[p2p-research] a new funding mechanism for useful online services

[Ryan Lanham]

On 1/5/10, Sepp Hasslberger <sepp at lastrega.com> wrote:
>
>
> What I see happening is that p2p will be taking much of the current playing
> field of those large corporations and converting what they are providing
> into direct p2p interaction and services. That leaves them with little to
> do, and I can't imagine them just folding up and going home. So a new,
> outward-directed field of play for those entities would seem to be a
> necessity, and a guarantee for harmonious development in the future.


Hi Sepp,

I agree with your assessment in the long term.  I have trouble envisioning
transitions.  I say what you said in several ways:

1. Corporate profits are harder to come by.
2. Because of (1) the credit economy is not working.
3. Over 40% of US profits are earned by investment banks or large
banks...not sustainable.
4. Worker satisfaction in the US is at all-time lows--only 45% of employees
are satisfied with their work.
5. Most of the developed world (though not so much the US) is entering an
acute but prolonged demographic crisis.  Europe and Japan are particularly
at risk here.  Fertility rates in Germany are now below 1.3 ... that is a
society ending number in two generations.  US population will be 3x that of
Russia by 2050...a remarkable number for us old Cold Warriors.
6. Africa, India, China and much of South/Central America are becoming
middle class.
7. Technology innovation is clearly accelerating.

Those are points where I start.  I then set 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 out on a
piece of paper and try to come to some paths or conclusions that seem to
lead to the world you describe (which I agree is a plausible and desirable
outcome).  I just don't get very far.

Ryan
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