[p2p-research] Promoting wellness through p2p, again (was: More crappy flu journalism...)

[Paul D. Fernhout]

Ryan wrote:
> The ultimate p2p story...flu.
> 
> Sent to you by Ryan via Google Reader: More crappy flu journalism, this
> time Alternet [rant alert!] [Effect Measure] via ScienceBlogs :
> Combined Feed by revere none at example.com on 9/26/09

Taken from:
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/09/more_crappy_flu_journalism_thi.php
> I'm afraid I have to complain about crappy journalism again. AlterNet
> is an online newsmagazine I quite like. We've been linked by them
> numerous times and know their influence. Sometimes, though, some very
> smart writers write some very dumb things, even if they do it in a
> smart way. Alas, Joshua Holland has done it today on the front page of
> Alternet.org with a supremely wrongheaded story about why you don't
> have to be scared shitless about swine flu. We agree with that bottom
> line, but how he got there is the problem (that and the fact that he
> doesn't understand much about influenza).

And, more at that URL: "... I won't go through his misunderstandings point 
by point. It's a long article and much of its wrongheadedness is related to 
how he strings together facts and his emphases. ... But in 1918 we didn't 
have factory farms, either, those exquisite hothouses of virulent viruses. 
What are the biggest factory farms? Hogs and poultry. It doesn't much matter 
if this virus came from one originally or not. Their very existence means 
that if an influenza virus gets into that population (as it has for avian 
influenza) it will become enzootic and constitute a continuing experimental 
laboratory for the virus to find the right recipe to wreak havoc. ... But we 
don't even have the beds to give it a try to begin with. Our big city 
emergency rooms periodically and routinely go "on diversion," meaning that 
they divert the ambulance that's on its way their hospital to another 
hospital. The main reason is not the already ludicrous long waits in the ER 
but the shortage of critical care beds, the ones with the ventilators and 
skilled nursing that Holland thinks will now save people seriously ill with 
flu. It's a common mistake. But it's a mistake. Even a bad regular flu 
season can break the system. ..."

I guess I don't understand what is "supremely wrongheaded" in that story?
http://www.alternet.org/media/142877/h1n1_just_isn%27t_that_scary%3A_why_there%27s_no_reason_to_go_overboard_with_swine_flu_hysteria?page=3

Other than, as "Revere", a person who makes his or her living as a medical 
care professional (wonder what conflicts of interest?), points out, the US 
health care system and industrial food system are very broken?

See also:
"Critical Alert: The Swine Flu Pandemic – Fact or Fiction? "
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/04/29/Swine-Flu.aspx
"Your Fear Will Make Some People VERY Rich in Today's Crumbling Economy ... 
More than half a dozen pharmaceutical companies, including Gilead Sciences 
Inc., Roche, GlaxoSmithKline and other companies with a stake in flu 
treatments and detection, have seen a rise in their shares in a matter of 
days, and will likely see revenue boosts if the swine flu outbreak continues 
to spread. Swine flue is extremely convenient for governments that would 
have very soon have to dispose of billions of dollars of Tamiflu stock, 
which they bought to counter avian flu, or H5N1.  The US government ordered 
20 million doses, costing $2 billion, in October, 2005, and around that time 
the UK government ordered 14.6 million doses.  Tamiflu’s manufacturer, 
Roche, has confirmed that the shelf life of its anti-viral is three years. 
As soon as Homeland Security declared a health emergency, 25 percent -- 
about 12 million doses -- of Tamiflu and Relenza treatment courses were 
released from the nation's stockpile. However, beware that the declaration 
also allows unapproved tests and drugs to be administered to children. Many 
health- and government officials are more than willing to take that chance 
with your life, and the life of your child. But are you? "

Or:

"Despite Anti-Vitamin D Bias, CDC Stumbles on Deficiency Link to H1N1 Deaths"
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/09/22/Low-Vitamin-D-Increases-Flu-Death-Risk-in-Kids.aspx
"As the advent of the experimental swine flu vaccine program draws near, I 
want to highlight the information coming out that confirms the importance of 
having sufficient vitamin D levels in order to limit your chances of 
contracting the swine flu, or any other influenza for that matter."

