[p2p-research] Is the future of distributed manufacturing in China?

Wed Apr 28 15:50:42 CEST 2010

Hi Michel,

I would immediately defer to Sam, but I have spent some considerable time
catching up on this topic particularly with regard to "rep rap" which
interests me at a number of levels.

First, machines are getting smaller...owning old manufacturing capacity is a
waste of time.  Surprisingly often, machines in US plants are WW2 era
technologies.  I've been in them and seen this first hand.  India has the
option of moving forward by buying such technologies, but China is already
there to a large extent.  It is US naivete about the Chinese to think they
are "behind" in most areas of manutech.  Further, Japan is generally ahead
of the US in most of these areas.  If China wanted it, they'd buy/steal it
from Japan.

Second, economies of scale are what is dying...so the whole theory of the
note is silly.

Third, the real innovations are coming not it stuff but in electronics and
especially bionics.

Fourth, the major area of change isn't so much CNC screw and cutting tools
as it is in 3D printers.

If you want to watch this space for small system developments, do a few
persistent google searches on "rep rap"   It is moving fast, but it isn't
there yet, and the momentum is for small plants...as it has been.  Italy is
quite the leader for odd reasons (mostly tax avoidance).  They build
eye-glass frames, belt buckles, watch and pen parts, etc. for high-end
brands.  It is an excellent economic strategy.

If I were a co-op now, I'd build elite high price products on open
source/free technology foundations.  That's the way to compete.  It could be
chocolates, wine, pen nibs, ties, high end shoes, etc.  Luxury items are
where the cash is still flowing.  Co-ops should take that cash by joining in
the production stream while high returns are still feasible.  Soon they will
be gone.

On Wed, Apr 28, 2010 at 6:53 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

> Sam, is the prediction below true and realistic?
>
>
> Topic: [singularity] The Ultimate Manufacturing Machines
> Bryan Bishop <kanzure at gmail.com> Apr 27 12:34PM -0500 ^
>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Steve Richfield <steve.richfield at gmail.com>
> Date: Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 12:30 PM
> Subject: [singularity] The Ultimate Manufacturing Machines
> To: singularity <singularity at v2.listbox.com>
>
>
> There has been much discussion about distribution of resources, yet there
> is
> a continuing misunderstanding that seems to underpin all sides of this
> discussion:
>
> REALLY ADVANCED CNC (Continuous Numerical Control) manufacturing machinery,
> some of which exists today, is instantly reconfigurable to make many very
> different things. Just put CNC into eBay and see some of what you can now
> buy on the used market. This march toward ultimately flexible manufacturing
> machinery is clearly headed toward a manufacturing facility that can
> efficiently manufacture just about ANYTHING, and do it a LOT cheaper than
> robots ever could. Of course, these are just another form of robot, able to
> take files directly from CAD (Computer Aided Design) programs and directly
> turn them into the desired physical objects.
>
> To understand where this is heading, you must first understand the
> operation
> of a modern Screw Machine. In these, several, typically 6-8 chucks hold
> pieces of material that are being machined to a particular shape, In one
> kerchunk, an equal number of tools are applied to the chucks, but each tool
> performs a different operation, and the tools are retracted. The chucks
> then
> rotate one position, while dropping a finished part into a bin and loading
> a
> new piece of unmachined material into a chuck. In short, you can stand
> there
> and watch a screw machine going chunk, chunk, chunk and see finished parts
> emerging at the one-per-chunk rate. No robot could ever operate a lathe to
> function at anything approaching such a rate.
>
> There are other machines that can make ANYTHING from tubing, make ANYTHING
> from sheet metal, etc. Put an assortment of these machines in one large
> building, and nothing but another such building can compete.
>
> China is now moving in this general direction, buying up the machinery in
> shut-down American plants. Once this transition is complete, ALL
> manufacturing will be done in city block sized manufacturing facilities and
> NOT in anyone's garage, nor with anyone's robots.
>
> The ONLY questions here are:
> 1. Who owns those city blocks?
> 2. What (if any) tax structure is to be imposed, by a government that is
> 100% controlled by those city blocks?
>
> C'mon now, let's move discussion to THIS quickly emerging reality. Even
> Communism is "thinking too small", as bigger and bigger manufacturing
> plants
> will emerge to out-compete with smaller plants, etc., thereby dooming
> communes built around such plants, just as communities built around steel
> mills were doomed to fail.
>
> I presently see no socially conscionable choice but government ownership of
> these plants. No, I don't like this, but we need SOME realistic alternative
> if this is to be avoided, while not installing something that is even WORSE
> than government ownership.
>
> Any *realistic* thoughts?
>
> Steve
>
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