[p2p-research] The three exodus and the transition towards the p2p society

Fri Apr 30 03:50:09 CEST 2010

do i disagree with your final points?  No, not significantly.

On Wed, Apr 28, 2010 at 11:26 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

>
>
> On Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 9:23 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> Hi Michel:
>>
>> A few thoughts on what you write:
>>
>> 1. The world is urbanizing in a hurry.  That isn't slowing.  So exodus
>> seems some time away.
>>
>
> urbanization is exodus, and most of it goes into the informal economy; but
> I agree that this type of exodus is not necessarily system-transforming; and
> for a short while, at least in Asia, may be system-confirming,
>
>
>
>>
>> 2. I don't think the biosphere is the imminent issue of capitalism...maybe
>> in 100 years...but the issue will, IMO, be long solved by then.
>>
>
> I don't share that optimism, because an infinitite growth system is
> logically and physically incompatible with the survival of the biosphere;
> but I do agree that in 100 years, we have a chance to reach an equilibrium,
> but it will be a different system
>
>
>>
>> 3. Instead, the imminent issue is labour...as is was in the rise of
>> feudalism and the rise of capitalism...in short, the issue was productivity
>> changes through organization (e.g. guilds and trading networks) and then
>> through technology (the steam engine, etc.).  The same is true now.  The
>> death of capitalism is occuring because labour productivity cannot keep pace
>> with the changes in automation.  In other words, humans are becoming
>> obsolete.  This either means that population falls sharply (what many
>> capitalists like Buffett believe) or we find a new system of Hans Moravec
>> like robo-socialism.  I tend to see a blending of both outcomes especially
>> with a lot more transhumanism (which I think touches on your Negri Hardt
>> body...discussion).
>>
>
>
> I don't agree witht he conclusion. Of course, there is rising productivity
> of labour, and as a process, eventually this contradiction will be reached.
> But I don't think the current ecological and financial crisis are directly
> related to that. I don't think the sudden spike in unemployment and
> sovereign defaults is directly cause by a sudden and miraculous jump in
> labour productivity
>
>
>
>>
>> The future is close...not more than 30 years off.  By future, I mean a
>> major systematic transition.  To my mind, that transition is driven almost
>> exclusively by technology.  Today is YouTube's fifth birthday.  Imagine.  I
>> had a recent discussion with a biologist who said "hold on to your ankles"
>> the world is about to start turning very fast.  Aubrey de Grey...no dummy,
>> is saying very similar things.  Cambridge England is all abuzz now in
>> general about post-humanism as is the campus of MIT.  It isn't carbon that's
>> going to be the driver...it is technology.  Thus, the systemic crisis you
>> await will be much more internalized...as it was in the others.  Rome fell
>> from within, not from without.  Feudalism arose from structural
>> instabilities of production in urban places and the need for distributed
>> labour systems that made sense absent a strong state.
>>
>
> We agree on more and more things <g>, like the system transition in about
> 30 years, the question of course is, what kind of transition
>
> my take: a core of knowledge/science/technical commons; and pluralist
> economic forms dealing with the distribution and production of rival
> material resources.
>
> Do you disagree?
>
> Michel
>
>
>
>
>>
>> Ryan
>>
>>   On Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 4:01 AM, Michel Bauwens <
>> michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/book-of-the-week-escape-routes-control-and-subversion-in-the-21st-century/2010/04/26
>>>
>>> Dear friends, on may 2, I publishing the following, which I think is
>>> quite important as a hypothesis,
>>>
>>> (the above link is to a related approach on escape routes: dimitri, I
>>> published it earlier than planned because of a mistake in post-dating)
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Three Times  Exodus, Three Phase Transitions
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> In my lectures, based on my reading of history books during 2003-2004, I
>>> use a genealogy of social change and phase transitions from one system to
>>> another, that starts with the crisis of a dominant system, creating an
>>> exodus, which in turns leads to a mutual reconfiguration of both managerial
>>> and producing classes.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Here is the story, and I’m interested in your thoughts, and challenges,
>>> especially based on the historical record.
>>>
>>> The narrative is of course simplified, but the aim is to get the main
>>> points of the process, and my hypothesis, across.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The first transition: Rome to feudalism
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> At some point in  its evolution (3rd century onwards?), the Roman empire
>>> ceases to expand (the cost of of maintaining empire and expansion exceeds
