[p2p-research] Fwd: Re: Growing the 21st Century Economy

[Paul D. Fernhout]

Forwarded below I just sent to my congressman, plus I sent a copy to my 
state governor. Basically, this email consolidates ideas I have been 
developing here and on the open manufacturing list. :-)

--Paul Fernhout
http://www.pdfernhout.net/

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: Growing the 21st Century Economy
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2009 20:43:13 -0400
From: Paul D. Fernhout
To: Congressman Scott Murphy

Scott-

In regard to your email about education ("Growing the 21st Century
Economy"), I went to school with Michelle Obama; we are both Princeton '85.
Having had what is claimed to be one of the best educations available, I
know its limits. As important as education is, this country is fooling
itself if it thinks we can educate ourselves out of structural problems with
our economic system.

Related links:
   "The Underground History of American Education" by NYS Teacher of the
year John Taylor Gatto
   http://www.johntaylorgatto.com/underground/toc1.htm
   "Disciplined Minds: A Critical Look at Salaried Professionals and the
Soul-Battering System That Shapes Their Lives" by Jeff Schmidt
   http://www.disciplined-minds.com/
   "The Big Crunch" by Vice Provost of Caltech David Goodstein
   http://www.its.caltech.edu/~dg/crunch_art.html

On jobs, this letter was sent to President Johnson in 1964:
   "The Triple Revolution Memorandum; Cybernation, Weaponry, Human Rights"
   http://educationanddemocracy.org/FSCfiles/C_CC2a_TripleRevolution.htm

That memo explained:
"""
The fundamental problem posed by the cybernation revolution in the U.S. is
that it invalidates the general mechanism so far employed to undergird
people’s rights as consumers. Up to this time economic resources have been
distributed on the basis of contributions to production, with machines and
men competing for employment on somewhat equal terms. In the developing
cybernated system, potentially unlimited output can be achieved by systems
of machines which will require little cooperation from human beings. As
machines take over production from men, they absorb an increasing proportion
of resources while the men who are displaced become dependent on minimal and
unrelated government measures — unemployment insurance, social security,
welfare payments. These measures are less and less able to disguise a
historic paradox: That a substantial proportion of the population is
subsisting on minimal incomes, often below the poverty line, at a time when
sufficient productive potential is available to supply the needs of everyone
in the U.S.
   The existence of this paradox is denied or ignored by conventional
economic analysis. The general economic approach argues that potential
demand, which if filled would raise the number of jobs and provide incomes
to those holding them, is underestimated. Most contemporary economic
analysis states that all of the available labor force and industrial
capacity is required to meet the needs of consumers and industry and to
provide adequate public services: Schools, parks, roads, homes, decent
cities, and clean water and air. It is further argued that demand could be
increased, by a variety of standard techniques, to any desired extent by
providing money and machines to improve the conditions of the billions of
impoverished people elsewhere in the world, who need food and shelter,
clothes and machinery and everything else the industrial nations take for
granted.
   There is no question that cybernation does increase the potential for the
provision of funds to neglected public sectors. Nor is there any question
that cybernation would make possible the abolition of poverty at home and
abroad. But the industrial system does not possess any adequate mechanisms
to permit these potentials to become realities. The industrial system was
designed to produce an ever-increasing quantity of goods as efficiently as
possible, and it was assumed that the distribution of the power to purchase
these goods would occur almost automatically. The continuance of the
income-through-jobs link as the only major mechanism for distributing
effective demand — for granting the right to consume — now acts as the main
brake on the almost unlimited capacity of a cybernated productive system.
"""

All the education in the world won't change that. If anything, it will only
accelerate the process.

The fundamental problem is that demand by healthy humans for goods and
services is ultimately limited (or at least grows slowly) while
technological capacity and productivity is growing exponentially, and the
result of this will be mass unemployment. Here is a related sci-fi story by
Marshall Brain:
   "Manna"
   http://www.marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

Look at the video on this web page and tell me most of your constituents
will have jobs in twenty years as this moves out of the labs in Japan:
   "High-Speed Robot Hand Demonstrates Dexterity and Skillful Manipulation"
http://www.hizook.com/blog/2009/08/03/high-speed-robot-hand-demonstrates-dexterity-and-skillful-manipulation

You can see this explained by this equation here:
"[p2p-research] 60 jobs that will rock the future... (not)"
http://listcultures.org/pipermail/p2presearch_listcultures.org/2009-August/004216.html

Jobs = (Demand + War + Schooling - Abundance)) / (Automation * Design)
Demand is limited (the best things in life are free or cheap).
War and compulsory schooling are evil, as is excessive prison.
Automation and Design are increasing.
Abundance (as stockpiled goods) is increasing faster than decay.
Given that, plot the curve of jobs. :-)

There are several ways to approach this issue, which will be seen soon in a
continuing jobless recovery (even as we may see a couple million green jobs,
I hope).