Or:

"What to do If You Are Forced to Take Swine Flu Shot "
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/09/19/The-Truth-about-the-Flu-Shot.aspx
"Treatment for Toxic Vaccine Exposure"

Or:

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2008/10/21/avoid-flu-shots-vitamin-d-is-a-better-way.aspx
"""
Another 2009 report in the journal Pediatric Research stated that infants 
and children appear more susceptible to viral rather than bacterial 
infections when deficient in vitamin D. And that, based on the available 
evidence showing a strong connection between vitamin D, infections, and 
immune function in children, vitamin D supplementation may be a valuable 
therapy in pediatric medicine. ... I often find that some of the simplest 
explanations are the truest, and this sounds about as simple as it gets. 
And, getting appropriate amounts of sunshine (or taking a vitamin D 
supplement when you can’t get healthy amounts of sun exposure) is one of my 
KEY preventive strategies against the cold and flu, as it has such a 
strengthening effect on your immune system.  ... I have not received a flu 
shot nor had the flu in over 20 years. Here are the other “secrets” I use to 
keep the flu (and other illnesses) at bay:
     * Eat right for your nutritional type, including avoiding sugar
     * Eliminate sugar from your diet
     * Eat garlic regularly
     * Consume a high-quality krill oil daily
     * Exercise
     * Get adequate sleep
     * Address emotional stress
     * Wash your hands regularly (but not excessively)
"""

Granted, Mercola sells products, so he can not be considered unbiased. But 
many others who don't sell products will tell you the same about vitamin D 
and omega-3s and all sorts of other things.

Think of it this way: If flu is the symptom, what is the disease? :-)

Well, that epidemiologist has pointed out at least two parts of the disease 
-- a broken health care system and a broken food production system. We could 
even dig deeper if we thought of *those* as symptoms of deeper issues. 
Although rather than talk about fixing those two factors, he or she 
apparently wants to patch over a diseased infrastructure in the USA by 
addressing the symptoms (the flu) with a vaccination rather than direct 
change of the infrastructure. This is similar to polio eradication campaigns 
that go around African cities giving kids polio vaccination shots but do 
nothing about sewage running in the streets that spreads all sorts of other 
diseases too.

Let's say we should be "scared shitless" of some new flu, like the 
epidemiologist suggests. Quick, before our brains shut down by that fear 
mongering, let's use the remaining time to think. What should we do as a 
society if we are seriously worried about the flu? First off, we should have 
universal access to health care (including dental care to eat well) without 
bankruptcy. We should have medical facilities and medical staff (perhaps 
with many volunteers on standby) scaled to handle pandemics, not routine 
needs. We should have universal access to good wholesome organic food, not 
produced in overcrowded factory farms with animals pumped full of 
antibiotics and other nasty stuff. Maybe we should have universal 
prohibition of misleading fast food advertising if that can be done without 
censorship, or if not, at least wellness promotion should get equal time on 
mainstream media with fast food advertising (like things used to be decades 
ago with the "equal time" law). We need a society that produces less bad 
stress and lets people get more and better rest. (Remember, the pandemic flu 
of 1918 was right after a stressful world war.) We need a global rapid 
transit system (maybe even not by air) with more fresh air in cabins and 
less crowding that spreads disease; maybe we even need a society where 
people don't feel they have to travel so much or so quickly. We need more 
joy and humor in our society. We need an infrastructure that encourages 
walking and other healthy outdoor activities, so people get more Vitamin D 
naturally. And so on. I'd suggest that would be the best place to spend most 
of our money rather than more vaccines, assuming we have to make a choice. 
More ideas might be found here:
   http://www.patchadams.org/
Or here:
   http://www.humorproject.com/

In that humorous light, let me try another of my off-the-wall thought 
experiments with dollar figures. :-)

Consider:
   "France's model healthcare system"
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/08/11/frances_model_healthcare_system/
"Although the French system faces many challenges, the World Health 
Organization rated it the best in the world in 2001 because of its universal 
coverage, responsive healthcare providers, patient and provider freedoms, 
and the health and longevity of the country's population. The United States 
ranked 37. The French system is also not inexpensive. At $3,500 per capita 
it is one of the most costly in Europe, yet that is still far less than the 
$6,100 per person in the United States."

Now, cost in the USA may be higher for various reasons, so let's not assume 
we could save the full half of US health cost (half of 2009 spending is 
about US$1.25 trillion or so) by the USA going to the French model. France 
spends about 33% less of their GDP on health care compared to the USA to 
achieve about the same results. Going on that lesser figure, that is a 
savings of about US$750 billion per year  if the USA adopted the French 
approach (so, only about about half the actual difference in costs, given 
the USA's GDP per person is higher).

