[p2p-research] Solar crisis set to hit in 2010, 50% of manufacturers may not survive

[Michel Bauwens]

both are true Paul, capitalism has always been characterized by recurrent
crisis of overproduction, irrespective of social need ... so solar will
grow, but not without crises,

Michel

On Sun, Sep 6, 2009 at 6:46 PM, Paul D. Fernhout <
pdfernhout at kurtz-fernhout.com> wrote:

> A solar article a couple links from the one Ryan just posted:
>
> "Solar crisis set to hit in 2010, 50% of manufacturers may not survive,
> says The Information Network"
> http://www.digitimes.com/print/a20090903VL200.html
>
> Now, according to "cognitive dissonance" theory:
>  "Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad
> Decisions, and Hurtful Acts"
>  http://www.amazon.com/Mistakes-Were-Made-But-Not/dp/0151010986
> if you see believe our society is doomed, you will see that headline as
> confirmation of your beliefs: "See, I told you so, this solar stuff would
> never work. Too expensive. Nobody wants it. Look, solar companies are dying
> on the vine. We *are* doomed."
>
> Confirmatory statements the article:
> """
> The solar industry is at a critical stage and 50% of existing solar
> manufacturers may not survive 2010, according to The Information Network.
> "The market research firm recently noted massive inventory buildup and huge
> overcapacity were having a serious impact on the solar panel industry and
> manufacturers, and Dr. Robert Castellano, president of The Information
> Network has now pointed out that inventory is averaging 122 days in 2009
> versus 71 days in 2008. Capacity utilization dropped to 27.9% in 2009 from
> 48.0% in 2008." ... Solar panel manufacturers that have reported loses just
> in the past few weeks include Energy Conversion Devices, JA Solar, LDK
> Solar, Q-Cells, ReneSola, Solar Power, and Yingli Green Energy Holding.
> """
>
> But, if you think we are heading for abundance, then, you see such a
> headline, consider the global recession and Spain's recent subsidy policy
> changes, and say: "See, I told you so, this solar stuff is taking off, and
> prices are dropping, and the weak players who are not so innovative and not
> keeping up with Nanosolar and First Solar and thin film solar technology are
> falling by the wayside, and we are seeing the knee of an exponential trend
> towards cheaper and cheaper solar, and are quickly moving past the tipping
> point where solar is cheaper than coal. We are *saved*." :-)
>
> From the article:
> """
> A key reason is increased supply from China, which added an additional 1GW
> of capacity. The price per watt has now dropped to US$1.80 for
> polysilicon-based products, which is lower than the US$1.85 level The
> Information Network previously thought the industry would see at the end of
> 2009. By way of comparison, the average selling price in the third quarter
> of 2008 was US$4.05 per watt. ... Average selling prices could drop below
> US$1 per watt in 2010 and US$0.50 in 2011. As many as 50% of the more than
> 200 solar manufacturers, mired in red ink with current selling prices above
> US$2.00 per watt, may not survive, The Information Network stated.
> """
>
> Whose right? :-) Well, as George Orwell said, (quoted in that book),
> mistaken beliefs often get resolved on the physical battlefield (or, I'd
> add, in the economic battlefield).
>
> Related:
>  "A Thin-Film Solar Panel Installation"
>  http://cleantechnica.com/2008/05/24/a-thin-film-solar-panel-installation/
> """
> Magco bought their solar from Uni-Solar, which produces triple-junction
> laminate panels. That means they laminate the photovoltaic chemicals onto a
> thin sheet of metal in three layers; each layer reacts to a different range
> of light. They also laminate a sealant on the panel to protect it from the
> elements. The benefit of this system is that it reacts better to low or
> indirect light. Think cloudy days and the hours around dusk and dawn, a.
> Uni-Solar’s panels operate around 12% efficiency, but they claim to
> out-perform other forms of PV solar in indirect light, which means they
> could produce more electricity in certain real-world conditions (cloudy
> days). The laminate production method also decreases cost because expensive
> silicon and mounting racks are not required. Thin-Film Solar Panel
> InstallationIn fact, these thin-film solar panels are glued straight onto
> the roof. (See picture.) ... What if you and your neighbors want to go solar
> but can’t afford it? Bulk your order and get it done at the same time.
> Combining your orders will reduce costs in man-hours and equipment (think
> crane rentals). Naturally you can also get a better deal on the panels
> themselves if you buy in larger quantity.
> """
>
> So, gloomy doomy news or sunny shiny news. Take your pick from the same
> article. :-)
>
> --Paul Fernhout
> http://www.pdfernhout.net/
>
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