[p2p-research] Solar crisis set to hit in 2010, 50% of manufacturers may not survive

[Paul D. Fernhout]

A solar article a couple links from the one Ryan just posted:

"Solar crisis set to hit in 2010, 50% of manufacturers may not survive, says 
The Information Network"
http://www.digitimes.com/print/a20090903VL200.html

Now, according to "cognitive dissonance" theory:
   "Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad 
Decisions, and Hurtful Acts"
   http://www.amazon.com/Mistakes-Were-Made-But-Not/dp/0151010986
if you see believe our society is doomed, you will see that headline as 
confirmation of your beliefs: "See, I told you so, this solar stuff would 
never work. Too expensive. Nobody wants it. Look, solar companies are dying 
on the vine. We *are* doomed."

Confirmatory statements the article:
"""
The solar industry is at a critical stage and 50% of existing solar 
manufacturers may not survive 2010, according to The Information Network. 
"The market research firm recently noted massive inventory buildup and huge 
overcapacity were having a serious impact on the solar panel industry and 
manufacturers, and Dr. Robert Castellano, president of The Information 
Network has now pointed out that inventory is averaging 122 days in 2009 
versus 71 days in 2008. Capacity utilization dropped to 27.9% in 2009 from 
48.0% in 2008." ... Solar panel manufacturers that have reported loses just 
in the past few weeks include Energy Conversion Devices, JA Solar, LDK 
Solar, Q-Cells, ReneSola, Solar Power, and Yingli Green Energy Holding.
"""

But, if you think we are heading for abundance, then, you see such a 
headline, consider the global recession and Spain's recent subsidy policy 
changes, and say: "See, I told you so, this solar stuff is taking off, and 
prices are dropping, and the weak players who are not so innovative and not 
keeping up with Nanosolar and First Solar and thin film solar technology are 
falling by the wayside, and we are seeing the knee of an exponential trend 
towards cheaper and cheaper solar, and are quickly moving past the tipping 
point where solar is cheaper than coal. We are *saved*." :-)

 From the article:
"""
A key reason is increased supply from China, which added an additional 1GW 
of capacity. The price per watt has now dropped to US$1.80 for 
polysilicon-based products, which is lower than the US$1.85 level The 
Information Network previously thought the industry would see at the end of 
2009. By way of comparison, the average selling price in the third quarter 
of 2008 was US$4.05 per watt. ... Average selling prices could drop below 
US$1 per watt in 2010 and US$0.50 in 2011. As many as 50% of the more than 
200 solar manufacturers, mired in red ink with current selling prices above 
US$2.00 per watt, may not survive, The Information Network stated.
"""

Whose right? :-) Well, as George Orwell said, (quoted in that book), 
mistaken beliefs often get resolved on the physical battlefield (or, I'd 
add, in the economic battlefield).

Related:
   "A Thin-Film Solar Panel Installation"
   http://cleantechnica.com/2008/05/24/a-thin-film-solar-panel-installation/
"""
Magco bought their solar from Uni-Solar, which produces triple-junction 
laminate panels. That means they laminate the photovoltaic chemicals onto a 
thin sheet of metal in three layers; each layer reacts to a different range 
of light. They also laminate a sealant on the panel to protect it from the 
elements. The benefit of this system is that it reacts better to low or 
indirect light. Think cloudy days and the hours around dusk and dawn, a. 
Uni-Solar’s panels operate around 12% efficiency, but they claim to 
out-perform other forms of PV solar in indirect light, which means they 
could produce more electricity in certain real-world conditions (cloudy 
days). The laminate production method also decreases cost because expensive 
silicon and mounting racks are not required. Thin-Film Solar Panel 
InstallationIn fact, these thin-film solar panels are glued straight onto 
the roof. (See picture.) ... What if you and your neighbors want to go solar 
but can’t afford it? Bulk your order and get it done at the same time. 
Combining your orders will reduce costs in man-hours and equipment (think 
crane rentals). Naturally you can also get a better deal on the panels 
themselves if you buy in larger quantity.
"""

So, gloomy doomy news or sunny shiny news. Take your pick from the same 
article. :-)

--Paul Fernhout
http://www.pdfernhout.net/