[p2p-research] Charlie Stross The Myth of the Starship

[Ryan]

  Sent to you by Ryan via Google Reader: Charlie Stross The Myth of the
Starship via Ethical Technology on 11/28/09

NB: As starships do not in fact exist, no starships were harmed in the
production of this essay. Also, this is just words. If they upset you,
go lie down in a dark room for half an hour then drink a glass of
water; you’ll feel better.

Actually, I tell a lie. There are five starships that we know of;
Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11, Voyager 1, Voyager 2, and New Horizons. But
they’re a far cry from the gleaming interstellar transports of science
fiction. New Horizons is the most recent of them. Launched in late
2006, it is the fastest human-launched vehicle so far. It raced past
Lunar orbit within nine hours of take-off: nevertheless, it will take
around 10 years to reach Pluto (its proximate target — for a three-hour
flyby). It weighs around 478 Kg, and is currently travelling outwards
from the sun at around 17km/sec — about fifty times as fast as a rifle
bullet.

We are 4.37 light years, or 140 million light-seconds, from Alpha
Centauri, give or take. One light second is 300,000 km; it takes New
Horizons about five hours to travel one light second. So: in very
roughly 30 million days, or on the order of 300,000 years (if it was
going in the right direction, which it isn’t), New Horizons could reach
Alpha Centauri.

And that’s the best we’ve done to date, admittedly without really
trying ...

This is not an essay about whether we could do better if we tried. I’ve
written about the problem of space colonization before. Rather, what
intrigues me is the possibility that the entire conceptual framework of
the starship is a dangerously misleading dead-end, and that what we
need is a new framework for thinking about interstellar travel.

The very word “starship” is a concatenation of two other words — star,
and ship. The first is pretty harmless; it merely defines the scale
factor we’re talking about, as opposed to interplanetary ship, or moon
ship, or Atlantic-crossing steam ship. But the second word comes with a
whole freightload of unwanted baggage, and I’m of a mind that serious
futurists or SF writers might want to think about ditching it
completely and looking for something new.

The astute reader will have spotted the link to the Apollo Program
above. We have actually built and flown Moon ships ... but we didn’t
call them ships, and they didn’t much look like one of these. There are
several reasons why not. First and foremost are the scale factors
involved, scale factors in both distance and (because you need to cross
that distance) time, hence velocity (the change of distance over time).
Kinetic energy is the killer; the kinetic energy of a moving body is
proportional to the square of its velocity. Want to go faster? You need
to throw bucketloads more energy at your vehicle, or make it much
lighter. The Apollo spacecraft (or New Horizons) travel roughly three
orders of magnitude faster than a regular sea-going ship, and they also
had to haul along the reaction mass to throw out the back to get them
up to speed (for they’re all powered by rockets, relying on Newton’s
Third Law to make things balance out).

But there’s a more subtle difference. We have a long tradition of
nautical baggage. Seafaring ships of the great age of exploration were
largely wooden, and — with the aid of their human crew —
self-repairing; subject to the availability of raw materials, there
wasn’t much aboard a 16th or 17th century sailing ship that couldn’t be
made on board. Aside from carpentry, the inhabitants of even a
relatively small port could make the necessities to keep a ship at sea
on a voyage of years — a smithy, a pottery, a glass-blower, weavers of
sailcloth and makers of hardtack. Shipbuilding was by no means easy (it
was an economic activity born on the backs of the large numbers of
peasant farmers and fisherfolk it took to provide the surplus to feed
the workers in the shipyards) but it wasn’t anything like the Apollo
project, which sucked up the labour of a third of a million skilled
engineers and technicians for a decade. The word ship therefore comes
freighted with connotations of autonomy and sustainability that are
inappropriate to space travel as we know it today. And one of the most
perfidious, misleading, damning, unconscious associations of the word
“ship” is the word “destination”.

