[p2p-research] Is the future of distributed manufacturing in China?

[Michel Bauwens]

Sam, is the prediction below true and realistic?


Topic: [singularity] The Ultimate Manufacturing Machines
Bryan Bishop <kanzure at gmail.com> Apr 27 12:34PM -0500 ^


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Steve Richfield <steve.richfield at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 12:30 PM
Subject: [singularity] The Ultimate Manufacturing Machines
To: singularity <singularity at v2.listbox.com>


There has been much discussion about distribution of resources, yet there is
a continuing misunderstanding that seems to underpin all sides of this
discussion:

REALLY ADVANCED CNC (Continuous Numerical Control) manufacturing machinery,
some of which exists today, is instantly reconfigurable to make many very
different things. Just put CNC into eBay and see some of what you can now
buy on the used market. This march toward ultimately flexible manufacturing
machinery is clearly headed toward a manufacturing facility that can
efficiently manufacture just about ANYTHING, and do it a LOT cheaper than
robots ever could. Of course, these are just another form of robot, able to
take files directly from CAD (Computer Aided Design) programs and directly
turn them into the desired physical objects.

To understand where this is heading, you must first understand the operation
of a modern Screw Machine. In these, several, typically 6-8 chucks hold
pieces of material that are being machined to a particular shape, In one
kerchunk, an equal number of tools are applied to the chucks, but each tool
performs a different operation, and the tools are retracted. The chucks then
rotate one position, while dropping a finished part into a bin and loading a
new piece of unmachined material into a chuck. In short, you can stand there
and watch a screw machine going chunk, chunk, chunk and see finished parts
emerging at the one-per-chunk rate. No robot could ever operate a lathe to
function at anything approaching such a rate.

There are other machines that can make ANYTHING from tubing, make ANYTHING
from sheet metal, etc. Put an assortment of these machines in one large
building, and nothing but another such building can compete.

China is now moving in this general direction, buying up the machinery in
shut-down American plants. Once this transition is complete, ALL
manufacturing will be done in city block sized manufacturing facilities and
NOT in anyone's garage, nor with anyone's robots.

The ONLY questions here are:
1. Who owns those city blocks?
2. What (if any) tax structure is to be imposed, by a government that is
100% controlled by those city blocks?

C'mon now, let's move discussion to THIS quickly emerging reality. Even
Communism is "thinking too small", as bigger and bigger manufacturing plants
will emerge to out-compete with smaller plants, etc., thereby dooming
communes built around such plants, just as communities built around steel
mills were doomed to fail.

I presently see no socially conscionable choice but government ownership of
these plants. No, I don't like this, but we need SOME realistic alternative
if this is to be avoided, while not installing something that is even WORSE
than government ownership.

Any *realistic* thoughts?

Steve

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