[p2p-research] pessimism on thailand

[Michel Bauwens]

I'm quite pessimistic for thailand right now, I don't think there is a
chance that the pro-democracy forces will not face an attempt at bloody
repression, resulting possibly in civil war.

This is expressed by the first editorial. It's followed by an open letter to
thai media and a commentary on it,


1.



  APRIL 15, 2010, 1:30 A.M. ET
  Thailand Runs Out of Room for Compromise The door is closing on the old
order as the prospects for n
   By PASUK PHONGPAICHIT AND CHRIS
BAKER<http://online.wsj.com/search/term.html?KEYWORDS=PASUK+PHONGPAICHIT+AND+CHRIS+BAKER&bylinesearch=true>
The
violence that left 23 dead and over 800 injured in Bangkok last Saturday
hardened the divisions within society. The possibility of far worse
bloodletting has only increased.
The deaths and injuries came in street fighting between security forces and
red shirt protesters that lasted around an hour. Many photos and videos show
black-camouflaged figures using grenades and assault rifles at close range.
Autopsies found that nine of the 18 dead protesters were killed by
high-velocity fire at long range?probably snipers. Clearly somebody wanted a
serious death toll, but was it the security forces, the protesters, or both?
Security units and right-wing vigilante groups have played a role in past
incidents. The red shirts also have an extremist wing which has explicitly
threatened such violence. Each side is blaming the other, and displaying
photographic evidence. The only certainty now is that the bloodshed has
totally changed the confrontation.
Both sides have martyrs and grounds for revenge. The red shirts are unbowed
and defiant. They have fortified their occupied positions in central Bangkok
and upped their demands for an immediate dissolution of parliament and exile
of the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva. Opponents of the red shirts are
calling for a more severe crackdown.
Mr. Abhisit's government is sometimes pictured as a creature of the
military, but its true position is more complex. Much of the business
community, the professionals and the white-collar middle class in the
capital are still fervent supporters. Among the die-hards, Saturday's
violence offers proof that the red shirt movement is dangerous to the
country. Opinion leaders have quickly resurrected the claim that the red
shirts aim to overthrow the monarchy. Mr. Abhisit reflected these views by
labeling the protesters as "terrorists" and accusing them of maneuvering for
a "major change." These claims may be used to justify more decisive
repression.
The true reason for the die-hards' fear is the depth and intensity of
support for the red movement revealed over the past month. The size and
stamina of the protest belied predictions. A wide spectrum of people joined
the demonstrations, not just the rural poor. Many Bangkokians took part, to
the surprise of those who saw this contest as village against city.
Moreover, the evident intensity of the protesters' commitment exploded any
illusion that this was merely a paid mob. The organization was tight. Until
last Saturday, the protest had a festival feel and was spectacularly
nonviolent. Clearly this is a mass movement expressing a deeply felt demand
for change. The government and military now face the prospect that any
attempted coup or renewed violent oppression could trigger a far larger show
of popular support for the protests.
Most worrying for the government and army has been the effect on monks and
rank-and-file security personnel. Many monks joined the protests. Police
stood aside. Late last week, more and more soldiers were showing signs of
fraternization.
This is not surprising. Monks and privates are mostly drawn from the same
social milieu as the core protesters?the lower rungs of rural and urban
society. They are cousins and schoolfellows. The signs of defection among
these agents of moral and physical authority seem to have panicked the
government into the clumsy, failed operation last weekend.
What then are the prospects for negotiation? From the start the red shirts
have been demanding a quick dissolution of parliament. The army chief seems
to have accepted this as inevitable. The government has offered October. The
red shirts demand tomorrow. The gap would seem to be bridgeable in a
negotiated settlement.
But complexities lurk. Until this recent incident, the ruling Democrat Party
and its coalition allies harbored some hope that they could survive an
election if they had enough time and enough funds to spend in advance. This
hope now seems forlorn. The demonstrations have shown the breadth and
enthusiasm of support for the reds. Martyrdom will enhance this enthusiasm.
Electoral politicians are scrambling to shift ground in line with the voters
on whom they depend. With a big election victory, the reds could reinstate
the 1997 constitution scrapped by the 2006 coup, void the actions of the
coup government, put the coup generals on trial, and bring back former
premier Thaksin Shinawatra. In fear of these prospects, die-hard groups are
howling for repression rather than negotiation. The conservative and
royalist "yellow shirts" have called for martial law. Yet with every day of
delay in restarting negotiations, the Democrats' electoral prospects slip
still lower.
Since the 2006 coup, parliament has been battered and belittled. Two elected
governments have been overthrown. More than 200 elected legislators have
been banned from politics. A new constitution deliberately sets out to
diminish parliament's role. The consequences are now clear. The country
desperately needs to reinstate parliament as a national forum.
Thailand is running out of mechanisms for compromise. Various academic
groups, business groups, peace advocates and elder statesmen have failed to
gain any traction as potential conciliators. By loudly and repeatedly
claiming to be defending the monarchy, the die-hard groups have eroded the
institution's old role as mediator. There remains only a slim chance for Mr.
Abhisit to play a positive role in the emergence of the new political
Thailand, rather than being a casualty in the collapse of the old order.
*Ms. Pasuk and Mr. Baker are the authors of "Thaksin" (Silkworm Books,
2009).*