>>> its benefits). No conquests means a drying up of the most important raw
>>> material of a slave economy, i.e. the slaves, which therefore become more
>>> ‘expensive’. At the same time, the tax base dries up, making it more and
>>> more difficult to maintain both internal coercion and external defenses. It
>>> is in this context that Perry Anderson mentions for example that when
>>> Germanic tribes were about to lay siege to a Roman city, they would offer to
>>> free the slaves, leading to an exodus of the city population. This exodus
>>> and the set of difficulties just described, set of a reorientation of some
>>> slave owners, who shift to the system of coloni, i.e. serfs. I.e. slaves are
>>> partially freed, can have families, can produce from themselves and have
>>> villages, giving the surplus to the new domain holders.
>>>
>>> Hence, the phase transition goes something like this: 1) systemic crisis
>>> ; 2) exodus 3) mutual reconfiguration of the classes.
>>>
>>> This whole process would of course take five centuries. In the First
>>> European Revolution, historian xxx claims that the feudal system would only
>>> consolidate around 975, the date of the political revolution confirming the
>>> previous phase transition, and setting up a consolidated growth phase for
>>> the new system (doubling of the population between 10 and 13th century).
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The second transition: feudalism to capitalism
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Something very similar starts occurring as of the 16th century. The
>>> feudal system enters in crisis, and serfs start fleeing the countryside,
>>> installing themselves in the cities, where they are rejected by the feudal
>>> guild system, but embraced by a new type of proto-capitalist entrepreneurs.
>>> In other words, a section of the feudal class (as well as some upstarts from
>>> the lower classes) re-orient themselves by investing in the new mode of
>>> production (and those that don’t gradually impoverish themselves), while
>>> serfs become workers.
>>>
>>> In short,  we have the same scheme:
>>>
>>> 1)      Systemic crisis
>>>
>>> 2)      Exodus
>>>
>>> 3)      Mutual reconfiguration of classes
>>>
>>> 4)      After a long period of re-orientation and phase transitions: the
>>> political revolutions that configure the new capitalist system as dominant
>>>
>>> Again, the process of reconfiguration takes several centuries, and the
>>> political revolutions come at the end of it.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Hypothesis of a third transition: capitalism to peer to peer
>>>
>>> Again, we have a system faced with a crisis of extensive globalization,
>>> where nature itself has become the ultimate limit. It’s way out, cognitive
>>> capitalism, shows itself to be a mirage.
>>>
>>> What we have then is an exodus, which takes multiple forms: precarity and
>>> flight from the salaried conditions; disenchantement with the salaried
>>> condition and turn towards passionate production. The formation of
>>> communities and commons are shared knowledge, code and design which show
>>> themselves to be a superior mode of social and economic organization.
>>>
>>> The exodus into peer production creates a mutual reconfiguration of the
>>> classes. A section of capital becomes netarchical and ‘empowers and enables
>>> peer production’, while attempting to extract value from it, but thereby
>>> also building the new infrastructures of cooperation.
>>>
>>> This process will take time but there is one crucial difference: the
>>> biosphere will not allow centuries of transition. So the maturation of the
>>> new configuration will have to consolidate faster and the political
>>> revolutions come earlier.
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Think
>>> thank: http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>
>>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
>>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>>>
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>>>
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>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
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>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Ryan Lanham
>> rlanham1963 at gmail.com
>> Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
>> P.O. Box 633
>> Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
>> Cayman Islands
>> (345) 916-1712
>>
>>
>>
>>
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>>
>
>
> --
> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Think
> thank: http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>
> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>
> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>
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>
>
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-- 
Ryan Lanham
rlanham1963 at gmail.com
Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
P.O. Box 633
Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
Cayman Islands
(345) 916-1712
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