[p2p-research] Incidentals (3rd of 5): apropos the future of conflict (and TIMN)

[Kevin Carson]

  Sent to you by Kevin Carson via Google Reader: Incidentals (3rd of 5):
apropos the future of conflict (and TIMN) via Visions from Two Theories
by David Ronfeldt on 3/1/10
Some comments that fit in this five-part scrapbook pertain to the
evolving nature of conflict. These comments include a couple of swipes
at the “4GW” notion, followed by a reprise of John Arquilla’s and my
view about the four ways of war associated with military history and
social evolution à la TIMN — and I've inserted some additional remarks
about the fourth way, our concept of swarming. I then tack on two
comments about organizing for cybersecurity that reflect my view of the
+I part of TIMN. In all this, there are a few — but only a few —
observations that I’ve not made before.

* * *

I have long bridled at the notion of “Fourth Generation warfare” (4GW)
and finally dropped a couple comments to that effect.

The first was at Adam Elkus’s keen blog Rethinking Security in
September 2009, for a post he did in August doubting that conflict was
becoming ever more fraught with “complexity” and likely to induce
“state failure” here and there:
I quite agree that notions about state failure -- notably about states
being eroded by tribal, market, and new network actors, as well as by
internal corruption and incompetence -- have acquired excessive memetic
momentum these past few years. My view remains that the state is far
from finito. It’ll go through adaptations and reformulations, remaining
essential for the construction and governance of complex societies.

Speculations about the decline of the state get tied to the rise of
4GW. It’s a concept I find attractive, but I’m continuing to have a
problem with it: 4GW is presumably a postmodern kind of warfare. But
I’ve yet to identify a wholly postmodern bunch engaging in 4GW in a
violent manner. Instead, the ablest postmodern practitioners appear to
be lobbyists, public-relation firms, and activist NGOs. Plus some cyber
gangs dedicated to malevolent hacking.

But as for violent conflict, most (all?) of 4GW’s perpetrators so far
-- to the extent that Al Qaeda, the Taliban, la Familia Michoacana,
etc., reflect 4GW -- are laden with antique tribal and clan dynamics
and engage in old modes of violence. In that sense, many of today’s
exemplars of 4GW are primarily practitioners of PGW (pre-generation
warfare, if I may?). The 1GW, 2W, 3GW, 4GW spectrum, as I understand
it, leaves out this earlier mode, and recategorizes it under 4GW.

I wish I could find some clarification about this. I’m not asking for
it here, but I thought I’d mention it because it relates to your able
points: Many of these actors aim to reinstitute the state in some form.
I reiterated much of the preceding at Peter Hodge’s worthwhile blog The
Strategist in November 2009 for a post he did criticizing the
“generations of war” notion. But by then I could also add:
Recently, I came across an interesting timeline about 4GW that starts
with the notion of a pre-formal generation of war: 0GW. It corresponds
to my concern. To take a look, go here:
http://timeline.dreaming5gw.com/XvX.php

Even so, I still find the whole 0-4GW spectrum problematic, and prefer
other options.
* * *

I summarized the option I most prefer at the Chicagoboyz blog after
learning about a post by Lexington Green in October 2009 that invited
advice for a presentation on military history:
In a view that John Arquilla and I have elaborated before, the history
of military organization and doctrine is largely a history of the
progressive development of four fundamental forms of engagement: the
melee, massing, maneuver, and swarming. Briefly, warfare has evolved
from chaotic melees in which every man fought on his own, to the design
of massed but often rigidly shaped formations, and then to the adoption
of maneuver. Swarming appears at times in this history, but its major
advances as a doctrine will occur in the coming years

If this formulation looks helpful and interesting, go here to download
our old Rand study (it's free) on Swarming and the Future of Conflict.
Chapter Two (pp. 7-23) is about the evolution of military organization
and doctrine: melee, massing, maneuver, and swarming, with particular
reference to the roles of information and information technology in the
evolution of these four forms.

What that write-up does not show, except in a passing footnote, is that
this formulation derives from a view of social evolution — a pet theory
of mine (called TIMN) — which holds that, across the ages, societies
have come up with only four major forms of organization: tribes,
hierarchical institutions (as in states and their militaries), markets,
and networks. Thus, early tribes are associated with melees,
hierarchical institutions with the rise of massed formations, the rise
of market-oriented societies with the turn to maneuver doctrines, and
now the age of networks with swarming.I did not elaborate there, but
I’d note here that two other current notions of military swarming are
deficient in our view: One has evolved around observations about “swarm
intelligence” in nature (e.g., birds, bees, ants). It’s interesting,
but it is more about decentralized flocking without any central command
and control, rather than coordinated swarming as we understand it.
Another view has grown around the notion of “network-centric warfare”
(not to be confused with our notion of “netwar”). This view has taken
swarming in a high-tech command-and-control direction having mainly to
do with UAVs, leading to lots of corporate funding by the Pentagon.
UAVs are important, but we'd rather see advances made at the soldiers’
operational level (e.g., in connection with Gant’s proposals for a
tribal engagement strategy in Afghanistan). In any case, these two
other schools of thought about swarming keep evolving in our direction.

For additional analysis of military swarming, see two spin-off writings
by former Rand graduate student and colleague, Sean Edwards: Swarming
on the Battlefield: Past Present and Future (Rand, 2000), and Swarming
and the Future of Warfare (Rand, 2005). For an update on Arquilla’s
thinking, see his article on “The New Rules of War,” Foreign Policy,
March/April 2010, available online. Also try to get hold of his booklet
Aspects of Netwar & the Conflict with Al Qaeda (Monterey, CA:
Information Operations Center, Naval Postgraduate School, 2009;
contact: infoioc at nps.edu). Insofar as social rather than military
swarming is of interest, Arquilla's and my volume on Networks and
Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy (Rand, 2001)
remains timely.

