[p2p-research] open-source gadgets have the best chance in markets where the technology has matured to the point that it is commonplace.

[Ryan Lanham]

On Thu, Mar 25, 2010 at 8:10 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

>
> Do people here agree with this thesis, see
> http://news.idg.no/cw/art.cfm?id=25B8CB70-1A64-67EA-E4D482E1CEBA3792
>
> But can such gadgets succeed against those developed by established
> commercial manufacturers with deep pockets? Mark Driver, a Gartner analyst
> who specializes in open source, thinks that open-source gadgets have the
> best chance in markets where the technology has matured to the point that it
> is commonplace.
>
> "Open source is about commoditization," Driver says. "These products are
> taking a market where there really isn't a lot of concrete differentiation
> ... between what's out there and providing an alternative, which is exactly
> what open source does right. Linux got wildly popular not because it did
> something new; it's because it did what Unix did, but did it in a much more
> open fashion."
>
I think it is completely consistent with everything else I have said that I
not only agree, but see this as inevitable.  Mark Driver is a smart guy and
has it just right.

As soon as radical innovation ceases, free wins.  That's why the idea of
technology acceleration means the death of labor.  Fairly soon (10, 20, 50,
100 years...all soon really) the machines will be better than us and free.
Extrapolate the rest.

Once the technology slows, it becomes free because markets really only
support differentiation.  What people buy is differentiation.  The idea that
people can sell "utilities" that maintain consistent low levels of service
is absurd.  There is no market theory to support it except monopoly.

The same is true of medicine too.  As soon as doctors start to all do the
same things (which they are violently fighting) then, it becomes free.

There is no such thing as stable value in skill or labor.  It always
declines without productivity or innovation (in the medium to long term).
That's why classroom teachers and stable market professionals will always
earn less in the long run.  Either productivity goes up, or wages go down
given any forward progress of technology.

When systems stabilize, they go free.  Apache Server is the perfect
example.  There is no way to signfiicantly innovate upon its base which
developed over 20 years to a very slow changing, stable platform.
Ultimately, all labor is information-based.  Once the technology of
information goes stable, someone will simply supply the underlying IP for
the lowest possible cost--which of course is free.
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