[p2p-research] Is the future of distributed manufacturing in China?

Wed Apr 28 15:55:00 CEST 2010

thanks Ryan, very useful comments

would you consider yourself an optimist or a pessmist (forbidden answer:
"I'm a realist" <g>)

On Wed, Apr 28, 2010 at 8:50 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hi Michel,
>
> I would immediately defer to Sam, but I have spent some considerable time
> catching up on this topic particularly with regard to "rep rap" which
> interests me at a number of levels.
>
> First, machines are getting smaller...owning old manufacturing capacity is
> a waste of time.  Surprisingly often, machines in US plants are WW2 era
> technologies.  I've been in them and seen this first hand.  India has the
> option of moving forward by buying such technologies, but China is already
> there to a large extent.  It is US naivete about the Chinese to think they
> are "behind" in most areas of manutech.  Further, Japan is generally ahead
> of the US in most of these areas.  If China wanted it, they'd buy/steal it
> from Japan.
>
> Second, economies of scale are what is dying...so the whole theory of the
> note is silly.
>
> Third, the real innovations are coming not it stuff but in electronics and
> especially bionics.
>
> Fourth, the major area of change isn't so much CNC screw and cutting tools
> as it is in 3D printers.
>
> If you want to watch this space for small system developments, do a few
> persistent google searches on "rep rap"   It is moving fast, but it isn't
> there yet, and the momentum is for small plants...as it has been.  Italy is
> quite the leader for odd reasons (mostly tax avoidance).  They build
> eye-glass frames, belt buckles, watch and pen parts, etc. for high-end
> brands.  It is an excellent economic strategy.
>
> If I were a co-op now, I'd build elite high price products on open
> source/free technology foundations.  That's the way to compete.  It could be
> chocolates, wine, pen nibs, ties, high end shoes, etc.  Luxury items are
> where the cash is still flowing.  Co-ops should take that cash by joining in
> the production stream while high returns are still feasible.  Soon they will
> be gone.
>
>   On Wed, Apr 28, 2010 at 6:53 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com
> > wrote:
>
>>   Sam, is the prediction below true and realistic?
>>
>>
>> Topic: [singularity] The Ultimate Manufacturing Machines
>> Bryan Bishop <kanzure at gmail.com> Apr 27 12:34PM -0500 ^
>>
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>> From: Steve Richfield <steve.richfield at gmail.com>
>> Date: Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 12:30 PM
>> Subject: [singularity] The Ultimate Manufacturing Machines
>> To: singularity <singularity at v2.listbox.com>
>>
>>
>> There has been much discussion about distribution of resources, yet there
>> is
>> a continuing misunderstanding that seems to underpin all sides of this
>> discussion:
>>
>> REALLY ADVANCED CNC (Continuous Numerical Control) manufacturing
>> machinery,
>> some of which exists today, is instantly reconfigurable to make many very
>> different things. Just put CNC into eBay and see some of what you can now
>> buy on the used market. This march toward ultimately flexible
>> manufacturing
>> machinery is clearly headed toward a manufacturing facility that can
>> efficiently manufacture just about ANYTHING, and do it a LOT cheaper than
>> robots ever could. Of course, these are just another form of robot, able
>> to
>> take files directly from CAD (Computer Aided Design) programs and directly
>> turn them into the desired physical objects.
>>
>> To understand where this is heading, you must first understand the
>> operation
>> of a modern Screw Machine. In these, several, typically 6-8 chucks hold
>> pieces of material that are being machined to a particular shape, In one
>> kerchunk, an equal number of tools are applied to the chucks, but each
>> tool
>> performs a different operation, and the tools are retracted. The chucks
>> then
>> rotate one position, while dropping a finished part into a bin and loading
>> a
>> new piece of unmachined material into a chuck. In short, you can stand
>> there
>> and watch a screw machine going chunk, chunk, chunk and see finished parts
>> emerging at the one-per-chunk rate. No robot could ever operate a lathe to
>> function at anything approaching such a rate.
>>
>> There are other machines that can make ANYTHING from tubing, make ANYTHING
>> from sheet metal, etc. Put an assortment of these machines in one large
>> building, and nothing but another such building can compete.
>>
>> China is now moving in this general direction, buying up the machinery in
>> shut-down American plants. Once this transition is complete, ALL
>> manufacturing will be done in city block sized manufacturing facilities
>> and
>> NOT in anyone's garage, nor with anyone's robots.
>>
>> The ONLY questions here are:
>> 1. Who owns those city blocks?
>> 2. What (if any) tax structure is to be imposed, by a government that is
>> 100% controlled by those city blocks?
>>
>> C'mon now, let's move discussion to THIS quickly emerging reality. Even
>> Communism is "thinking too small", as bigger and bigger manufacturing
>> plants
>> will emerge to out-compete with smaller plants, etc., thereby dooming
>> communes built around such plants, just as communities built around steel
>> mills were doomed to fail.
>>
>> I presently see no socially conscionable choice but government ownership
>> of
>> these plants. No, I don't like this, but we need SOME realistic
>> alternative
>> if this is to be avoided, while not installing something that is even
>> WORSE
>> than government ownership.
>>
>> Any *realistic* thoughts?
>>
>> Steve
>>
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>
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Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Think thank:
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