[p2p-research] Economics of nanotech and AI

[Ryan]

  Sent to you by Ryan via Google Reader: Economics of nanotech and AI
via Next Big Future by noreply at blogger.com (bw) on 1/17/10
Robin Hanson forecasting the next mode of growth.


Mode Doubling Date Began Doubles Doubles Grows Time (DT) To Dominate of
DT of WP ---------- --------- ----------- ------ ------- Brain size 34M
yrs 550M B.C. ? "~16" Hunters 230K yrs 2000K B.C. 7.2 8.7 Farmers 860
yrs 4700 B.C. 8.1 7.5 ?? 58 yrs 1730 3.9 3.2 Industry 15 yrs 1903 1.9
> 6.3

What if was like the industrial transition.

2067-2120 timing estimate


first adopter gains New mode Initial % Final % Brains <1% 20 Humans 5
100 Farming 10 40 Industry 20 50 ? ? ?
Knowledge was always key Five steps to Radical Production 1. Atomic
Precision 2. General Plants - like PCs beat signal processor. Scale
economy to make, easier design, efficient enough. More differentiation
faster evolution of products 3. Local Production 4. Usuallky idle 5.
Self reproduction Lower marginal costs goes then Costco model may be
better. Buy into a club to get lower price on a collection of items
Factor Shares of Income Labor, human capital, other non-human capital,
natural resources, stock dividends My Views on Singularity Yes General
machine intelligence will make huge difference Not soon - roughly 20 to
200 years Not Trend - econ growth has been steady not Local - an
integrated economy grows together, not basement takes over world Not
hand coded - probably brain emulation Not Horizon - we can see past if
fuzzier -new economy doubles weekly to monthly - natural wages fall
below Economics of Robots Staple of fiction if have more of X, do not
want Y more (complement) or less (substitute)? Machine as substitute to
human labor -ricardo 1821, most science fiction -wages fall to machine
cost Automation as complement to human labor -wicksell 1923, modern
econmomics consensus -wages have risen as automation cost have fallen
So are robots a substitute or complement? Robots substitute on task but
tasks are complements complement tasks - if certain tasks become nearly
free or lower value then the remaining tasks become more valuable. The
effect of a rising tide. the importance of the shape of the curve of
tasks versus human advantage. A simple robot growth model complex
growth model - many things shrinking or growing Hanson has worked on AI
before and thinks it was hard and is still hard. Thinks whole brain
emulation is hard but doable. Pivotal : What Ready Last 1. computing -
other techs fast or fine brain detail key - broad smooth anticipated
transition 2. Scanning (least likely) - large coalitions, first
dominates, diversify - most in future descend from one human 3.
Modeling - may be big surprise so disruptive change. Cheap for robots *
Immortal (even so most can't afford) * travel - transmit to new body
(but security) * Nature - don't need ecosystems * Labor - work less
tool intensive * copies - malthusian population explosion, rapid growth
- Wages may fall to fast falling hardware cost + depends on mental task
landscape shape + happens if they slave or if free + only draconian
population wage Emulations feel human *They remember a human
life *retain human tendencies -love, gossip, argue, sing, violate,play,
work, innovate *more alientated worlds - as were farms, factories -
office work in VR Humans Eclipsed * Wages well below human subsistence
- some humans may find servant jobs * but rich if held non-age assets
More implications *copies rent bodies or own on loan - evicted if can't
pay * to recoup trainin invetment copy cabal limits copy wage -
security to prevent bootleg copies * fast growth discourages transport
encourages local prodution <1 cm robots seem feasible one skyscraper
holds billions is megacity


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