[p2p-research] Job Losses and Productivity

[Ryan Lanham]

On Wed, May 19, 2010 at 9:58 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

> Hi Maria,
>
> I'm personally for strong  public education, which does not necessarily
> mean dysfunctional ones, including in the rural areas,
>
> it's perfectly possible to subsidize and sustain a wide variety of
> distributed schooling based on free choice, as long as equal opportunity is
> protected at the same t ime,
>
> after the 10 trillion dollar (2 officially, the rest through other means)
> bailout of the banks, the reasoning that there is no funding available has
> no credence,
>
> as for farming, far from dying out, it's due for a big resurgence ...
>
> of course, Ryan's suggestion may come out if extreme neoliberalism succeeds
> in destroying the rest of public infrastructure,
>
> michel
>

Hi Michel:

Sorry you are having these intrigues with our Greek friends.  Sounds like
typical research funding issues to me, but alas, politics is everywhere.

The real global issue now is sovereign debt.  How governments use funds is
the crux.  Regardless of how those funds have been used in past (for war,
for paying old people, for paying doctors, or for bailing out banks), for
most nations, we are at the end of the rope.  There is not future in more
debt.  Therefore priorities need readjusting.  Schools will not be a
priority.  First, the payback is not clear.  Second, they are hopelessly
labour intensive for no good reason.  Computers can replace much if not most
of it (I prefer Tony Bates' and Stephen Downes' arguments as my surrogates.)

Regardless, the issue is labour and debt.  Employment cannot increase
without market capacity.  Therefore, real wages are frozen, unemployment
is rising, and traditional Keynesian stimulus is only adding to debts.
There is now some evidence that the US has broken this cycle (it seems ahead
of where Europe finds itself.)   But the politics are easier in the US where
socialism is less entrenched.  Europe, I must say, appears to be in a
very bad way...particularly the so called PIIGS.  (Portugal, Ireland,
Italy, Greece and Spain.)  But France and some of the Nordic countries are
not that far behind.  The UK as well.  It looks grave.

The real question is what China does.  If China starts to consume, then
Europe might be saved.  That seems unlikely.  China wants the US to go
greater into debt so it can sustain its foreign currency funded growth.
That too seems unlikely.  The net of all this is that capitalism, for the
most part, will remain stegnant (especially in Europe) for a generation.  If
that is true, Asia will grow, Europe will become poorer, and global
environmental crises will worsen.  That is the outcome I predict.
Regardless, it will be a terrible time to be poor.  That's what makes
deploying co-ops all the more vital.

I am very sorry, by the way, for what is happening in your adopted land.  I
don't see any good outcomes emerging.  Sadly, it seems civil war is likely.

R.
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