[p2p-research] FW: What Austerity Brings...

[Ryan Lanham]

It is true that the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil is above
.7 and has been above .8 in recent years.  But Canada is also increasingly
seen as an independent consumer economy no longer totally linked to the US.
It is still a major part of the US economy and the US dominates Canada's
economy...owning almost 60% of all Canadian equity.

http://www.buyusa.gov/canada/en/traderelationsusacanada.html

It is the closest relationship between two nations on earth taken as a
whole...but Canada is more and more on its own footing as an currency as
seen by the world...especially Russia and China.




On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 12:28 PM, Michael Gurstein <gurstein at gmail.com>wrote:

>  The Canadian dollar is a petro-currency with commodity overtones... It
> dropped 1 1/2 cents today on predictions of a falling demand for oil and a
> mis-report of much lower Chinese growth...
>
> Most of the personal debt is in mortgages and yes Canadian real estate is a
> bit of a bubble... How that will all unwind isn't clear since the debt to
> equity ratios have been reasonably good at current prices... If prices crash
> I guess that all bets are off.
>
> We do have the highest immigration rates in the world at the moment...
>
> As long as commodity prices stay high Canada will be okay (and give Harper
> the opportunity to scold the rest of the world... Again if there is a global
> recession/whatever and commodity prices crash Canada could be in trouble but
> the debt in Canada is mostly denominated, I think, in Canadian dollars (its
> mortgage debt afterall so things should be right...
>
> M
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> *From:* p2presearch-bounces at listcultures.org [mailto:
> p2presearch-bounces at listcultures.org] *On Behalf Of *Ryan Lanham
> *Sent:* Tuesday, June 29, 2010 12:08 PM
> *To:* p2p research network
> *Subject:* Re: [p2p-research] FW: What Austerity Brings...
>
> Merkel is the leader here now.  Germany will be fine.  The rest of Europe
> is going to be a basket case.
>
> Canada has the highest personal debt levels in the world.  Their housing
> market seems to be in a severe bubble.  Hard to say how it comes out.  They
> could import lots more people (wealthy educated ones...) and probably stave
> off problems.  Trouble is, that changes the culture as Europe (and even the
> US well know.)  Rotterdam has more South Asians than Dutch these
> days...literally.   Personally, I like free movement and low barriers to
> citizenship, but Canada is really pressed to decide on that one...they can't
> simply devalue their currency and sell goods to the US to keep going as
> they have in the past.  The world now wants a strong Canadian dollar...and
> that's going to change Canada.
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 10:43 AM, Michael Gurstein <gurstein at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>>  A la Harper and his G and B (S) cronies...
>>
>> "Confidence building" is about giving the financial wolves assurance that
>> they will always have lunch (you or your kids or their kids...
>>
>> M
>>
>>  Here's a story about Ireland...no surprise to a Keynesian...
>>
>>
>> http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/06/the_luck_of_the_irish_vs_the_e.html
>>
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>
>
> --
> Ryan Lanham
> rlanham1963 at gmail.com
> Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
> P.O. Box 633
> Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
> Cayman Islands
> (345) 916-1712
>
>
>
>
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>


-- 
Ryan Lanham
rlanham1963 at gmail.com
Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
P.O. Box 633
Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
Cayman Islands
(345) 916-1712
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