[p2p-research] on peak oil and p2p

[Michel Bauwens]

Dear Joss:

Thanks a lot for this contribution and for your challenges to received
wisdom, some of which may be held, and others not, by myself or people
congregating around the P2P Foundation.

As you know, between the polarities of predicting a future scarcity and a
future abundant world,  there are some intermediary positions, including an
‘agnostic’ one.

First, let me acknowledge that I believe the Peak Oil hypothesis is correct,
and that this will entail a crisis of the current model of political
economy, almost entirely predicated on the abundant supply of fossil
energies. I also think that the prediction that we will not be able to
replace this by alternative energies at the same level. This being said, I
have not studied this thematic, despite its importance, in any great detail.
But even without Peak Oil, it is for me a basic truth that an infinite
growth engine cannot function forever, and that many indicators point to a
number of converging resource crises.

This is in fact the very basic first hypothesis of P2P Theory: that our
system suffers from a combination of pseudo-abundance in the material world,
and false scarcity in the world of culture and innovation. Because I’m not
entirely sure how this crisis will play out, and at what speed, I always
posited two scenarios, the high road, involving structural reforms in
alliance with part of the elite, which allows for a smoother transition; and
a ‘low road’, involving a destructuration of the current world system, and a
reliance on developing more local resilient communities.

I think P2P infrastructures play a dual role in that regard. Yes, as you
say, they rest on the present unsustainable industrial basis, but AT THE
SAME TIME, if we do want to avoid to rapid and deep regression and a fate
worse than capitalism, we will need precisely those type of knowledge
sharing infrastructures. We cannot hope to solve any of the major global
problems, without mobilizing the collective intelligence of humanity, and
let crucial innovations be adapted everywhere. So P2P will be a necessary
vehicle to achieve sustainability, a steady-state economy, or degrowth, at
least if we want this to happen in a less harsher way. This is why I think
that, in the broad array of technologies at our disposal, internetworks are
the very last one we want to let go. We can miss cars, we can miss suburbs,
we can miss many things, but we can’t miss the global and local cultural and
scientific cooperation that rests on such networks.

I argued with others that while degrowth may be a inevitable objective
necessity awaiting us, it is not a substitute for a political program, and
therefore, our orientation must be towards a different, mostly non-material
growth, based on relationality, personal development, spirituality, sharing,
and other factors that most contribute to human well-being. While our world
painfully transforms its value system and practices in order to get there,
we can already start transforming the industrial system of P2P itself, i.e.
introduce green computing, alternative energy sources, different materials,
et c..  At the same time, we use it to run sharing systems (carsharing,
bikesharing, neighborhood exchanges, mutual agricultural and technological
learning around sustainability, etc..) that can greatly reduce the human
footprint. We also need to prepare and study alternative policy commons
frameworks, that can replace the misallocating market systems and
centralized bungling; protect our natural resources through
capital-preserving trusts, and many more.

This is why your point about mass mobilizations is well taken. It seems
obvious that we are entering a period like the 1930’s, with increasing
instability and a furious attack on the social achievements since 1945, and
radical movements of both the right and left will emerge. This is why a
political and policy approach is an increasing necessity, and dialogue
between the constructive and resilient p2p approaches, and the
structural-reform seeking social movements, will be on the agenda. But I
think the resilient local communities approach represented by what Sam is
doing in the Midwest around food systems for example, is very crucial, i.e.
local P2P implementations geared towards sustainability.

One crucial factor will be time. While news coverage may show things moving
fast, there is also a lot of evidence that this kind of destructuration, as
happened at the end of the Roman Empire, is also a slow process, but in any
case, we have to do what we can and keep our options open. The high road if
we can, the low road if we must.


-- 
P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net

Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org

Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens

Think thank: http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listcultures.org/pipermail/p2presearch_listcultures.org/attachments/20100518/3dfe6434/attachment.html>