereign debt.  How governments use funds is
>> the crux.  Regardless of how those funds have been used in past (for war,
>> for paying old people, for paying doctors, or for bailing out banks), for
>> most nations, we are at the end of the rope.  There is not future in more
>> debt.  Therefore priorities need readjusting.  Schools will not be a
>> priority.  First, the payback is not clear.  Second, they are hopelessly
>> labour intensive for no good reason.  Computers can replace much if not most
>> of it (I prefer Tony Bates' and Stephen Downes' arguments as my surrogates.)
>>
>> Regardless, the issue is labour and debt.  Employment cannot increase
>> without market capacity.  Therefore, real wages are frozen, unemployment
>> is rising, and traditional Keynesian stimulus is only adding to debts.
>> There is now some evidence that the US has broken this cycle (it seems ahead
>> of where Europe finds itself.)   But the politics are easier in the US where
>> socialism is less entrenched.  Europe, I must say, appears to be in a
>> very bad way...particularly the so called PIIGS.  (Portugal, Ireland,
>> Italy, Greece and Spain.)  But France and some of the Nordic countries are
>> not that far behind.  The UK as well.  It looks grave.
>>
>> The real question is what China does.  If China starts to consume, then
>> Europe might be saved.  That seems unlikely.  China wants the US to go
>> greater into debt so it can sustain its foreign currency funded growth.
>> That too seems unlikely.  The net of all this is that capitalism, for the
>> most part, will remain stegnant (especially in Europe) for a generation.  If
>> that is true, Asia will grow, Europe will become poorer, and global
>> environmental crises will worsen.  That is the outcome I predict.
>> Regardless, it will be a terrible time to be poor.  That's what makes
>> deploying co-ops all the more vital.
>>
>> I am very sorry, by the way, for what is happening in your adopted land.
>> I don't see any good outcomes emerging.  Sadly, it seems civil war is
>> likely.
>>
>> R.
>>
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