[p2p-research] is the internet going down the drain in 12-18 months?

Sun Jul 4 20:56:54 CEST 2010

On Sun, Jul 4, 2010 at 2:00 PM, Sepp Hasslberger <sepp at lastrega.com> wrote:
> Sam Rose: "Exhaustion will affect *everyone*, and thus it is most likely
> that the majority of the network will switch to IPv6. That is my take
> on it."
> That's exactly what my feeling was about this one, only I do not
> have the technical knowledge to know it with any degree of certainty.
> Sepp
>

>From what I know:

1. All large commercial entities need access to be able to create many
network addresses. Thus a "shortage" would affect all participants in
the internet.

2. All major operting systems have implemented IPv6 (source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv6  ref.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20081113-google-more-macs-mean-higher-ipv6-usage-in-us.html
)

3. There are readily available methods to bridge the transition.
Example: http://www.tcpipguide.com/free/t_TransitionfromIPv4toIPv6-3.htm

These realities likely mean that most businesses will not risk staying
locked in to IPv4 for the long term. It is very likely that many are
starting the transtion now (for example 4G on mobile devices is IPv6
only)

So, even if there is a crisis in IPv4 exhaustion in 2011, it will only
be a relatively brief problem.

>
>
> On 04/lug/10, at 16:18, Samuel Rose wrote:
>
> On Sun, Jul 4, 2010 at 1:05 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> This would deserve a discussion,
> Sepp? Olivier? Matt?
> Gordon Cook says this should scare us:
>
> Without even reading the rest of it: the first thing we should not do
> is be scared :-)
>
>
>
> http://longnow.org/seminars/02010/apr/01/six-easy-steps-avert-collapse-civilization/
> • 2 months, 2 weeks ago
> For someone who has worked fulltime-plus for many years to advance the cause
> of sustainable Internet development, it was gratifying -- but also a bit
> troubling -- to hear David Eagleman's suggestion that the Internet
> represents our best hope for averting a civilizational collapse. At the
> moment, the Internet itself is on the cusp of a major evolutionary
> inflection point, after which most of the seemingly highest probability
> future development trajectories lead to states that would probably not
> satisfy Eagleman's expectations, or even live up to the expectations of
> today's non-casual Internet participant-contributors.
> That inflection point will arrive in appx. 12-18 months, when the last
> remaining reserves of unallocated IPv4 addresses will be depleted. To date,
> these protocol number resources have served as the fundamental logical
> "glue" holding the Internet together, and enabling the 35k or so
> independently administered Internet networks to seamlessly interact and
> exchange traffic with one another. Unfortunately, The designated successor
> address resource, called IPv6, is not backward compatible with the IPv4
> addressing standard, which means that future aspiring network operators that
> only have access to IPv6 will be perpetually isolated and unreachable from
> the rest of the Internet -- unless they can somehow secure access to IPv4
> themselves (e.g., by buying or leasing it from an "incumbent" IPv4 holder,
> or by relying on an incumbent IPv4-based network to serve as a permanent
> middleman/broker for all interactions with the rest of the built Internet).
>
> An artificial scarcity created around IPv4 will likely quickly fall
> apart, as there is already a path to converting  machines over to
> IPv6. Exhaustion will affect *everyone*, and thus it is most likely
> that the majority of the network will switch to IPv6. That is my take
> on it.
>
>
> Today, despite the looming inevitability of IPv4 exhaustion, only about 5%
> of existing Internet networks globally are even capable of providing such a
> service.
>
> From an economic standpoint, many of the causes behind this particular form
>
> of aggregate adaptation to the looming change could be usefully compared to
> the conditions leading up to (and that might have been anticipated by
> interested parties beforehand) the Enclosures. I don't know enough about
> neurological systems to suggest a relevant comparison by name, but I have no
> doubt that Dr. Eagleman and others could fill in that particular blank. How
> would one characterize a distributed processing system in which established
> system-wide, mesh-like interactions are gradually canalized/partitioned into
> and superceded by less flexible/variable, more linear/serial, and more
> narrowly scoped interactions? How would one diagnose a learning system in
> which the possibility for (and any memory of) future learning is absolutely
> contingent on the active support of dominant subsystems that came to achieve
> that status as a result of past learning?
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>
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> --
> --
> Sam Rose
> Future Forward Institute and Forward Foundation
> Tel:+1(517) 639-1552
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> "The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
> ambition." - Carl Sagan
>

-- 
-- 
Sam Rose
Future Forward Institute and Forward Foundation
Tel:+1(517) 639-1552
Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451
skype: samuelrose
email: samuel.rose at gmail.com
http://forwardfound.org
http://socialsynergyweb.org/culturing
http://flowsbook.panarchy.com/
http://socialmediaclassroom.com
http://localfoodsystems.org
http://notanemployee.net
http://communitywiki.org
http://p2pfoundation.net

"The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
ambition." - Carl Sagan