[p2p-research] A thirty year future of the transition to widescale P2P economies

Wed Nov 11 03:18:56 CET 2009

This relativism about technological determinism is even stronger if you live
outside of the high tech countries of the West (and Korea/Japan) ... there
are indeed a billion or more people living at the most basic levels, you can
just drop robotic machinery on them ,these cultural adaptations take time,
literacy, and a lot of social conditions and instititutional maturity, as
well as a social force willing to invest in it, which could be finance
capital, p2p movements, etc. A lot of technologies stay in the fridge for
five decades or more, before even the advanced countries take them up,

I feel the whole infatuation with robotics to be misguided, it's just part
of a larger picture,

Michel

On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 8:43 AM, Kevin Flanagan <kev.flanagan at gmail.com>wrote:

> What about differing rates at which cultures adapt to technological change.
> The market develops technological innovations, radio, television,
> mobile phones, internet and as users we can take these on quite
> naturally and for practical purposes. But we dont have to understand
> these technologies and how they work. We navigate the world in accord
> with out knowledge of it and we fit technology to our existing maps
> and desires. We can have scientific advance but without a broad
> cultural understanding of the useful implications those advances have
> for society adoption will be slow.
> This is why p2p advocacy is important. Im not a techie but I can see
> the oppurtunities and possibilities technology offers. But just
> because a technology exists dosent mean it will be adopted.
> Creationism is a symptom of this cultural drag. Science has shown
> evolution to be fact yet millions of people have real difficulty
> reconciling this with their religous cultural inheritance.
> Its easy to get excited by technological change especially when it
> seems to occur so fast.
> I grew up with internet access from my teens and I find it hard to
> imagine the slow labour involved in getting access to knowledge in the
> pre-internet days. Going to the library ordering a book waiting weeks.
> Specially where I grew up in the west of Ireland. Today its something
> I nearly take for granted.
> It is still pre-internet days for billions of people isnt it.
>
> Kevin F
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 12:43 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> > If technology moves slowly enough to take a couple of hundred years for
> > advanced robotics, it won't matter much, I agree.  I'd be surprised if it
> > took that long...not that I'll likely see it either way.
> >
> > Ryan
> >
> > On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 7:40 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com
> >
> > wrote:
> >>
> >> total abundance in everything is a really tall order, and i'm very
> >> sceptical,
> >>
> >> so my position has always been to more clearly understand
> >> abundance/scarcity polarities and to replace the scarcity-engineering
> focus
> >> on the capitalist market, with abundance engineering, i.e.
> systematically
> >> enhance natural abundance.
> >>
> >> we can easily give people in the world food, shelter, and a rich
> >> relational and cultural life without any robotics on top of what we have
> >> now,
> >>
> >> if on top of that, robotics make sense, all the better,
> >>
> >> Michel
> >>
> >> On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 7:36 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>
> >> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> How does one get to post-scarcity without robotics?
> >>>
> >>> Ryan
> >>>
> >>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 6:55 PM, Michel Bauwens <
> michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
> >>> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>> I see a big contradiction between freefall and total robotization,
> with
> >>>> freefall, who's going to invest in total automation?
> >>>>
> >>>> so I would add 2 centuries to the robotic prediction, though I'm not
> at
> >>>> all certain that this will occur, I think it's a capitalist fantasy
> >>>> essentially, to remove all human contact with making and producing its
> own
> >>>> livelihood (I'm aware of course that leftleaning people have the same
> vision
> >>>> from another angle)
> >>>>
> >>>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 11:29 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>
> >>>> wrote:
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The intent here is brevity based on highlights...
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2010
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The US begins to move rapidly toward social measures in medicine and
> >>>>> climate management that essentially break the back of any notion of a
> small
> >>>>> government state.  In chaos, the Republican Party splits and reforms
> to
> >>>>> advance primarily an anti-immigration agenda.  The United States
> enters a
> >>>>> long period of turning inward that will be copied in Europe and
> Asia.  The
> >>>>> era of international flows and trades is now past its peak.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2014
> >>>>>
> >>>>> China declares that the new communist vision is growth of opportunity
> >>>>> through local joy and happiness, effectively mandating that the
> People
> >>>>> become consumers.  The US dollar, in long decline as a carrying
> currency,
> >>>>> starts to become a secondary currency to the new Pan-Asia unit.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2017
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Mandarin becomes the first language of the web.  Nearly all children
> >>>>> globally begin to study Chinese.  India and China greatly enhance
> their
> >>>>> economic links.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2019
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Ubiquitous cloud computing and device linkage makes security,
> >>>>> communication, income, banking and money all converge.  The average
> >>>>> household uses more compute cycles per second than the most powerful
> >>>>> supercomputers in 2000.  Provision of electricty and cooling are the
> major
> >>>>> economic components of any household budget having surpassed
> transportation
> >>>>> in 2016.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2020
> >>>>>
> >>>>> As carbon reaches 425 ppm, the destructive impacts of climate change
> >>>>> are now starting to cause massive migrations and social turmoil.
> Nations
> >>>>> set 10 year targets to eliminate fossil fuel from their economies.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The United States, which as become an isolated power in its lost
