[p2p-research] What comes next?

[Ryan Lanham]

Daniel,

Nothing can replace capitalism.  There is no known capacity now that would
lead to economically efficient outcomes.  Could we have more efficient
capitalism?  Yes.  Could we all be poorer and have systems that do away with
markets, contracts, free trade?  Yes.

Asia has 4.2 billion people.  Africa has 1 billion.  The rest of the planet
has a little over 1.4 billion...750 million of which live in Europe.  If
pollution is the problem, we know that either the US and Europe must not
continue as today, or the rest of the world must not become like the US
and/or Europe.  Granted, the US is the worse of the two in rates and per
capita, but Europe is overwhelmingly the worse of the two in total outputs.
Europe has 750 million people.  The US has 308 million.  If China equalled
the US in productivity and output for even a fraction of its population, it
is highly likely that its consumption would exceed the US usage
rates.  That's the "pollution" problem.

Then there is the debt problem.  Real income must come from someone
consuming.  The US has, for a long time, been the world's consumer.  We buy
German cars and Pianos, Japanese electronics, Canadian trees and oil,
etc. far more than anyone else.  Without someone consuming, it is very hard
for anyone to be a net producer.  Now that the US is becoming depleted, that
means people will have to sell stuff to a much poorer and much less
sophisticated China...or the world must become poorer.  This the
"consumption" problem.

Given that nations must build and maintain infrastructure like roads,
armies, and social security systems to keep populations productive,
governments must spend funds.  But if taxes go too high, some believe that
incentive is lost.  This is the "debt" problem.  Really it is the same as
the consumption problem.

No system besides capitalism has a prayer of solving these issues.  Arguing
the issues don't exist is simply mad if one has any economic sense of income
and wealth.  Many do not have such a sense.  Perhaps the majority of humans
do not.

For most people the 1-2 billion people who live life in the upper 1/3 of
humanity are all that primarily matters.  Whether this is just or not is a
political and moral question.  For now, it seems few in the developed world
(even those who are most activist) really do much to help the poor of the
world.  Nor have they done much.  If those poor become richer, there are
endless issues.  If the rich become poorer, there are endless issues.  Since
I am in the rich group, I prioritize my own problems.  I hope the poor can
do better, but I would not change 60% of the U.S.'s income and wealth for
doubling the income and wealth of 2/3s of the world's poor.  Even if I did
have the capacity to make such a trade, the laws of productivity suggest it
would be a lost gain in a matter of a few years.  The only thing that makes
people wealthy is skills, systems, good governance and free trade.  Few
places can or do have those things in excess....probably less than 1 billion
of the world's people...most of which live in Europe, North America, or
their satellite regimes.


On Mon, Jul 12, 2010 at 10:24 AM, Daniel Araya <levelsixmedia at hotmail.com>wrote:

> Very nicely layed out Ryan. My thoughts also.
>
> As you say, what comes next? Thats the question. One possibility is simply
> no growth economies in advanced countries (Japan simply got there first).
> And a significant shift in power/wealth to industrializing countries (which
> are the bulk of the world's population anyway).
>
> And yet there is that nagging question of P2P. Could it replace
> capitalism... I like Michel's optimism there... just not sure on this myself
>
> 1. I believe free market capitalism has largely proved the happiest time
> for humans by far.
> 2. I believe in governments regulating markets.
> 3. I believe these things require careful balances.
> 4. I believe that technology is all important in changing the rules.
> 5. Technology has made labour and learning problematic.
> 6. Because of 5, the credit/debt economy of the world is now broken.
> 7. There may be ways to fix 6, but I don't see how.
> 8. If there is no way to fix 6, there will be great disruption and trauma.
>
> 9. Something else will ensue.
> 10. P2P may be part of 9.  I think "free" economies are a logical technical
> outcome.
> 11. Understanding free economies is therefore important.
> 12. There is no future in the past.
> 13. State socialism and communism are the past.
> 14. It is possible that debt-based capitalism is becoming the past.
> 15. If 14 is true, there is an urgency to uncover some means of solving
> what will replace it.
>
> Ryan
>
>
>
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