[p2p-research] A thirty year future of the transition to widescale P2P economies

Thu Nov 12 01:40:15 CET 2009

It seems to me that the average household is consuming more and more watts
of power even under high efficiencies to do the things they want to do.
That could reverse, but in voluntary terms, such a reversal seems a long
shot at best.  The best evidence of that is that spontaneous voluntary low
consumption isn't breaking out anywhere on a wide scale.  People travel
more, are cleaner, eat more calories, etc. on average.

I don't see where any of the major goals of abundance theorists or P2P
theorists became dominant without robotics as a key driver.  But I certainly
don't have a systematic proof of that.

It seems one of the major branching points of the future is the pace of
technology and economic acceptance of robots.  Given their increasing role
in manufacturing now, it is hard to envision a plateau for the deployment or
complexity of the systems.  If an idea like technology acceleration is true,
one would expect robotics to make increasing strides...unless there are
serious hurdles.  Regardless, the most interesting questions about the
future of abundance and sharing both seem highly integrated with the future
of robotics, at least as I currently see it.

Ryan

On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 5:03 PM, Paul D. Fernhout <
pdfernhout at kurtz-fernhout.com> wrote:

> I don't think you need robotics for "post-scarcity". We could have two hour
> workweeks even now if we eliminated most guarding work and reduced our
> expectations for material goods. A lot of this is state of mind, like Bob
> Black talked about.
>  http://www.whywork.org/rethinking/whywork/abolition.html
> "I haven't as yet even mentioned the possibility of cutting way down on the
> little work that remains by automating and cybernizing it. All the
> scientists and engineers and technicians freed from bothering with war
> research and planned obsolescence should have a good time devising means to
> eliminate fatigue and tedium and danger from activities like mining.
> Undoubtedly they'll find other projects to amuse themselves with. Perhaps
> they'll set up world-wide all-inclusive multi-media communications systems
> or found space colonies. Perhaps. I myself am no gadget freak. I wouldn't
> care to live in a push button paradise. I don't want robot slaves to do
> everything; I want to do things myself. There is, I think, a place for
> labor-saving technology, but a modest place. The historical and
> pre-historical record is not encouraging. When productive technology went
> from hunting-gathering to agriculture and on to industry, work increased
> while skills and self-determination diminished. The further evolution of
> industrialism has accentuated what Harry Braverman called the degradation of
> work. Intelligent observers have always been aware of this. John Stuart Mill
> wrote that all the labor-saving inventions ever devised haven't saved a
> moment's labor. The enthusiastic technophiles -- Saint-Simon, Comte, Lenin,
> B.F. Skinner -- have always been unabashed authoritarians also; which is to
> say, technocrats. We should be more than sceptical about the promises of the
> computer mystics. They work like dogs; chances are, if they have their way,
> so will the rest of us. But if they have any particularized contributions
> more readily subordinated to human purposes than the run of high tech, let's
> give them a hearing. "
>
> --Paul Fernhout
> http://www.pdfernhout.net/
>
>
> Ryan Lanham wrote:
>
>> How does one get to post-scarcity without robotics?
>>
>> Ryan
>>
>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 6:55 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com
>> >wrote:
>>
>>  I see a big contradiction between freefall and total robotization, with
>>> freefall, who's going to invest in total automation?
>>>
>>> so I would add 2 centuries to the robotic prediction, though I'm not at
>>> all
>>> certain that this will occur, I think it's a capitalist fantasy
>>> essentially,
>>> to remove all human contact with making and producing its own livelihood
>>> (I'm aware of course that leftleaning people have the same vision from
>>> another angle)
>>>
>>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 11:29 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com
>>> >wrote:
>>>
>>>  The intent here is brevity based on highlights...
>>>>
>>>> 2010
>>>>
>>>> The US begins to move rapidly toward social measures in medicine and
>>>> climate management that essentially break the back of any notion of a
>>>> small
>>>> government state.  In chaos, the Republican Party splits and reforms to
>>>> advance primarily an anti-immigration agenda.  The United States enters
>>>> a
>>>> long period of turning inward that will be copied in Europe and Asia.
>>>>  The
>>>> era of international flows and trades is now past its peak.
>>>>
>>>> 2014
>>>>
>>>> China declares that the new communist vision is growth of opportunity
>>>> through local joy and happiness, effectively mandating that the People
>>>> become consumers.  The US dollar, in long decline as a carrying
>>>> currency,
>>>> starts to become a secondary currency to the new Pan-Asia unit.
>>>>
>>>> 2017
>>>>
