[p2p-research] What's different about this economic downturn? -- the severe unemployment

Mon Sep 7 15:38:31 CEST 2009

Hi Ryan,

I agree that we cannot know if things will turn happy and healthy, get worse
before they get better, or any other scenario, and like you, I work for the
'better' to the degree that we can ourselves see what is indeed 'better'.
Nevertheless, I think there are very powerful trends towards transparency,
openness, participation and trust-modes, with tremendous potential. I must
admit that my belief is that after a certain chaotic intermezzo, we'll have
a new balance in society with a substantial more beneficial social contract
for the commoners.

As for Asia, my perception may indeed be skewed. Certainly in Thailand,
there are long hours, low wages, but also substantially less stress, and the
middle class lives demonstrably better than in Europe and the U.S., because
of the cheap services and personal care they can get, though they make up
only 25% of the population. I also think, that it is possible to be poor
here with a lot more dignity than in West. It could be that in countries
with Chinese dominance, there is also high stress, my visits to Singapore
and Hong Kong would certainly suggest that.

Just observations of course, nothing scientific <g>

Michel

On Mon, Sep 7, 2009 at 8:28 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Your arguments make sense on labour, Michel.  I'm not sure they are more
> explanatory than others, but they make sense.  I do believe automation is
> starting to bite significantly.  I agree that Paul is a bit out there on his
> claims from my perspective, but I see the trend he senses coming.  The whole
> of the service industry rise was about automation in a sense...computers,
> specifically.  It is getting far worse.  I see it in government every day
> where we could trivially automate away thousands of jobs and choose not
> to.   It is the loss of a concept of value for money that is twisting
> capitalism so badly now.  Markets just don't work for labor...without
> complete mayhem ensuing.
>
> I disagree with Sam on US corruption and have a lot of first hand data on
> this topic...the perception is certainly true.  But I don't wish to find
> myself defending US corporate interests which are dirty enough for me.
> They're just not MORE dirty than the rest...and often are less
> so--demonstrably.  I'd rate Italy, Russia and the UK amongst the worse for
> corruption for mainline countries.  Transparency International is good on
> both government and non-government topics here.  Most of the good governance
> research and ideas ironically comes out of US business schools.  It isn't
> offsetting for the harm, but it is still welcome.  The US corruption is out
> in the open because we have a better and larger set of journalists than most
> nations.  Again, perceptions are otherwise, but the US is overwhelmingly
> bigger in blogging, small journalism outlets, offstream magazines, etc.
> Most nations rely on a quality core (e.g. BBC / Economist) the US has
> thousands of options to Russia, Britain, Germany or Chinas few.
>
> Asia is the future of work...long hours, high stress, high GINI indices.  I
> wish the future was Germany...high skill, low stress.  I do believe there is
> far more human capital than we could ever put to productive use now.  My own
> guess is that means exterminations in one way or another.  I really don't
> share the view of most here that things turn out happy and healthy.  I work
> for that...but I doubt that it will come to pass.  Of course I hope I am
> wrong.  Perhaps it is the way my brain is wired, but I definitely sense
> disaster looming...not prosperity and happiness.  That is why I relish
> reading Paul's long paeans to progress.  It gives me a bit of hope.
>
> Ryan
>
>   On Mon, Sep 7, 2009 at 2:15 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> within capitalism, jobs are dependent on the demand side ... and the
>> policy of neoliberalism has been to gut the popular demand side by focusing
>> on the top 1-10% .. if you'd restore the part of labour, demand would be
>> restored ...
>>
>> overemployed is more difficult to gauge, certainly if you live in one of
>> the East Asian countries which has chosen industrious development over
>> industrial development, then you'd see that a typical westerner is doing the
>> job of 3-4 people over here .. so it doesn't look much like overemployment
>> seen from this side ... I would rather say most people are overworked, hence
>> there is underemployment ..
>>
>> overpricing is I guess a matter of global competition ... services are
>> less subject to that than industrial products and the more complexity
>> embedded in knowledge work, the more unique it becomes ...
>>
>> there is another way to look at it: as we are able to be more and more
>> productive and create more and more social wealth, many people could share
>> more of humanity's wealth ... but this requires a different redistribution
>> of human wealth ..
>>
>> I do not give credence though to the automation argument of paul .. this
>> has been a recurrent theme in every crisis, yet employment has been growing
>> steadily, with woman entering the workforce etc... The simple reason is:
>> human needs are evolving,and there is plenty of cultural work, environmental
>> work, relational work that is very hard to automate, and even should not be
>> automated ... (machine massage sucks, for example, because it doesn't give
>> you the human relation that is part and parcel of such a service). There is
>> enough 'work' for everybody, even given industrial automation,
>>
>> but of course, a deeper question is whether we should continue to talk
>> about 'work' at all ..
>>
>> Michel
>>
>>   On Sat, Sep 5, 2009 at 8:38 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>>  For those watching for the end of capitalism...it is the loss of
>>> employment that has people particularly spooked.  No one knows where future
>>> paying jobs are coming from...several industries...e.g. academia, social
>>> networking, manufacturing, traditional energy, banking, law, government,
>>> seem overpriced and overemployed.
>>>
>>> http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/20090904.gif
>>>
>>> --
>>> Ryan
>>>
>>>
>>>
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>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Research:
>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>
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>>
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Ryan Lanham
> rlanham1963 at gmail.com
> Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
> P.O. Box 633
> Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
> Cayman Islands
> (345) 916-1712
>
>
>
>

-- 
Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Research:
http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI

P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net

Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
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