Every year, US$750 billion could buy a lot of renewal of the US 
infrastructure, a lot of health-related education, a lot of research, a lot 
of walking trails, a lot of stand-by medical care capacity, a lot of organic 
farm subsidies, a lot of work on a healthier global mass transit system, a 
lot of p2p health boards, and so on. There is a law of diminishing returns 
on many things, which is why the extra health care expenditures in the USA 
do not buy as much health when spent on doctoring as opposed to, say, 
convenient walking trails, organic food, or yoga classes.

Now, I've already pointed out how unfair it would be to burden Michel with 
distributing US$500 million a day every day for thirty years :-) if the US 
had not launched two wars to increase terrorism. (That's not a misstatement, 
sadly, as the wars basically do increase terrorism and are costing that 
much.) Now, maybe Michel could handle giving away US$500 million a day to 
promote p2p and a sustainable society without collapsing under the strain, 
assuming anyone could. :-) But let me lay it on the financial line -- if the 
USA had a universal health system similar to France (including house calls 
as in France, etc.), saving US$750 billion a year (or more), then I'd 
suggest it would be an unfair situation to force Michel to, on top of US$500 
million a day, have to give away *another* US$2 billion a day to promote 
wellness in the USA (or globally, since these diseases know no bounds, so a 
healthier globe means a healthier USA). :-)

Basically, as great a guy as Michel is, it seems extremely unfair to expect 
just one guy to give away, total, US$2.5 billion a day between the money 
saved by not creating more terrorists and the money saved by not unfairly 
rationing health care through letting tens of thousands of US Americans die 
ever year (just miles away from the people who could make them well). Yes, 
that is not a misstatement, it actually costs *less* to cover everyone 
directly for a variety of reasons.

Every day, in such an alternative universe, Michel would be burdened with 
yet another US$2.5 billion to give away. Just seems too hard. I would not 
want to be stuck with that burden. :-)

And imagine having to be responsible for 25 of these headlines every single day:
"Lilly Heir Makes $100 Million Bequest to Poetry Magazine"
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/19/books/lilly-heir-makes-100-million-bequest-to-poetry-magazine.html
"""
Ruth Lilly, 87, an heir to the Eli Lilly pharmaceutical fortune, submitted 
several poems to Poetry magazine in the 1970's and was rewarded only with 
handwritten rejection notes from the editor, Joseph Parisi. Evidently she 
did not take the rejections to heart. Mr. Parisi announced her gift at the 
magazine's 90th-anniversary dinner on Friday.
   "It's a real mind-blower," said the United States' poet laureate, Billy 
Collins, who was at the dinner. "Poetry has always had the reputation as 
being the poor little match girl of the arts. Well, the poor little match 
girl just hit the lottery."
   This gift has suddenly turned Poetry from a struggling journal little 
known outside literary circles to one of the world's richest publications. 
Mr. Parisi said it was by far the largest single donation ever made to an 
institution devoted to poetry.
   "There just isn't anything to compare it to," Mr. Parisi said. "We will 
be the largest foundation in the world devoted to poetry. It's a huge 
responsibility, as I'm realizing every day more and more."
"""

Every single day of the year, year after year, twenty five headlines like 
that. :-) It would be a heavy burden. I'm not sure any human alive could 
take the stress. It would not be good for Michel's health. :-)

And, it is also true, that many organizations given such grants might 
collapse too, because, it is truly hard to spend money well if you take it 
seriously. Still, we could try. :-)
   "Slashdot | Is Open Source the Answer To Giving?"
   http://news.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/04/20/1313223

But, as Michel said before, he's willing to try for the US$500 million a 
day. I say, given his "can do" spirit, let's give Michel another US$2 
billion a day to promote global wellness, if he's willing to risk his own 
health from the stress, and, reluctantly, :-) in order to save money, we 
should grudgingly give everyone in the USA access to the US health care 
system including the upgrade to house-calls in urban areas. :-)
"Why French doctors still make house calls"
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/france/090309/why-french-doctors-still-make-house-calls

It's been pointed out to me on the open manufacturing list that US cancer 
survival rates are somewhat better than in France for many cancers (but not 
all), but I'd still suggest these other improvements would reduce cancer 
incidence in the USA, so, overall, it would balance out, and then some, 
given the extra savings would be spent on health-promoting infrastructure 
upgrades.