2.
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/04/18/an-open-letter-to-the-thai-media/

 An open letter to the Thai media April 18th, 2010 by Andrew Walker · 6
Comments<http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/04/18/an-open-letter-to-the-thai-media/#comments>

Here is an open letter written by “The Red Shirt Phrai” a member of the
Progressive Democracy Group (PDG).

*An open letter to major Thai media*

*Stop supporting the tyrannical aristocratic government that abuses the
people** (phrai)*

**

The Red Shirt Phrai

**

“The governance of a country reflects (the liberty of expressing opinions
and information of) the media in that country.”  The closure of almost all
channels for communicating among the red shirts and Thai society (e.g., the
red shirt’s television—the People’s channel, almost 1,000 local radio
stations, and more than 36 web sites) has been done by the Abhisit Vejjajiva
government since April 8, 2010.  Furthermore, major Thai media (most, if not
all) have supported the Abhisit government by reporting half-truths to
deceive people.  This is not different from what has been done during
previous political conflicts between the people and tyrant governments in
the October 1973, October 1976, May 1992, and April 2009 events.  With
advanced technology for communication, the intensity and magnitude of
fabricating and painting the news to distort the facts seems to be more
prevalent than in the past.  Currently, most Thai media (government radio
and television stations, free TV, and local radio stations and ASTV owned by
the People’s Alliance for Democracy—PAD) are acting as a tool for
propagandizing people about the rightness of the Abhisit government in its
brutal mission to crush the red shirt demonstrations at Phan Pha Bridge and
on Radjadamneorn Road on April 10, 2010.

The propaganda of major Thai media has bombarded Thai society almost 24
hours a day through beautiful words but distorted information, such as
suggesting the deaths of 17 red shirts and 4 soldiers (the latest report
while writing this letter) might have been caused by a third party, the
terrorists, retired soldiers who are red shirts, or some red shirts who
pretended to be soldiers for making a scene, etc. These media have also
claimed the crackdown against the red shirts by Thai state security forces
leading to the 21 deaths and more than 800 hundred injured was the fault of
the leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD)
without mentioning the wrongdoings of the government and other parties
involved in the political conflict.  The storm of misinformation through
many communication channels under the complete control of the government is
an attempt to deceive society and avert responsibility for the violent
crackdown against red shirt demonstrators by the Ahbisit government, leading
to the tragedy of  21 deaths.

The formidable security forces used water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets,
live ammunition, and other forms of violence against the unarmed red shirt
protestors at Khok Woa and Jor-Por-Ror intersections around noon on April
10.  The brutal mission increased in intensity in the late afternoon when
tear gas and rubber bullets appeared to be ineffective in crushing the red
shirt protesters.  The state security forces then used a helicopter to drop
tear gas onto the hi-park stage located at Phan Pha Bridge and in front of
the stage, which was  surrounded mostly by the elderly and children, who had
gathered in peace to listen to speeches of some UDD leaders on the stage.
Heavy weapons (e.g., M16 rifles) with live ammunition were used; the guns
shot toward the red shirts standing up in the front lines at Khok Woa
intersection.  The noise of shooting did  not calm down until 10 pm when the
state security forces retreated because of the serious injuries of the
forces commander (i.e., Major General Walit Rotjanaphakdee) and his 4
soldiers—who were later reported dead.

