[p2p-research] A thirty year future of the transition to widescale P2P economies
Paul D. Fernhout
pdfernhout at kurtz-fernhout.com
Thu Nov 12 00:22:37 CET 2009
I think the OLPC project disproves that, with children easily taking up the
computers (and even their parents playing with them). As does the "Hole in
the Wall" project.
http://www.hole-in-the-wall.com/
"For experts, like Nicholas Negroponte of MIT, Hole-in-the-Wall is a ‘Shared
Blackboard’ which children in underprivileged communities can collectively
own and access, to express themselves, to learn, to explore together, and at
some stage to even brainstorm and come up with exciting ideas. For
villagers, it is more like a village Well, where children assemble to draw
knowledge and, in the process, engage in meaningful conversation and
immersive learning activities that broaden their horizons. And finally for
children, it is an extension of their playground where they can play
together, teach each other new things, and more importantly, just be
themselves."
But, yes, I can agree that communities will adopt different technologies and
use even the same ones in different ways. Ideally, communities should be
able to design their own infrastructures. My hopes for that, someday:
http://www.kurtz-fernhout.com/oscomak/goals.htm
"The Oscomak project is an attempt to create a core of communities more in
control of their technological destiny and its social implications. No
single design for a community or technology will please everyone, or even
many people. Nor would a single design be likely to survive. So this project
endeavors to gather information and to develop tools and processes that all
fit together conceptually like Tinkertoys or Legos. The result will be a
library of possibilities that individuals in a community can use to achieve
any degree of self-sufficiency and self-replication within any size
community, from one person to a billion people. Within every community
people will interact with these possibilities by using them and extending
them to design a community economy and physical layout that suits their
needs and ideas."
Again, whatever individuals may feel about robotics, if the USA or China or
Europe or Japan, which are already industrialized (or industrializing in
China's case), then it does not matter if the rest of the world adopts them.
The effects on global markets of cheap robotic goods of high quality will
affect everyone globally. A nation that fully automates will have such a
competitive advantage in a market system that market dynamics will demand
it. And already we see automation more and more. For example, solar panels
are no longer laboriously assembled by hand, but they are printed. Even with
zero cost human labor, for many tasks like assembly, you would not want it
because the quality will be lower.
The same may be more and more true even in services. Who wants to risk being
exposed to diseases by sharing a human nurse and other staff in a hospital?
It would be safer to have one robot (perhaps teleoperated sometimes with
haptic force feedback) per hospital room, just from an infection control
perspective. Humans may never go completely out of the loop in the next
couple of decades, but all these technologies allow one human to do more and
more.
Example:
"Haptics For Teleoperated Surgical Robotic Systems (New Frontiers in Robotics)"
http://www.amazon.com/Haptics-Teleoperated-Surgical-Frontiers-Robotics/dp/9812813152
"An important obstacle in Minimally Invasive Surgery (MIS) is the
significant degradation of haptic feedback (sensation of touch) to the
surgeon about surgical instrument s interaction with tissue. This monograph
is concerned with devices and methods required for incorporating haptic
feedback in master-slave robotic MIS systems. In terms of devices, novel
mechanisms are designed including a surgical end-effector (slave) with full
force sensing capabilities and a surgeon-robot interface (master) with full
force feedback capabilities. Using the master-slave system, various haptic
teleoperation control schemes are compared in terms of stability and
performance, and passivity-based time delay compensation for haptic
teleoperation over a long distance is investigated. The monograph also
compares haptic feedback with visual feedback and with substitution for
haptic feedback by other sensory cues in terms of surgical task performance."
By the way, telepresence to share skills across the network may be another
future aspect of P2P. :-) So, if everyone had a home robot that could be
teleoperated with force feedback, your friend on the other side of the
planet could use it to repair your sink, and you could reciprocate by using
the system to hem their pants legs to the right length. :-)
--Paul Fernhout
http://www.pdfernhout.net/
Michel Bauwens wrote:
> This relativism about technological determinism is even stronger if you live
> outside of the high tech countries of the West (and Korea/Japan) ... there
> are indeed a billion or more people living at the most basic levels, you can
> just drop robotic machinery on them ,these cultural adaptations take time,
> literacy, and a lot of social conditions and instititutional maturity, as
> well as a social force willing to invest in it, which could be finance
> capital, p2p movements, etc. A lot of technologies stay in the fridge for
> five decades or more, before even the advanced countries take them up,
>
> I feel the whole infatuation with robotics to be misguided, it's just part
> of a larger picture,
>
> Michel
>
> On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 8:43 AM, Kevin Flanagan <kev.flanagan at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> What about differing rates at which cultures adapt to technological change.