* * *

I’ve set cybersecurity aside as a focus since my July post here on
“Toward a collaborative community for cyber defense?” Nonetheless, I
dropped two tentative comments that reflect the rising importance of
the +I in TIMN.

One was at the at IntelFusion blog, for a post by Jeffrey Carr in
August 2009 about his forthcoming book Inside Cyber Warfare. He noted
he “changed the focus of my final chapter from ‘A Public Private
Partnership’ to something that I think is much more vital: ‘Advice For
Policy Makers From The Field.’” And he invited formal submissions for
compiling that last chapter.

I didn’t aim to participate, but I sensed an opportunity to reiterate a
point I like to make, even though I never seem to be effective at
making it:
Part of the problem may be the very term you emphasized in the former
title of your final chapter: “public-private partnership.” This concept
sounds so sensible, and it slides into place so easily in
recommendations everywhere these days. But perhaps it’s an aging legacy
concept, more suited to the passing industrial era than to the emerging
information age, even though the latter’s proponents keep embracing it
(which I’ve done at times too).

Consider its meaning(s): It divides matters into public (i.e.,
governmental) and private (i.e., business), as though they’re the only
two sectors that exist. Good governance then mostly means finding the
right mix of public and private measures to enable government and
business, plus sometimes an occasional nonprofit civil-society actor,
to work hand in hand. And this usually ends up meaning key/big
government agencies allying with key/big business corporations, often
through subcontracting and outsourcing.

I doubt (and I hope others doubt) that this is the wisest direction to
keep trying to go in. For one thing, the two-sector/public-private
model is headed for obsolescence. An additional sector has been
emerging for years now, though its nature remains unclear and it still
lacks a good name (Peter Drucker called it the social sector — I like
that name best so far — but others call it the third sector, the
citizen sector, or the social benefit sector). Whatever, it seems to
consist mostly of relatively small, agile, non-profit organizations
that pertain more to civil society than to government or business, and
that are suited to operating in sprawling networks with each other, as
well as with traditional public and private actors.

While this deep re-organizational trend bears mainly on the future of
social issues (e.g., health reform?), it may also be significant for
cybersecurity, especially cyber defense. Indeed, the way I see matters,
your Grey Goose project is in this new sector.

I’m not disputing that the big government and industry actors have
crucial roles to play. They do, and they must improve at operating in
partnerships. But we Americans are going to need a multi-tiered,
multi-sectoral cyber defense system (or set of systems) that is not
adequately denoted or properly motivated by the prevailing notion of
public-private partnership.
The trite simulation of a “cyber shockwave” that CNN presented this
month, with an array of big government and industry players on stage,
gives me no heart that my point is likely to resonate any time soon.

* * *

Finally, I left a string of comments at Matt Armstrong’s MountainRunner
blog in September 2009 for his post on “preparing to lose the
information war.” My comments ramble, but I reiterate them here anyway,
much abbreviated and combined from across the string, because I still
think there may be a good idea embedded in them somewhere.
. . . [A] lot of concerns that plague public diplomacy/strategic
communication also plague cyber security. The difficulties faced in
both issue areas — e.g., definition of terms and aims, search for able
top leadership, key agency location, inter-agency responsibility,
public-private coordination, even the role of NGOs — exhibit lots of
curious parallels.

To some extent, these parallels reflect broader problems of government
in our times. But at a deeper level, the parallels may owe to facts
that both issue areas are about “information” and that much is still up
in the air about the significance of this concept/dynamic. . . .

Your comment above about data vs. information reflects the so-called
information pyramid. as your remark implies, it has a broad base of raw
“data” and “facts,” atop which sits a middle stratum of “information.”
The next, still narrower, higher stratum corresponds to information
refined into “knowledge.” Atop all, at the peak, sits the most
distilled stratum, “wisdom” — the highest level of information. The
pyramid implies that the higher levels rest on the lower, but that is
true only to a degree. Each layer has some independence — more data do
not necessarily mean more information, nor more information more
knowledge (or wisdom). Also, it should not be presumed that the
hierarchy is driven from the bottom by data; values and value
judgements may intrude at all levels. Moreover, critics object sensibly
that “information” should not be mistaken for “ideas.” [Read more at
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR880/MR880.ch6.pdf]

This looks like a good way (or one part of finding a way) to frame my
point that the cybersec and stratcomm areas have a lot of parallels and
linkages, and your keen point that cybersec is often mostly about ops
at the lower levels and pubdip (info engagement) about ops at the
higher levels of this pyramid. . . .

Under current circumstances, I suppose that officials who deal with
public diplomacy and strategic communication rarely if ever talk to
officials who deal with cyber security. Moreover, current proposals in
both issue areas for new czars, coordinators, offices, whatever, would
continue to keep them quite separate. . . .

Now, if our musings about the tie-ins between the two issue areas are
more sensible than people have considered, then maybe those two sets of
officials should be relating a lot more to each other. . . .

This does not mean that the same person(s) should be in charge of both
issue areas. But a range of implications may be advisable. At a
minimum, perhaps there should be occasional joint meeting to figure out
and act upon the synergies. At a maximum, perhaps a National
Information Council (or put cyber in the name somehow) should be
established, and both issue areas (plus others, like media policy, as
you raised?) should be associated with it.

. . . I’m not taken with the notion that a new cybersecurity advisor
should report mainly to the OMB and the National Economic Council;
that’s too business-oriented for my sense of what’s at stake. And you
are not happy (nor am I) with what’s been going on with the treatment
of public diplomacy and strategic communications. The maximum
implication I posited above may well be too much, but maybe there’s an
interesting range yet to be identified.
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