These are ways to deal with joblessness:
* temporary measures like unemployment insurance and retraining funds, and
when those fail, letting people live with relatives who still have jobs or
be homeless (the USA now has one million homeless schoolchildren, an amount
that has doubled in the last two years).
* government public works like in the 1930s (infrastructure, arts, research,
medicine, etc.)
* a "basic income" for everyone, essentially Social Security and Medicaid
for all with no means testing. See: http://www.usbig.net/
* improved local subsistence like with 3D printing and organic gardening
* a gift economy (like Wikipedia and GNU/Linux)
* a shorter work week (like tried in France)
* increasing advertising to entice people into more debt (one cause of the
current economic crisis as the debt bubble burst)
   http://www.capitalismhitsthefan.com/
* more prisons (employs guards and keeps people out of the labor pool)
* more schooling (employs guards/teachers and keeps people out of the labor
pool)
* more war (employs guards/soldiers, blows up and wastes abundance, and
kills or disables workers to keep them out of the labor pool)

Likely we will see a mix of all those in the future, and in fact, a mix of
all those is what we have now.

The last four points (more advertising & debt, more prisons, schooling, and
war) are not recommend because they are against liberty and prosperity, but
are what we have been heavily relying on to date in the USA to deal with
this situation.

In the short term, a basic income might make the most sense, even as other
trends will play out. A basic income almost passed under Nixon. A basic
income has appeal both to the left (it eliminates poverty) and on the right
(because one can then potentially eliminate a lot of business regulation
like minimum wage laws, family leave acts, affirmative action, some
retirement benefits packages, union rules, and other things).

If you want to make a significant contribution to the USA and the world
stage as a leader in politics for years to come, I'd suggest you think
deeply about this joblessness situation along these lines. :-)

Daniel Patrick Moynihan wrote a book about "The Politics of a Guaranteed
Income" in the 1970s.
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Patrick_Moynihan

See also:
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income
   http://www.basicincome.org/bien/

In general, the reason social benefits in the USA have a bad reaction is
they are only for the poor and are needs based. In Europe, they are for
everyone and so have no stigma and are widely supported.

Again, just take one look at that video about what a robot arm and hand can
do now, and think about how much more computers can do every day relating to
paperwork and speech recognition, and you may soon understand what a crisis
is coming our way, requiring leadership.

"Lao Tzu: To see things in the seed, that is genius. Where there is no
vision, the people perish."

Here is an essay I wrote on why even millionaires should support a basic income:
"[p2p-research] Basic income from a millionaire's perspective?"
http://listcultures.org/pipermail/p2presearch_listcultures.org/2009-August/003949.html

Here is another related essay on how New York State could implement the
beginnings of a basic income by redirecting money currently going to
compulsory schooling:
"Towards a Post-Scarcity New York State of Mind (through homeschooling)"
http://www.pdfernhout.net/towards-a-post-scarcity-new-york-state-of-mind.html

Reforming health care to single payer would also free up $750 billion a year
towards this end. Ending the two wars would free up more. There are lots of
other ways to raise the money, outlined here:
   "How to Find the Financing for Achieving the Star Trek Society"
   http://www.kurtz-fernhout.com/oscomak/AchievingAStarTrekSociety.html

All the best in helping people navigate these difficult times.

--Paul Fernhout
http://www.pdfernhout.net/

Congressman Scott Murphy wrote:
>  <http://scottmurphy.house.gov/img/email-header.jpg> 
> 
> September 28, 2009
> 
>  
> 
> Dear Mr. Fernhout,
> 
> When President Obama visited Hudson Valley Community College last week,
> I was proud to hear him speak about Upstate New York as a shining
> example for the rest of the country as we work to transition into the
> 21st Century innovation economy.   
> 
> I have spent my career working to create jobs in hi-tech businesses
> across Upstate New York, and one of the keys to preparing our economy
> for success is having a well educated work force.  Last week, we heard
> the President lay out three building blocks for innovation: education,
> infrastructure, and research.  This is exactly what we have been
> developing right here in the Capital Region, and what has made our
> region a leader in the innovation economy.
> 
> American higher education has led the world for the past century. As our
> economy becomes more knowledge based, the continued leadership of our
> colleges and universities will be ever more important.  21st Century
> jobs will require increasingly knowledgeable workers, and the innovative
> programs at Hudson Valley Community College and the fine higher
> education institutions located across the Capital Region are key to
> providing them.
> 
> This past week in Congress, I was proud to help pass the Student Aid and
> Financial Responsibility Act, which will expand access to an affordable
> college education to more American students, transform early education
> opportunities and build a world-class community college system.
> 
> Here in Upstate New York, we are already seeing the benefits that come
> from having a quality, higher education system.  Our schools are working
> hand in hand with businesses and government to bring new investments to
> the area, creating thousands of good paying jobs and breathing new life
> into our local economy.
> 
> I would like to thank President Obama for visiting Upstate New York.  I
> am working everyday with local businesses and colleges to spur
> innovation and lead Upstate New York to the forefront of the 21st
> Century global economy.  Please contact my office to be part of the
> effort to unleash the 20th District's entrepreneurial potential.
> 
>  
> 
> 
> Sincerely,
>  <http://scottmurphy.house.gov/UploadedFiles/RepScottMurphySig.gif> 
> Scott Murphy
> Member of Congress 
> 
> P.S. Please click here <http://scottmurphy.house.gov/Forms/EmailSignup/>
> to sign up for future updates or to be removed from this list.
>  
>