Still, not to do Michel any injustice, but that's adding up to giving away 
US$914 billion a year, or about US$3000 per US resident per year (so, 
US$12000 for a family of four). Or, that's about US$150 per person per year 
globally (or, about the cost of a really nice holiday present for everyone 
on the planet :-). That's a lot of money and a lot of time to keep up with 
the needs of everyone on the globe.

Michel might have to borrow some technology from Santa Claus to keep up a 
"naughty and nice" list for giving so much stuff to almost seven billion 
people. :-) But, there is a mainstream media precedent: :-)
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Santa_Clause
"Scott Calvin is a father who finds himself contractually bound to become 
Santa Claus when he unintentionally puts on the previous Santa's suit. ... 
Meanwhile, at the North Pole, Charlie helps Scott and the elves perfect a 
new sled and communication devices. ..."

So, rather than force Michel to be something that would be hard for anyone 
to be, tracking the needs of almost seven billion people to provide one 
really good present each year, it might make more sense to provide that 
money as a basic income instead, and let individuals make their own choices 
on how to spend it towards improving their own health. Then Michel could 
focus his attention on other things less stressful than giving away all that 
money. :-)

Note that:
   http://www.globalissues.org/article/26/poverty-facts-and-stats
"Almost two in three people lacking access to clean water survive on less 
than $2 a day, with one in three living on less than $1 a day."

Dirty water contributes to a lot of global disease. So, an extra US$150 a 
year globally per person as a basic income might make a huge difference to 
reducing the risks of pandemics. It might be a far better investment in the 
long term than more flu shots, especially if everyone follows the advice 
above to eat better and get more Vitamin D.

US$150 a year per person would be enough the first year to give *everyone* 
in the world an OLPC XO-2 in 2010:
"OLPC 2.0 dual touchscreen mockup surfaces in the wild"
http://www.engadget.com/2009/01/28/olpc-2-0-dual-touchscreen-mockup-surfaces-in-the-wild/

Although, in practice, village learning centers with fablabs might be a 
better thing than individual laptops.

Then, everyone in the world could do p2p knowledge sharing. :-) This P2P 
research list might get a little crowded with almost seven billion new 
subscribers, but Michel, no longer burdened by having to give away billions 
of dollars each day, would then have more time for dealing with *that* 
problem. :-)

Then, the second year, everyone could get US$150 to order things through 
that computer network (through individual XOs or at village centers), which 
would also have a gift economy aspect too. It would be a tremendous boost 
for the global economy outside the USA. It would give everyone *hope* which 
in turn might lead to more optimism and better health everywhere including 
in the USA.

We might see an enormous improvement in global health as people had access 
to books like Hesperian's "Where there is no doctor":
   http://www.hesperian.org/about.php
as well as the work of *another* global-communication-oriented Michel from 
Belgium, Dr. Michel Loots:
   http://humaninfo.org/
"For the past 10 years, we have focused on providing information, data 
processing and dissemination services to UN and development organizations. 
Our goal is to empower UN agencies, governments, governmental agencies, and 
humanitarian and development organizations with know-how, technology, 
open-source software and open source websites, digital library and 
data-processing solutions. We welcome any collaboration to create CD-ROMs 
and digital libraries in humanitarian and development fields. In this 
respect, we invite you to explore our website which will offer you more 
information on our activities."

I can't even imagine what would happen globally if those two Michels were 
ever in the same room talking about p2p and health care, even without US$912 
billion a year to spend on that. :-)

Anyway, even for the flu, the problem is not money resources so much as 
ideology and priorities and how they shape our physical resources. We could 
do far more with what we have been given as a country in the USA or as a 
global society. Far, far more. So, that's why *both* the cited articles are 
"crappy journalism" in that sense. :-)

This US$750 billion a year misspent is the elephant in the medical waiting 
room no one is talking about. And that mis-expenditure is projected to 
double over the next ten years.
   http://www.nchc.org/facts/cost.shtml
"National health spending is expected to reach $2.5 trillion in 2009, 
accounting for 17.6 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). By 2018, 
national health care expenditures are expected to reach $4.4 trillion—more 
than double 2007 spending."

Can you imagine that?

Although I just can't see that myself. I think health care costs will drop 
if more medically-inclined people have access to training simulators 
(virtual and real)
   "Simulators key to doctor training "
   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7942750.stm
as well as far cheaper medical technology as computers and sensors continue 
to drop in price, as well as when medical robots help with care.
   "Robots Help Japan Care For Its Elderly"
   http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/industry/1288241.html

--Paul Fernhout
http://www.pdfernhout.net/