As I’ve said before, the trouble with going into space is that there’s
no “there” there when you get to the other end of your voyage. All you
get is rocks, sunlight, and if you’re lucky some slush (water optional:
could equally well be methane or cyanide) to season your gravity wells.
So if you want to do anything at the other end — anything beyond
looking around real good — you need to bring the minimal seeds of the
infrastructure with which to build and maintain your biosphere (if
you’re travelling with an entourage of meat puppets) or your
mechanosphere (if you’re going the Eric Drexler/Hans
Moravec/downloading-or-AI route).

Which is why I was asking questions like this and this and this about a
month ago. I was feeling my way towards this critical question: which
is, “how simple can you make a minimal self-maintaining interstellar
transport system”?

To a first approximation, the best answer I can come up with is “not
very”. We can probably make it mechanically simple, rugged, and
lightweight if we can do mature machine-phase diamond-substrate
nanotechnology, and if we can figure out how to do one of mind
uploading or artificial general intelligence.

Note that I say mechanically simple — there’s a monumental raft of
complexity wrapped up in the idea of using a Starwisp for establishing
interstellar transportation, but it’s informational complexity rather
than straightforward mechanical complexity. We may use such a system to
sidestep the need for learning how to build self-sustaining biospheres
and interstellar playpens for bored hominids, and how to equip a group
of said hominids with the wherewithal to keep such a mobile playpen
from degrading catastrophically, but we face the corresponding
monumental challenge of solving the hard-AI problem and developing
molecular manufacturing far beyond the flexibility and scope of today’s
nanotechnology applications.

Such an interstellar capability isn’t going to look much like a “ship”.
It’s going to look more like a DVD balanced on a microwave beam, or a
can of beans hanging below a light sail energized by lasers powered by
huge orbiting solar power stations. There won’t be any biological
agencies aboard: just AGIs or something equivalent ported out of a
fleshbody’s cranium. No hands, only nanotech assemblers. And after a
voyage of decades or centuries it’s going to have to stop — somehow
braking at the other end — then spend more decades farming rocks, slush
and sunlight to build ever-bigger physical structures until it can
build the equipment with which to phone home.

If anything, it’s going to resemble a seed pod for a different kind of
life, and on arrival it’s going to hatch and grow into a tree, or a
forest, or a manufacturing-industrial complex. Finally, long after
arrival, it might have sufficient resources to divert from homeostasis
and growth to construct a biosphere, open communications with home, and
prepare to download digitized colonists — if the whole uploading
concept doesn’t prove to be chimerical, and if there’s something to be
done with the serialized primate core-dumps at the other end.

Note that I’m fairly optimistic about mature diamond-phase
nanotechnology (or some cognate thereof). The economic benefits of
getting it are huge, and there are no obvious lacunae on the technology
road map — unlike, say, fusion or manned interplanetary space travel.
I’m less optimistic about mind uploading, because in neuroscience we
are just about at the stage of beginning to figure out how ignorant we
are. And I’m pessimistic about AGI, because I don’t think we stand a
hope in hell of working out how to design an artificial general
intelligence until we know, at least in outline, what human general
intelligence is. (And we don’t.) But I suspect some combination of
these technologies will show up sooner or later — barring
resource-depletion crashes and/or habitable-biosphere-envelope
departures on a planetary scale — and once you’ve got two out of the
three, a starwisp-driven expansion starts to look feasible (if
energetically expensive).

The alternative approach uses generation ships. That’s what I was
talking about earlier. Which doesn’t sound much easier, if any, when
you contemplate how much we don’t know about environmental engineering
and biology. It also begs some huge sociological — human — questions,
and is unlikely to be planned as such. I expect it’d only happen in the
wake of our development of stable, safe space habitats — itself a huge
obstacle (Just look at the history of our first modular space station
if you want to get an idea of the problems surrounding life in space) —
and if the energy costs required to launch a starwisp are high (56Gw
for about a month to punch a 1Kg payload up to 10% of lightspeed; a
microwave lens 560Km in diameter to focus the beam), those of a
generation ship are going to be astronomically higher.

... Which leads me to believe that we’d be more realistic if we just
ditched the word “ship” entirely from discussions of interstellar
travel.

