[p2p-research] Top 10 Forecasts for 2010 and Beyond

[Ryan]

Note number 2.

Sent to you by Ryan via Google Reader: Top 10 Forecasts for 2010 and
Beyond via Britannica Blog by THE FUTURIST on 1/3/10

The World Future Society has released to the public more than 250
forecasts from the magazine, over the last three years, including its
top ten forecasts from Outlook 2010.

The OUTLOOK 2010 report from THE FUTURIST magazine, a bimonthly
magazine published continuously since 1967 by the World Future Society,
examines the key trends in technology, the environment, the economy,
international relations, etc., in order to paint a full and credible
portrait of our likely future. The report is meant as a “what if”
survey of current trends and technologies, not a batch of absolute
predictions. But over the years, Outlook has spotlighted the emergence
of such epochal developments as the Internet, virtual reality, the end
of the Cold War, and the subprime fallout.

Here are ten of the most provocative forecasts from this year’s report,
all pulled from recent issues of our magazine:

1. Your phone will tell you when you’re in love. Mobile devices are
enabling new spontaneous connections in real-world settings, including
love connections. One day soon, your phone will play matchmaker,
recommending that you introduce yourself to someone nearby whose online
profile displays tastes or passions similar to yours. Impossible? An
iPhone application called Serendipity is currently being commercialized
by MIT researchers. -Erica Orange, “Mining Information from the Data
Clouds,” July-Aug 2009, p. 17

2. In the design economy of the future, people will download and print
their own products, including auto parts, jewelry, and even the kitchen
sink. Rapid prototyping, or 3-D printing, and devices like the RepRap
self-reproducing printer are allowing people to design, customize, and
print objects from their home computers. In the future, cheaper
versions of these devices could disrupt manufacturing business models,
resulting in far cheaper products individually tailored to every
customer’s desire. -Thomas A. Easton, “The Design Economy,” Jan-Feb
2009, p. 43

3. The era of brain-to-brain telepathy dawns. Neuroscientist David
Poeppel says that telepathic communication between brains is possible,
so long as “communication” is understood to be electromagnetic signals
and not words. Technologies like magnetoencephalography, which pick up
the various signals the brain sends out, could be used to pick up
specific signals and convey them. If you could train your brain to
signal in Morse code, sensors in a helmet could pick up the message and
send it to another helmet. -Patrick Tucker, “Reinventing Morality,”
Jan-Feb 2009, p. 23

4. Tomorrow’s inventors will spend their days writing descriptions of
the problems they want to solve, and then letting computers find the
solutions. Invention programs like Gregory Hornby’s “evolutionary
algorithm” have been used to invent real-world objects, such as a
special space antenna, based entirely on engineering specifications.
Continued advances will increasingly rely on cross-fertilization
between the fields of biology and computer science. As a result, we
will develop not only software that can produce better inventions but
also inventions that are able to adapt to their environments. -Robert
Plotkin, “The Automation of Invention,” July-Aug 2009, p. 24

5. Micronations built on artificial islands will dramatically shift the
face of global politics. New forms of government and unusual political
models will begin to emerge, including corporate nation-states,
religious states, tax-free zones, single-function countries,
cause-related countries, and even rental nation-states, where
organizations can “rent a country” for a year or two to test a specific
project. -Thomas Frey, “Own Your Own Island Nation,” May-June 2009, p.
30

6. Young people will read more, and the old will play more video games.
The 2007 American Time Use Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
revealed some surprising findings. In 2007, adults aged 75 and older
spent nearly twice as much time playing video games (about 20 minutes)
as they did in 2006. Teens aged 15–19 spent twice as much time reading
as they did before (about 14 minutes) and less time using a computer
for games or casual surfing. -World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2008,
p. 14

7. Ammonia may become the fuel of choice for cars by 2020. As a
candidate source for hydrogen used in fuel cells, ammonia (comprising
one nitrogen and three hydrogen atoms) is plentiful, easier to liquefy
than methane, and emits nitrogen rather than carbon, thus having fewer
negative impacts on the climate. -J. Storrs Hall, “Ammonia, the Fuel of
the Future,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 10

8. Algae may become the new oil. According to researchers at a
Department of Energy plant in New Mexico, single-celled microalgae,
grown in pond water, produce a biofuel that is lead-free and
biodegradable, emits two-thirds less carbon dioxide and other
pollutants than gasoline, and can run any modern diesel engine. Even
better, algae require only a fraction of the land area of
biofuel-producing crops. -Robert McIntyre, “Algae’s Powerful Future,”
Mar-Apr 2009, p. 25

9. Radical methods of altering the planet may be the only way to
prevent the worst effects of climate change. Geoengineering may be
inevitable because, even if humans could instantly end all greenhouse
gas emissions, global temperatures would continue to increase for the
next 20–30 years, triggering feedback loops and more warming. Potential
megascale geoengineering projects include sending space mirrors into
orbit, sequestering carbon in the ground in biomass charcoal, and
increasing the amount of carbon that the ocean can absorb by forcing
plankton blooms in the seas. -Jamais Cascio, author of Hacking the
Earth, reviewed by Bob Olson, July-Aug 2009, p. 51

10. The existence of extraterrestrial life will be confirmed or
conclusively denied within a generation. New space missions and
advanced computer technology could confirm the existence of
extraterrestrials soon. Scientists using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope
have found that at least 20%—and perhaps as many as 60%—of Sun-like
stars could have rocky planets. Next generation, AI-driven space probes
may allow us to plot the location of every planetary body in the known
universe. Among the more than 300 extra-solar worlds already
discovered, probably one has some form of life, according to Dimitar
Sasselov, an astronomer and director of Harvard University’s Origins of
Life Initiative. -Gregory Georgiou, “The Real Life Search for E.T.
Heats Up,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 20

* * *

All of these forecasts plus dozens more were included in the report
that scanned the best writing and research from THE FUTURIST magazine
over the course of the previous year.

This year, THE FUTURIST has also made public the contents from Outlook
2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, more than 250 forecasts in all relating to
2010 and beyond.

The Society hopes this report, covering developments in business and
economics, demography, energy, the environment, health and medicine,
resources, society and values, and technology, will assist its readers
in preparing for the challenges and opportunities in the coming decade.







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