>>>> Mandarin becomes the first language of the web.  Nearly all children
>>>> globally begin to study Chinese.  India and China greatly enhance their
>>>> economic links.
>>>>
>>>> 2019
>>>>
>>>> Ubiquitous cloud computing and device linkage makes security,
>>>> communication, income, banking and money all converge.  The average
>>>> household uses more compute cycles per second than the most powerful
>>>> supercomputers in 2000.  Provision of electricty and cooling are the
>>>> major
>>>> economic components of any household budget having surpassed
>>>> transportation
>>>> in 2016.
>>>>
>>>> 2020
>>>>
>>>> As carbon reaches 425 ppm, the destructive impacts of climate change are
>>>> now starting to cause massive migrations and social turmoil.  Nations
>>>> set 10
>>>> year targets to eliminate fossil fuel from their economies.
>>>>
>>>> The United States, which as become an isolated power in its lost decade
>>>> of
>>>> economic growth, begins to envision radical restructuring of local
>>>> economies
>>>> to reduce carbon outputs and to protect aging populations who are
>>>> dominant
>>>> politically and economically, but no longer personally productive.  The
>>>> old
>>>> call for robotic support helpers along lines in use in Japan for 1/2 a
>>>> decade.
>>>>
>>>> 2022
>>>>
>>>> Most global universities exist only on line.  Older institutions have
>>>> been
>>>> turned into open communities and greenscapes with collective governance
>>>> strategies along lines of co-ops or townhall styled local governments.
>>>>  Obesity penalities eliminate demands for poor food choices in most of
>>>> the world.
>>>>
>>>> 2025
>>>>
>>>> Nearly all projects are capitalized against a social account that builds
>>>> facilities determined by complex AI-assisted long-range eco-survival
>>>> plans.
>>>> Most food and pharmaceutical production occurs within 10 miles of the
>>>> consumer's living space.  Earth's population peaks at 8 and 3/4 billion.
>>>>
>>>> Most fish are extinct that are not in enclosed sea farms.  40% of all
>>>> known species in 2009 are extinct or severaly endangered.  Many plants
>>>> have
>>>> succumbed to warming and treed landscapes outside of near arctic
>>>> locations
>>>> or rain forests are rare.
>>>>
>>>> 2027
>>>>
>>>> Anti-work parties become commonplace along European models started in
>>>> universities in the 20-teens.  The agendas generally call half-jokingly
>>>> for
>>>> "bread and circuses"   Most envision an handover to robots within 20
>>>> years
>>>> for all important managerial and process functions.
>>>>
>>>> 2030
>>>>
>>>> The computer processing power of integrated software clouds exceeds
>>>> human
>>>> brains by several orders of magnitude.  Nearly all software is designed
>>>> and
>>>> written by robots.  All medicine is done by robots.  The average age of
>>>> persons in the US and Europe climbs to 50.   Millions are now living to
>>>> 110.
>>>>
>>>> 2032
>>>>
>>>> Nearly all economic activity occurs within 10 miles of one's home.
>>>>  Robots
>>>> and cloud computing handle most entertainment, chores, management
>>>> processes
>>>> and research.  Humans overwhelmingly work on governing the commons in
>>>> local
>>>> pools of advisors to robotic planners.
>>>>
>>>> 2035
>>>>
>>>> Average age of a human is 44.  In Germany, the average age is 63.  In
>>>> the
>>>> US it is 55.  Population is now in freefall...down to roughly 7.5
>>>> billion.
>>>> Plans predict a global population of 2.4 billion humans in 2090 with
>>>> carbon
>>>> levels stabilized at 437 ppm.
>>>>
>>>> 2040
>>>>
>>>> Life is essentially no different in China than it is in Utah or Nigeria.
>>>> People live in clusters of robotically managed groups with little need
>>>> for
>>>> long-range travel or movement.  Exercise is a common "career."  Other
>>>> similar self-focused careers are designed by robots for people to feel
>>>> meaning and enjoyment.
>>>>
>>>> P2P exchanges of goods and services occur between robots who use excess
>>>> capacities to perform the production of planned needs.  Shipping is
>>>> entirely
>>>> automated.
>>>>
>>>> Humans plan for a world with dramatically lower population rates.  Few
>>>> choose to reproduce because the high social responsibilities entailed in
>>>> multiple offspring.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Ryan Lanham
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> _______________________________________________
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>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>> --
>>> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>> Research:
>>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>
>>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
>>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>>>
>>> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>
>>> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
>>> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
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-- 
Ryan Lanham
rlanham1963 at gmail.com
Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
P.O. Box 633
Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
Cayman Islands
(345) 916-1712
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