What we need to contemplate are the requirements for of an interstellar
transportation system.

Such a system needs to provide not only a mechanism for sending a
self-replicating technosphere across interstellar distances; it needs
to be able to produce a habitable space at the destination, and provide
a return option (for data, if nothing else).

Waving a magic wand of the variety I discounted in my earlier space
colonization essay, even if we postulate that mind uploading is both
possible and the way forward, interstellar travel still won’t be cheap.
Direct communication via modulated laser looks feasible at extrasolar
distances, on a reasonable power budget, given adequate pointing
accuracy — but the study linked to above has a bit rate of only 0.5
kb/s. Given their 15w peak power output, they’re talking about 0.03
joules/bit across 1000AU distance; or 1.9 joules/bit/light-year.

Even Hans Moravec’s estimate of the computational complexity of the
human brain (cited here only as a starting point for discussion of mind
uploading: I think he’s erring on the optimistic side by between three
and six orders of magnitude) suggests you’d need many years to transmit
a compressed uploaded mind at that bit rate! But we know we can
transmit data much faster using lasers over optical fibre. If we can
push the bit rate towards 1Tb/sec, transmitting a map of a brain with
10 to the 11th power neurons and glial cells, each with on average 10
to the 4th power interactions with neighbouring cells, and, say, a
spare 30 bits/connection (to summarize its properties), for a total of
10 to the 18th power bits of data per upload, we can squirt that map at
the stars in about ten days. We’ll need a powerful laser unless we want
the error rate to climb. Using the figure of 1.9 joules/bit/light-year,
to send an uploaded mind to alpha centauri is going to cost on the
order of 10 to the 19th joules over ten days: an unfeasibly large
amount of energy. (Hint: we’re talking the equivalent of a
Hiroshima-sized nuke every second, for a million seconds).

However, that figure corresponds to the sort of bit rate we can
envisage achieving more or less now. Improve the data-to-power ratio
by, say, a millionfold and things begin to look feasible (if not
exactly cheap). In particular, it’s a lot cheaper than travelling in
person (and anyway, we’ve got the honking great big solar power
station/maser grid we built to launch the starwisp in the first place;
might as well put it to use). Finally, if we can do the upload thing
well enough to provide the brains to run our starwisp in the first
place, we can probably make do without building a biosphere at the
other end. In other words: frail fleshbodies need not apply.

(There’s an alternative to shipping around uploads via laser that
merits investigation: if we can do uploading, and if we can make memory
diamond — which would seem to be a reasonable expectation of a mature
machine-phase nanotechnology — then the 80g payload of the reference
starwisp ought to be sufficient to carry about 2 x 10 to the 24th bits,
which corresponds to 20,000 stored uploads per “passenger ship”. This
might well be energetically cheaper than using a laser to transmit
uploads, giving us an unexpected long-haul corollary to Tanenbaum’s
law.)

So, to summarize: yes, I think human interstellar exploration (and yes,
maybe even colonization) might be possible, after a fashion. But to get
there, we’re going to have to master at least two entire technological
fields that don’t yet exist, even before we start trying to blast
compact disc sized machines up to relativistic velocities. And that’s
without considering the difficulty of how to cram an industrial
infrastructure capable of building more of itself, of a machine capable
of surviving in deep space — the equivalent of those 300,000 NASA
technicians and engineers — into the aforementioned CD-sized machine ...

If we succeed in doing it, it’s going to look nothing like the Starship
Enterprise. Or even New Horizons. The whole reference frame we
instinctively assume when we hear the word “ship” is just so wrong it’s
beyond wrong-ness: it’s on a par with Baron Munchausen’s lunar exploits
as seen in light of the Apollo Program. We need a new handle for
discussing and analyzing such a venture. And the sooner we consign the
“-ship” suffix to the dustbin of failed ideas, the better.



Charles Stross is an award-winning (Hugo, Nebula and Locus) science
fiction and horror writer based in Edinburgh, Scotland.



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