[p2p-research] No Time for the Singularity

[Paul D. Fernhout]

Some people here might like this, and it reflects a lot of my own beliefs:
   "Worldchanging: Bright Green: No Time for the Singularity" by Karl Schroeder
   http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/008107.html
"""
If there's to be a miraculous transformation of human civilization, it has 
to be accomplished by us, right now, before we develop our miraculous 
nanobots, genetically engineered carbon-sucking trees, or polywell fusion 
reactors. (That said, technology is a large part of the answer—and 
game-changing breakthroughs are possible—but until proven otherwise we have 
to assume we'll be using currently possible solutions such as wind power, 
agrichar and a global coal moratorium.)
   We have the social stability, the resources and the technology now; all 
we need is the will. We will still need all three of these things 25 years 
from now, and we're likely to be seriously wanting in at least two of them 
if things continue as they are.
   The technological singularity may be real, but who cares? By the time it 
happens, we'll have won or lost our grand battle with fate.
"""

That essay did not make the further link though that any singularity we get 
may be deeply shaped by what we do now to make the world a better place. For 
example, if the technological powerhouse of the USA moves towards health 
care as a basic human right, that may produce a very different sort of 
singularity than otherwise. In that case, it is the difference between a 
singularity where everyone goes together in happiness than a singularity 
where only the wealthy (often, though not always, people with narrow 
definitions of self and self-interest) have access to advanced medical 
technologies related to human augmentation or life extension (which would 
seem something likely to end badly for most people).

Something to remember, from an article published two days ago, about past 
and present plans for global destruction:
   "American Planning for a Hundred Holocausts" by Daniel Ellsberg
http://www.truthdig.com/report/print/20090910_a_hundred_holocausts_an_insiders_window_into_us_nuclear_policy/

In the same way that making the world better now might mean a happier 
singularity, it would seem that such a nuclear disaster would be less likely 
to happen the more we reshape our society into a peaceful, prosperous, 
compassionate, and enlightened place, like with work going on here on the 
p2p list.

Or in general, even if more compassion in politics may sound unlikely 
sometimes like with the current regressive US health plans, it's still 
important to just remember Howard Zinn's "Optimism of Uncertainty".
   http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1108-21.htm
"""
In this awful world where the efforts of caring people often pale in 
comparison to what is done by those who have power, how do I manage to stay 
involved and seemingly happy? I am totally confident not that the world will 
get better, but that we should not give up the game before all the cards 
have been played. The metaphor is deliberate; life is a gamble. Not to play 
is to foreclose any chance of winning.
   To play, to act, is to create at least a possibility of changing the 
world. There is a tendency to think that what we see in the present moment 
will continue. We forget how often we have been astonished by the sudden 
crumbling of institutions, by extraordinary changes in people's thoughts, by 
unexpected eruptions of rebellion against tyrannies, by the quick collapse 
of systems of power that seemed invincible. What leaps out from the history 
of the past hundred years is its utter unpredictability. This confounds us, 
because we are talking about exactly the period when human beings became so 
ingenious technologically that they could plan and predict the exact time of 
someone landing on the moon, or walk down the street talking to someone 
halfway around the earth. ...
"""

Also related, about free and open source and its role in shaping a better 
future:
   "Open the Future" by Jamas Cascio
   http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000404.html
"""
(This essay was one of the pieces of the last, unpublished issue of Whole 
Earth Review. I initially wrote it in November of 2002, revised it in 
February of 2003, and lightly edited it today. The issue focused on the 
"singularity" -- a point in the near future where change happens so fast 
that pre-singularity people simply couldn't comprehend the lives of 
post-singularity people -- and this essay looked to ways to make such an 
event as safe and democratic as possible. Even if you set aside its 
references to a "singularity," however, I think the arguments it makes are 
still quite relevant to the issues we confront today. Warning: it's over 
2600 words, a bit longer than our usual post length. --Jamais)
"""

So, all these big issues, the economy, health care, green energy, zero 
emissions manufacturing, preventing nuclear war, having a happier 
singularity, free and open source including about subsistence living and a 
gift economy, human rights in accessing a commons through a basic income, 
moving beyond compulsory schooling and other large-scare imprisonment, 
dealing fairly with the consequences of global warming, other policy 
reforms, and so on, are all connected in a way. Related:
   "A Wombat talks for one minute about a global mindshift"
   http://www.global-mindshift.org/memes/wombat.swf
(Though the Wombat is wrong about space travel in the long term, though he 
is right about it for the next couple of decades. :-)

--Paul Fernhout
http://www.pdfernhout.net/