> decade
> >>>>> of economic growth, begins to envision radical restructuring of local
> >>>>> economies to reduce carbon outputs and to protect aging populations
> who are
> >>>>> dominant politically and economically, but no longer personally
> productive.
> >>>>> The old call for robotic support helpers along lines in use in Japan
> for 1/2
> >>>>> a decade.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2022
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Most global universities exist only on line.  Older institutions have
> >>>>> been turned into open communities and greenscapes with collective
> governance
> >>>>> strategies along lines of co-ops or townhall styled local
> governments.
> >>>>> Obesity penalities eliminate demands for poor food choices in most of
> >>>>> the world.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2025
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Nearly all projects are capitalized against a social account that
> >>>>> builds facilities determined by complex AI-assisted long-range
> eco-survival
> >>>>> plans.  Most food and pharmaceutical production occurs within 10
> miles of
> >>>>> the consumer's living space.  Earth's population peaks at 8 and 3/4
> billion.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Most fish are extinct that are not in enclosed sea farms.  40% of all
> >>>>> known species in 2009 are extinct or severaly endangered.  Many
> plants have
> >>>>> succumbed to warming and treed landscapes outside of near arctic
> locations
> >>>>> or rain forests are rare.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2027
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Anti-work parties become commonplace along European models started in
> >>>>> universities in the 20-teens.  The agendas generally call
> half-jokingly for
> >>>>> "bread and circuses"   Most envision an handover to robots within 20
> years
> >>>>> for all important managerial and process functions.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2030
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The computer processing power of integrated software clouds exceeds
> >>>>> human brains by several orders of magnitude.  Nearly all software is
> >>>>> designed and written by robots.  All medicine is done by robots.  The
> >>>>> average age of persons in the US and Europe climbs to 50.   Millions
> are now
> >>>>> living to 110.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2032
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Nearly all economic activity occurs within 10 miles of one's home.
> >>>>> Robots and cloud computing handle most entertainment, chores,
> management
> >>>>> processes and research.  Humans overwhelmingly work on governing the
> commons
> >>>>> in local pools of advisors to robotic planners.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2035
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Average age of a human is 44.  In Germany, the average age is 63.  In
> >>>>> the US it is 55.  Population is now in freefall...down to roughly 7.5
> >>>>> billion.  Plans predict a global population of 2.4 billion humans in
> 2090
> >>>>> with carbon levels stabilized at 437 ppm.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 2040
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Life is essentially no different in China than it is in Utah or
> >>>>> Nigeria.  People live in clusters of robotically managed groups
> with little
> >>>>> need for long-range travel or movement.  Exercise is a common
> "career."
> >>>>> Other similar self-focused careers are designed by robots for people
> to feel
> >>>>> meaning and enjoyment.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> P2P exchanges of goods and services occur between robots who use
> excess
> >>>>> capacities to perform the production of planned needs.  Shipping is
> entirely
> >>>>> automated.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Humans plan for a world with dramatically lower population
> rates.  Few
> >>>>> choose to reproduce because the high social responsibilities entailed
> in
> >>>>> multiple offspring.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> --
> >>>>> Ryan Lanham
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> _______________________________________________
> >>>>> p2presearch mailing list
> >>>>> p2presearch at listcultures.org
> >>>>>
> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
> >>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> --
> >>>> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
> >>>> Research: http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think
> thank:
> >>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
> >>>>
> >>>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
> >>>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
> >>>>
> >>>> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
> >>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
> >>>>
> >>>> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
> >>>> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> --
> >>> Ryan Lanham
> >>> rlanham1963 at gmail.com
> >>> Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
> >>> P.O. Box 633
> >>> Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
> >>> Cayman Islands
> >>> (345) 916-1712
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> --
> >> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
> Research:
> >> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
> >> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
> >>
> >> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
> >>
> >> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
> >> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
> >>
> >> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
> >> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Ryan Lanham
> > rlanham1963 at gmail.com
> > Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
> > P.O. Box 633
> > Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
> > Cayman Islands
> > (345) 916-1712
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > p2presearch mailing list
> > p2presearch at listcultures.org
> > http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
> >
> >
>
> _______________________________________________
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>

-- 
Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Research:
http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI

P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net

Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org

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