[p2p-research] The three exodus and the transition towards the p2p society

[Samuel Rose]

A few thoughts:

On Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 5:01 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/book-of-the-week-escape-routes-control-and-subversion-in-the-21st-century/2010/04/26
>
> Dear friends, on may 2, I publishing the following, which I think is quite
> important as a hypothesis,
>
> Hypothesis of a third transition: capitalism to peer to peer
>
> Again, we have a system faced with a crisis of extensive globalization,
> where nature itself has become the ultimate limit. It’s way out, cognitive
> capitalism, shows itself to be a mirage.
>
> What we have then is an exodus, which takes multiple forms: precarity and
> flight from the salaried conditions; disenchantement with the salaried
> condition and turn towards passionate production. The formation of
> communities and commons are shared knowledge, code and design which show
> themselves to be a superior mode of social and economic organization.
>
> The exodus into peer production creates a mutual reconfiguration of the
> classes. A section of capital becomes netarchical and ‘empowers and enables
> peer production’, while attempting to extract value from it, but thereby
> also building the new infrastructures of cooperation.
>
> This process will take time but there is one crucial difference: the
> biosphere will not allow centuries of transition. So the maturation of the
> new configuration will have to consolidate faster and the political
> revolutions come earlier.
>
> --


I think the projections I've seen on P2P foundation list of "30
years","50 years" etc are too long for:

1. Radical change in biosphere (enough changes to cause significant
pressure on people employing industrial era approaches)

2. Shift to commons and p2p based approaches

An argument can be made that in as little as 10-15 years, multiple
pressures will coincide all at the same time. Peak oil figures are set
near 2030 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil  speed up of Arctic
and Antarctic thaw right now
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100404/sc_nm/us_climate_nitrous  by 2030
it is plausible that we will have already passed the tipping point for
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere affecting climates world wide.

Food and energy demand are projected to increase by 50% by 2030, fresh
water by 30%  http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/327/5967/812
 India and China (2 most populous nations) both warn their populations
that their demand will outstrip their supplies severely by 2030
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_crisis  (links there to reports on
this subject)

Many food producing corporations that run industrial farming
operations are switching large scale agricultural production to
biofuel http://www.fwi.co.uk/Articles/2009/10/12/118291/Massive-increase-in-global-biofuel-production.htm
 which can further increase food costs by raising commodity prices
worldwide, and causing food shortages. This price and biofuel
production increase is already happening now.

Meanwhile, multiple corporations are relentlessly pursuing total
control of communications infrastructure, (and already have total
control of) financial systems, energy and food distribution, etc

So, by 2030 (not later) it is plausible that we will already be in a
state where millions, if not billions will be marginalized by all
existing basic sustenance systems (food, water, energy, access).

Stuart Kauffman, and other complex systems theorists have shown that
in all systems, change tends to happen in an "s curve" fashion.
Kauffman uses a sandpile as an example in his book "At Home In The
Universe". He describes the data signature of a massive pile of sand
collapsing. First small bits fall of, then large chunks, then larger
and larger, faster and faster. The total rate of collapse towards the
end is exponentially faster than the beginning. I think we are seeing
the same with global human systems now, and that we are *now* in the
beginning time of collapse, with signals already present around the
world. This means we have maybe 15 years, starting *now*, to start
changing things in significant ways for at least 45% or more of people
on the earth. 45% minimum probably will get us enough inertia in the
opposite direction to slow down the momentum that is starting *now*.
That is what I think.


-- 
-- 
Sam Rose
Future Forward Institute and Forward Foundation
Tel:+1(517) 639-1552
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skype: samuelrose
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"The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
ambition." - Carl Sagan