>> The market develops technological innovations, radio, television,
>> mobile phones, internet and as users we can take these on quite
>> naturally and for practical purposes. But we dont have to understand
>> these technologies and how they work. We navigate the world in accord
>> with out knowledge of it and we fit technology to our existing maps
>> and desires. We can have scientific advance but without a broad
>> cultural understanding of the useful implications those advances have
>> for society adoption will be slow.
>> This is why p2p advocacy is important. Im not a techie but I can see
>> the oppurtunities and possibilities technology offers. But just
>> because a technology exists dosent mean it will be adopted.
>> Creationism is a symptom of this cultural drag. Science has shown
>> evolution to be fact yet millions of people have real difficulty
>> reconciling this with their religous cultural inheritance.
>> Its easy to get excited by technological change especially when it
>> seems to occur so fast.
>> I grew up with internet access from my teens and I find it hard to
>> imagine the slow labour involved in getting access to knowledge in the
>> pre-internet days. Going to the library ordering a book waiting weeks.
>> Specially where I grew up in the west of Ireland. Today its something
>> I nearly take for granted.
>> It is still pre-internet days for billions of people isnt it.
>>
>> Kevin F
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 12:43 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>> If technology moves slowly enough to take a couple of hundred years for
>>> advanced robotics, it won't matter much, I agree. I'd be surprised if it
>>> took that long...not that I'll likely see it either way.
>>>
>>> Ryan
>>>
>>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 7:40 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com
>>>
>>> wrote:
>>>> total abundance in everything is a really tall order, and i'm very
>>>> sceptical,
>>>>
>>>> so my position has always been to more clearly understand
>>>> abundance/scarcity polarities and to replace the scarcity-engineering
>> focus
>>>> on the capitalist market, with abundance engineering, i.e.
>> systematically
>>>> enhance natural abundance.
>>>>
>>>> we can easily give people in the world food, shelter, and a rich
>>>> relational and cultural life without any robotics on top of what we have
>>>> now,
>>>>
>>>> if on top of that, robotics make sense, all the better,
>>>>
>>>> Michel
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 7:36 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>> How does one get to post-scarcity without robotics?
>>>>>
>>>>> Ryan
>>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 6:55 PM, Michel Bauwens <
>> michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> I see a big contradiction between freefall and total robotization,
>> with
>>>>>> freefall, who's going to invest in total automation?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> so I would add 2 centuries to the robotic prediction, though I'm not
>> at
>>>>>> all certain that this will occur, I think it's a capitalist fantasy
>>>>>> essentially, to remove all human contact with making and producing its
>> own
>>>>>> livelihood (I'm aware of course that leftleaning people have the same
>> vision
>>>>>> from another angle)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 11:29 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>> The intent here is brevity based on highlights...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2010
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The US begins to move rapidly toward social measures in medicine and
>>>>>>> climate management that essentially break the back of any notion of a
>> small
>>>>>>> government state. In chaos, the Republican Party splits and reforms
>> to
>>>>>>> advance primarily an anti-immigration agenda. The United States
>> enters a
>>>>>>> long period of turning inward that will be copied in Europe and
>> Asia. The
>>>>>>> era of international flows and trades is now past its peak.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2014
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> China declares that the new communist vision is growth of opportunity
>>>>>>> through local joy and happiness, effectively mandating that the
>> People
>>>>>>> become consumers. The US dollar, in long decline as a carrying
>> currency,
>>>>>>> starts to become a secondary currency to the new Pan-Asia unit.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2017
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Mandarin becomes the first language of the web. Nearly all children
>>>>>>> globally begin to study Chinese. India and China greatly enhance
>> their
>>>>>>> economic links.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2019
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ubiquitous cloud computing and device linkage makes security,
>>>>>>> communication, income, banking and money all converge. The average
>>>>>>> household uses more compute cycles per second than the most powerful
>>>>>>> supercomputers in 2000. Provision of electricty and cooling are the
>> major
>>>>>>> economic components of any household budget having surpassed
>> transportation
>>>>>>> in 2016.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2020
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> As carbon reaches 425 ppm, the destructive impacts of climate change
>>>>>>> are now starting to cause massive migrations and social turmoil.
