[p2p-research] ecotechnic future

[Joss Winn]

On 20/07/10 10:45, Michel Bauwens wrote:
> hi joss,
>  
> you could be right, hypothesing on greer's point of view, that our p2p
> approach has a fatal flaw, it is it's reliance on the further existence
> of networked communication,
>  
> but precisely because greer himself posits a long and phased descent, I
> think it is likely that even when the globalized peak oil regime
> collapses, local communities will have enough resources to adapt or
> modify the new universal info and communication infrastructure ...

I think that's a fair point. Greer's descent is decadal reaching into
the next century. We are living it right now and still maintaining a
robust communications network. Greer thinks we're in for a future of
low-tech and, as you mentioned before, is an advocate of appropriate
technology as a way to ride the collapse.

However, what interests me in particular, is the next 5-10 years, when
liquid fuel production is anticipated to properly decline and the global
peak oil theory is realised in practice. It will be interesting to see
the initial effects of this so as to better extrapolate the long term
impacts.

The peak in 2008 of both price and total liquid fuels pushed up
inflation and arguably contributed to the financial mess we're in now.
(http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/04/consequences_of.html).

The US economy appears to go into recession whenever oil prices are
sustained over $85/barrel (http://netenergy.theoildrum.com/node/5304).

This view accords well with Colin Campbell's anticipated effects. He's
the guy the coined the term Peak Oil
(http://stuck.josswinn.org/a-sequence-of-vicious-circles-and-gradually-t).

If we are in for a future of these short cycles of rise and fall, rise
and fall further - similar to Greer's Catabolic Collapse theory, then it
is likely to have an impact on the affordability and accessibility of
communications networks as well as their continued development and
maintenance.

More of a concern than whether we can use the Internet, is our reliance
on just-in-time business models. Back in 2000, when the UK haulage
companies went on strike over petrol prices, supermarkets started
emptying out after a couple of days and people were panic buying
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/924478.stm).

NEF has written a nice pamphlet called 'Nine Meals from Anarchy', which
speculates on this further.
http://www.neweconomics.org/publications/nine-meals-anarchy

Food production and distribution, medicines, water distribution, and
many other vital supplies and services, are dependent on oil.

How this is handled by government and the rest of us, will be key and
I'm interested in how P2P can help us respond, with or without
widespread access to the net over the next 20 years.

Joss


>  
> what do other think, this is a very crucial point for the human future?
>  
> Michel
> 
> On Mon, Jul 19, 2010 at 4:15 PM, Joss Winn <joss at josswinn.org
> <mailto:joss at josswinn.org>> wrote:
> 
>     On 19/07/10 07:08, Michel Bauwens wrote:
>     > Hi Kevin,
>     >
>     > feel free to take any take you want, though I believe that Greer's
>     > thinking is actually quite sophisticated and precise, and he's not at
>     > all a simple-minded primitivist ..
> 
>     I'd second that.
> 
>     >
>     > his current project is to create a huge commons for appropriate
>     > technology knowledge that could be used for local communities,
>     >
>     > I'm not sure what his take is on networked technology,
> 
>     I think he envisages its decline. I'm pretty certain I've read comments
>     to that effect. Here's a post which is typical:
> 
>     http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2010/03/logic-of-abundance.html
> 
> 
>     >
>     > his response to my emails were: "read my book" <g>
>     >
> 
>     I've read his Long Descent, which I enjoyed. For a shorter statement on
>     his collapse theory, see:
> 
>     http://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf
> 
>     It's worth keeping in mind that for Greer, we are already in a process
>     of collapse - it is not something in the future but a historical,
>     observable fact. For Greer, Peak Oil, declining net energy, ecological
>     overshoot, financial collapse, etc. attest to this.
> 
>     I think he would support the pragmatism of P2P but find the centrality
>     of and reliance on networked communication to be its fatal flaw. If you
>     buy the theory of net energy depletion (http://www.esf.edu/efb/hall/),
>     it suggests that the energy intensive lives of developed countries will
>     decline to a level that can be supported by fairly simple renewable
>     energy (remember that current renewable energy is built with fossil
>     fuels - a world of renewables built on renewables is not the same).
> 
>     As far as technology is concerned, Greer advocates stuff like home-made
>     solar showers and learning the use of a slide ruler:
> 
>     http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/01/principles-for-sustainable-tech.html
> 
>     Joss
> 
>     _______________________________________________
>     p2presearch mailing list
>     p2presearch at listcultures.org <mailto:p2presearch at listcultures.org>
>     http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
> 
> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
> 
> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
> 
> Think tank: http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> p2presearch mailing list
> p2presearch at listcultures.org
> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org