[p2p-research] Fwd: article by Jim Garrison and Emilia Queiroga

[Michel Bauwens]

BRAZIL AS CLIMATE LEADER – DO THE MATH

from Jim Garrison and Emilia Queiroga

As the world prepares for Copenhagen, there is a vacuum in climate
leadership, which Brazil has just filled. The combination of its commitment
to reduce Amazonian deforestation by 80% by 2020 and CO2 emissions by 36% -
39% by 2020 puts Brazil light years ahead of the rest of the world and
clearly the world leader in addressing the escalating crisis of global
warming.

Since deforestation accounts for roughly 60% of Brazil’s CO2 emissions, this
means that over-all, Brazil is committing to reduce its CO2 emissions by 84%
by 2020, if one assumes only a 36% reduction in CO2 emissions. Brazil has
just set the gold standard for the rest of the world to follow.

The central contradiction in the global warming crisis is that while the
urgency is getting increasingly acute, our governments are negotiating as if
we have another forty years to solve the problem. This timeframe lies at the
heart of the Copenhagen negotiations – reducing carbon emissions by 80% by
2050. But we do not have another 40 years to solve this crisis. We have only
a few at the most to take the action required and at some level virtually
everyone paying any attention knows that. We must be guided by science not
political expediency, and our scientists are saying that global warming is
about ready to spin out of control with devastating consequences to
civilization as we know it. We must therefore take decisive action
immediately. We must accomplish by 2020 what our governments are negotiating
for 2050. Only taking action within the 2020 timeframe will suffice to solve
the escalating crisis we are in. This is the stark reality we must face, and
this is the leadership that Brazil is now providing.

Why is an 80% reduction so important? Reducing carbon emissions by 80% by
2020 will allow us to stabilize the global temperature rise at just over 1C
and concentrations of CO2 at around 400 ppm, thus avoiding the worst effects
of global warming. This will allow for an essentially gracious “emergency
landing” so that we can then begin the process of actually reversing CO2
concentrations back down to 350 ppm, which Al Gore, Rajendra Pachauri, and a
growing consensus of scientists and policy analysts agree is the tipping
point above which devastating climate change is inevitable.

The world is currently at a 0.8 global temperature rise above pre industrial
levels and at CO2 concentrations of 385 ppm. Human activity is putting 90
million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every 24 hours and escalating tons
of methane are being released from the melting permafrost across Siberia and
from the Arctic Ocean. The polar ice caps are melting, the glaciers of
Greenland and on mountains all over the world are receding, droughts are
afflicting our lands, flooding is rampant, the number of extreme weather
events have quadrupled, and sea levels are beginning to rise.

We are literally in a race between tipping points, some happening in nature,
some in the realm of politics. How we generate an effective strategy to act
decisively and in time is the most urgent question confronting the world
today. Brazil has just created a powerful and inspiring political tipping
point. If we can get the rest of the world to simply join Brazil, the
climate crisis will be essentially solved.

Jim Garrison and Emilia Queiroga, Brazil 2020 Climate Leadership Campaign

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Uta Jehnich <uta at worldforum.org>
Date: Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 7:53 AM
Subject: article by Jim Garrison and Emilia Queiroga
To: jehnich uta <uta at worldforum.org>


Dear Friends,

The announcement last Friday by the Brazilian government to reduce its
carbon emissions by 36% - 39% by 2020, when combined with its announcement
in mid September that it will be reducing its deforestation by 80% by 2020,
puts Brazil light years ahead of any other nation on earth in the fight
against global warming.  If you do the math, this means an 84% reduction in
CO2 by 2020, even exceeding the goals of the 2020 Campaign.  Extraordinary.
We do not want to take any credit for this achievement but as you all know
we were deeply involved in the discussions and we can all take great comfort
that at least one nation, one of the largest and most dynamic, understands
the crisis and is willing to take leadership. So congratulations all around.

Emilia and I just completed an oped to that effect, attached, which
celebrates Brazil's leadership. Contrast this with the APAC announcement
yesterday that they will not commit to any specific goals and Obama's
statement today that no agreement will be reached in Copenhagen, there will
only be an agreement to agree.  As Greenpeace said, they intend to talk
about more talking. All while Rome burns.

This makes our Washington Climate Leadership Summit all the more important.
 I hope all of you intend to be there:  February 28 - March 3, 2010.  There
will definitely be a strong Brazilian contingent.

Warm Regards,

Jim





-- 
Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Research:
http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI

P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net

Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org

Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listcultures.org/pipermail/p2presearch_listcultures.org/attachments/20091116/68562acd/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Brazil as Climate Leader.doc
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 29696 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listcultures.org/pipermail/p2presearch_listcultures.org/attachments/20091116/68562acd/attachment.obj>