>> Nations
>>>>>>> set 10 year targets to eliminate fossil fuel from their economies.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The United States, which as become an isolated power in its lost
>> decade
>>>>>>> of economic growth, begins to envision radical restructuring of local
>>>>>>> economies to reduce carbon outputs and to protect aging populations
>> who are
>>>>>>> dominant politically and economically, but no longer personally
>> productive.
>>>>>>> The old call for robotic support helpers along lines in use in Japan
>> for 1/2
>>>>>>> a decade.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2022
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Most global universities exist only on line. Older institutions have
>>>>>>> been turned into open communities and greenscapes with collective
>> governance
>>>>>>> strategies along lines of co-ops or townhall styled local
>> governments.
>>>>>>> Obesity penalities eliminate demands for poor food choices in most of
>>>>>>> the world.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2025
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Nearly all projects are capitalized against a social account that
>>>>>>> builds facilities determined by complex AI-assisted long-range
>> eco-survival
>>>>>>> plans. Most food and pharmaceutical production occurs within 10
>> miles of
>>>>>>> the consumer's living space. Earth's population peaks at 8 and 3/4
>> billion.
>>>>>>> Most fish are extinct that are not in enclosed sea farms. 40% of all
>>>>>>> known species in 2009 are extinct or severaly endangered. Many
>> plants have
>>>>>>> succumbed to warming and treed landscapes outside of near arctic
>> locations
>>>>>>> or rain forests are rare.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2027
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Anti-work parties become commonplace along European models started in
>>>>>>> universities in the 20-teens. The agendas generally call
>> half-jokingly for
>>>>>>> "bread and circuses" Most envision an handover to robots within 20
>> years
>>>>>>> for all important managerial and process functions.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2030
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The computer processing power of integrated software clouds exceeds
>>>>>>> human brains by several orders of magnitude. Nearly all software is
>>>>>>> designed and written by robots. All medicine is done by robots. The
>>>>>>> average age of persons in the US and Europe climbs to 50. Millions
>> are now
>>>>>>> living to 110.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2032
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Nearly all economic activity occurs within 10 miles of one's home.
>>>>>>> Robots and cloud computing handle most entertainment, chores,
>> management
>>>>>>> processes and research. Humans overwhelmingly work on governing the
>> commons
>>>>>>> in local pools of advisors to robotic planners.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2035
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Average age of a human is 44. In Germany, the average age is 63. In
>>>>>>> the US it is 55. Population is now in freefall...down to roughly 7.5
>>>>>>> billion. Plans predict a global population of 2.4 billion humans in
>> 2090
>>>>>>> with carbon levels stabilized at 437 ppm.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2040
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Life is essentially no different in China than it is in Utah or
>>>>>>> Nigeria. People live in clusters of robotically managed groups
>> with little
>>>>>>> need for long-range travel or movement. Exercise is a common
>> "career."
>>>>>>> Other similar self-focused careers are designed by robots for people
>> to feel
>>>>>>> meaning and enjoyment.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> P2P exchanges of goods and services occur between robots who use
>> excess
>>>>>>> capacities to perform the production of planned needs. Shipping is
>> entirely
>>>>>>> automated.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Humans plan for a world with dramatically lower population
>> rates. Few
>>>>>>> choose to reproduce because the high social responsibilities entailed
>> in
>>>>>>> multiple offspring.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Ryan Lanham
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>>>> p2presearch mailing list
>>>>>>> p2presearch at listcultures.org
>>>>>>>
>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>>>>> Research: http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think
>> thank:
>>>>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>>>>
>>>>>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net -
>>>>>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
>>>>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
>>>>>> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Ryan Lanham
>>>>> rlanham1963 at gmail.com
>>>>> Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
>>>>> P.O. Box 633
>>>>> Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
>>>>> Cayman Islands
>>>>> (345) 916-1712
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>> Research:
>>>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
>>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>>
>>>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net -
>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>>>> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
>>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>>
>>>> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
>>>> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Ryan Lanham
>>> rlanham1963 at gmail.com
>>> Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
>>> P.O. Box 633
>>> Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
>>> Cayman Islands
>>> (345) 916-1712
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> p2presearch mailing list
>>> p2presearch at listcultures.org
>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>
>>>
>> _______________________________________________
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>>
>
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