[p2p-research] Cities 2.0

[Ryan]

The rapid rise of cities...

Sent to you by Ryan via Google Reader: Cities 2.0 via Next Big Future
by noreply at blogger.com (bw) on 10/3/09
The world has an opportunity to develop new more productive and
efficient cities that are built entirely new because of the billions
moving to cities. The current move from rural to urban is increasing
per capita GDP by four to eight times in places like China. The
productivity gains could be even greater if a new kind of city could be
produced with double or triple the productivity of current cities.

China is considering accelerating urbanization from the current pace
of20-35 million people per year.

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social
Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects:
The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision,
http://esa.un.org/unup

World Urban population 2000-2050


Year Urban population (in billions) Total population
2000 2.85 6.12
2005 3.16 6.51
2010 3.49 6.91
2015 3.84 7.30
2020 4.21 7.68
2025 4.58 8.01
2030 4.97 8.32
2035 5.34 8.59
2040 5.71 8.82
2045 6.06 9.03
2050 6.40 9.20



Urbanization is ultimately heading towards about 85-90%. If population
levels out at 9.5 billion then that would be about 8.5 billion in
cities in about 2080.

There is an opportunity for countries like China to reinvent cities
that are more productive and efficient. Design and prototyping of
cities could be done from now to 2020. A radically different from
scratch city could be developed and built out starting in 2020-2030.

Doming cities could be re-examined as well as factory production of
cities with more compact footprints and arcology features. Multi-level
structures with 20-30 foot high levels could use less area while still
providing a feeling of openness.



A domed city would most benefit from being a planned city like Masdar
city in Abu Dhabi.

City scale climate engineering could save money and more efficiently
reduce energy costs.

Air supported sheets for Domes could get to far larger size

For towers, the mile high building is still proceeding.

The smaller more conservative domes in the Houston video would have
either just one for the city center or several covering several areas
of the metro area.

The cost benefits for any dome city would be more readily realized as
part of a build from scratch plan like Masdar.

Retrofit versions would be after the technology and benefits were
proved out. Although certain cities that are vulnerable to hurricanes
like along Texas coast and New Orleans could have justification for
Dome retrofits instead of other public works projects that would have
costs into the tens of billions. Bridges, buildings, roads etc...

An existing large domed greenhouse has several connected dome
structures so you can always expand out as needed.

Bolonkin (who has optimistic economic projections) has a paper on
doming a city and handling water and climate.

Reimaginging Movement

Masdar is a planned city that would have no fossil fuel cars.

US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) costs of freight
transporation by mode

Air 82 cents per ton mile
Truck 26 cents per ton mile
Rail 2.9 cents per ton mile
Barge 0.72 cents per ton mile (2001)
Pipeline 1.49 cents per ton mile (2001)

Therefore the energy efficiency gains are possible with a megascale
engineering revamp. Magnetic pipelines for cargo movement and
deliveries could reduce costs by twelve times over trucks inside cities.

China has funded magnetic pipelines for moving cargo. The magnetic
movement of cargo would be like plumbing for waste and water, but would
be pipes for efficiently moving goods within and between cities.

Another company, Launchpoint Technologies, is developing a freight rail
electrication system. Rail motor is at the link on magnetic pipelines.

Revamping transportation and cargo movement and people movement would
be part of a planned conversion of cities. It is thinking far bigger
than the areas of cities that are walking only outdoor malls.

Note the low cost per ton mile of barges. This is why as China dams its
major rivers with the equivalent of a three Gorges every two years from
now to 2030, they are deepening a lot of rivers to allow 10,000 ton
barges to go to the interior. The China example of hundreds of
gigawatts of hydroelectric power while also enabing a nationwide barge
infrastructure shows that

1. A major plan where engineers run a country.
2. That thinking big can deliver more energy, efficiency and high
productivity for a country.
3. An engineering plan that enables the GDP of entire regions and
cities to double or more




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