The biased news reports and broadcasts of most Thai media about the
demonstrations and movements of the red shirts, who mostly supported the
previous Thaksin government, may result from various causes: for instance,
1) the failure of system thinking of some media who have been trapped in the
matrix of the old traditional and conservative systems, 2) the ghost of
Thaksin’s system made up to scare Thai society these past four years by some
people who considered themselves an elite and well-educated group (the
yellow-white-pink shirts); up to the present, most Thai media and these
people have been spooked by what they fabricated themselves, or 3) benefits
gained from the invisible power that backs up the Abhisit government through
the image of super persons with high ethics and morality.  The negative
attitudes and unconscious actions of these media toward the red shirt
movement have more or less increased the deep confrontation among people
with different political opinions in Thai society and triggered the 21
deaths from the crackdown of red shirts on April 10.  If the stepped-up
dirty power tactics of the Abhisit government are comparable to a tyrant who
has robbed the parliament and abused the owners (i. e., partly the red
shirts), then the media have been followers in helping the tyrannical
government abuse people.  The media have used their weapons (press and
propaganda broadcasts on TV) to stab the abused people with no discussion of
the wrongs about which they complain.

As one of the red shirt phrais who has been affected by Abhisit’s governance
and the double standard, I would like to request (but not beg) the Thai
media as follows:

1.   Consider and improve your role and duty as media to be more
professional about reporting news from both sides based on morality, ethics,
and conscience than what you have been doing.  Otherwise, you have no right
to criticize, comment, or condemn the others’ wrongdoings because you are
the same or even worse by using pen and ink to make money on the suffering
of phrais.  Do not forget that you are also phrais like us although you have
never thought about or listened to our voices for the past four years.

2.   Stop looking down on the movement of the red shirt phrais and thinking
that they are fighting for an individual (i.e., Dr. Thaksin Shinnawatra); or
they are brainwashed to sacrifice their lives for the movement leaders.  In
fact, all of us have been brainwashed under the patron-client Sakdina
(Sakdina = a status in terms of land given by the sovereign to a nobleman in
accordance with his rank) system that has been part of Thai society for
years.  However, even under this system, no one would be happy to die for
someone else.  Besides, the inconvenient truths that most Thai media cannot
accept are: 1) there are large numbers of red shirt phrais, the majority of
this country (more than 14 million were registered to be the UDD members,
more are waiting to register across the country. About 20% with higher
education (Masters or Ph.D. degrees) from leading universities inside the
country or from abroad do not register to be the UDD members but stand on
the same side; and 2) the demand for the dissolution of parliament and the
return of power to the Thai people to vote for their government is based on
democratic principles and rights.  There is sound evidence to show that the
Abhisit government is illegitimate and lacks authority to govern the country
anymore.  The Abhisit government is heavily corrupt, not able to solve the
critical crisis of the country, and recently became tyrannical by ordering
the violent crackdown against the red shirt phrais leading to 21 deaths with
hundreds injured on April 10.  Additionally, it is clear that the red shirt
phrais need a true democracy of the people, by the people, and for the
people, not the current fake democracy controlled by the aristocratic group.

3.   Stop indirectly or directly supporting the Abhisit government’s use of
double standards for administering phrais with different shirt colors.  For
example, most Thai media hardly criticized the PAD leaders after they took
over Government House for more than 3 months in 2008 and seized Thailand’s
international airport for a week in late November of the same year.
Additionally, the Abhisit government fails to use law enforcement for the
violent actions instigated by PAD leaders.  In contrast, serious law
enforcement has immediately been used by the Abhisit government to crush the
demonstrations of the red shirt phrais on Phan Pha Bridge and at the
Rachaprasong intersection with the strong support of most Thai media, which
attack the movement of the red shirt phrais though many channels every day.

4.   Stop propagandizing half-truths, or making false charges against the
red shirt phrais, unfairly calling them criminals of society; while the real
criminals are unhampered in their fake righteousness with obvious support
from some academics, independent organizations, and most Thai media.

Finally, I believe that the four requests above are reasonable, and it is
possible for the Thai media to reconsider their actions.  Nevertheless,
these depend on the accountability, conscience, and the standpoints of the
media to choose either to be phrai media that acts as slaves of the
aristocratic group forever, or to be phrai media that acts on democratic
principles to report the truth with rightness and fairness for all phrais
of whatever shirt color.





3. COMMENTARY on above:
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