[p2p-research] Scientific American: Does Economics Violate the Laws of Physics?

[Ryan Lanham]

There are three "big" questions in these discussions as I see them.

If Paul is even remotely correct, and I do not dismiss his ideas at all, he
is onto the biggest one...which Michel is also nipping at and I am starting
to blog...which is, what will be done with all the people?  This really is
fundamental.  I fear the worst.  Others see great futures.  I see
holocausts.

Like the newspaper trends, the moves toward robotic replacement of labor is
simply undeniable.  It is happening...economists call it "productivity."
That is, doing more with fewer people.  And yet we have more people.  So
that means more "doing."

That begs the second big question...Can growth, real growth, continue?  If
not, why not?  That is the question where neoclassical economics comes into
doubt.  I think the idea of simple models like the Solow Growth differential
equations I struggled with 25 years ago as an undergraduate in Hugh Rose's
class on them is rapidly passing.  We know that the earth is, for producible
resources, a closed system.  Energy from the sun is real, but transforming
it to useful work is something different...and quite possibly a closed
system as well.  The jury is out, but for now, no one has advanced a
realistic plan for movement to a post market, energy abundant world that is
desirable to most people or most decision makers.

That begs the third big question which is, I think, the fundamental one of
this Foundation:  Can people find a path away from competitive,
property-based systems to something that is productive and desirable?
Again, the jury is out.  Most of us, I think it is fair to say, hope so.
Some (perhaps most obviously Stan and myself) have grave doubts.  If we
cannot, I think my dystopian future is highly likely.

This third question circles back into the first in an Oroborus style.

What seems clear is that nearly all major world philosophies are predicting
varying levels of crisis for the next 20-50 years.  So far, those crises are
not hitting home to most people.  Change is not in the air except amongst
futurists...and change is always in the air for them.

Great questions...lots of attempts at answers.  None is so far compelling to
me.

Ryan
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