[p2p-research] A thirty year future of the transition to widescale P2P economies

Wed Nov 11 02:43:08 CET 2009

What about differing rates at which cultures adapt to technological change.
The market develops technological innovations, radio, television,
mobile phones, internet and as users we can take these on quite
naturally and for practical purposes. But we dont have to understand
these technologies and how they work. We navigate the world in accord
with out knowledge of it and we fit technology to our existing maps
and desires. We can have scientific advance but without a broad
cultural understanding of the useful implications those advances have
for society adoption will be slow.
This is why p2p advocacy is important. Im not a techie but I can see
the oppurtunities and possibilities technology offers. But just
because a technology exists dosent mean it will be adopted.
Creationism is a symptom of this cultural drag. Science has shown
evolution to be fact yet millions of people have real difficulty
reconciling this with their religous cultural inheritance.
Its easy to get excited by technological change especially when it
seems to occur so fast.
I grew up with internet access from my teens and I find it hard to
imagine the slow labour involved in getting access to knowledge in the
pre-internet days. Going to the library ordering a book waiting weeks.
Specially where I grew up in the west of Ireland. Today its something
I nearly take for granted.
It is still pre-internet days for billions of people isnt it.

Kevin F

On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 12:43 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com> wrote:
> If technology moves slowly enough to take a couple of hundred years for
> advanced robotics, it won't matter much, I agree.  I'd be surprised if it
> took that long...not that I'll likely see it either way.
>
> Ryan
>
> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 7:40 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>>
>> total abundance in everything is a really tall order, and i'm very
>> sceptical,
>>
>> so my position has always been to more clearly understand
>> abundance/scarcity polarities and to replace the scarcity-engineering focus
>> on the capitalist market, with abundance engineering, i.e. systematically
>> enhance natural abundance.
>>
>> we can easily give people in the world food, shelter, and a rich
>> relational and cultural life without any robotics on top of what we have
>> now,
>>
>> if on top of that, robotics make sense, all the better,
>>
>> Michel
>>
>> On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 7:36 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>>
>>> How does one get to post-scarcity without robotics?
>>>
>>> Ryan
>>>
>>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 6:55 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> I see a big contradiction between freefall and total robotization, with
>>>> freefall, who's going to invest in total automation?
>>>>
>>>> so I would add 2 centuries to the robotic prediction, though I'm not at
>>>> all certain that this will occur, I think it's a capitalist fantasy
>>>> essentially, to remove all human contact with making and producing its own
>>>> livelihood (I'm aware of course that leftleaning people have the same vision
>>>> from another angle)
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 11:29 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> The intent here is brevity based on highlights...
>>>>>
>>>>> 2010
>>>>>
>>>>> The US begins to move rapidly toward social measures in medicine and
>>>>> climate management that essentially break the back of any notion of a small
>>>>> government state.  In chaos, the Republican Party splits and reforms to
>>>>> advance primarily an anti-immigration agenda.  The United States enters a
>>>>> long period of turning inward that will be copied in Europe and Asia.  The
>>>>> era of international flows and trades is now past its peak.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2014
>>>>>
>>>>> China declares that the new communist vision is growth of opportunity
>>>>> through local joy and happiness, effectively mandating that the People
>>>>> become consumers.  The US dollar, in long decline as a carrying currency,
>>>>> starts to become a secondary currency to the new Pan-Asia unit.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2017
>>>>>
>>>>> Mandarin becomes the first language of the web.  Nearly all children
>>>>> globally begin to study Chinese.  India and China greatly enhance their
>>>>> economic links.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2019
>>>>>
>>>>> Ubiquitous cloud computing and device linkage makes security,
>>>>> communication, income, banking and money all converge.  The average
>>>>> household uses more compute cycles per second than the most powerful
>>>>> supercomputers in 2000.  Provision of electricty and cooling are the major
>>>>> economic components of any household budget having surpassed transportation
>>>>> in 2016.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2020
>>>>>
>>>>> As carbon reaches 425 ppm, the destructive impacts of climate change
>>>>> are now starting to cause massive migrations and social turmoil.  Nations
>>>>> set 10 year targets to eliminate fossil fuel from their economies.
>>>>>
>>>>> The United States, which as become an isolated power in its lost decade
>>>>> of economic growth, begins to envision radical restructuring of local
>>>>> economies to reduce carbon outputs and to protect aging populations who are
>>>>> dominant politically and economically, but no longer personally productive.
>>>>> The old call for robotic support helpers along lines in use in Japan for 1/2
>>>>> a decade.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2022
>>>>>
>>>>> Most global universities exist only on line.  Older institutions have
>>>>> been turned into open communities and greenscapes with collective governance
>>>>> strategies along lines of co-ops or townhall styled local governments.
>>>>> Obesity penalities eliminate demands for poor food choices in most of
>>>>> the world.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2025
>>>>>
>>>>> Nearly all projects are capitalized against a social account that
>>>>> builds facilities determined by complex AI-assisted long-range eco-survival
>>>>> plans.  Most food and pharmaceutical production occurs within 10 miles of
>>>>> the consumer's living space.  Earth's population peaks at 8 and 3/4 billion.
>>>>>
>>>>> Most fish are extinct that are not in enclosed sea farms.  40% of all
>>>>> known species in 2009 are extinct or severaly endangered.  Many plants have
>>>>> succumbed to warming and treed landscapes outside of near arctic locations
>>>>> or rain forests are rare.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2027
>>>>>
>>>>> Anti-work parties become commonplace along European models started in
>>>>> universities in the 20-teens.  The agendas generally call half-jokingly for
>>>>> "bread and circuses"   Most envision an handover to robots within 20 years
>>>>> for all important managerial and process functions.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2030
>>>>>
>>>>> The computer processing power of integrated software clouds exceeds
>>>>> human brains by several orders of magnitude.  Nearly all software is
>>>>> designed and written by robots.  All medicine is done by robots.  The
>>>>> average age of persons in the US and Europe climbs to 50.   Millions are now
>>>>> living to 110.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2032
>>>>>
>>>>> Nearly all economic activity occurs within 10 miles of one's home.
>>>>> Robots and cloud computing handle most entertainment, chores, management
>>>>> processes and research.  Humans overwhelmingly work on governing the commons
>>>>> in local pools of advisors to robotic planners.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2035
>>>>>
>>>>> Average age of a human is 44.  In Germany, the average age is 63.  In
>>>>> the US it is 55.  Population is now in freefall...down to roughly 7.5
>>>>> billion.  Plans predict a global population of 2.4 billion humans in 2090
>>>>> with carbon levels stabilized at 437 ppm.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2040
>>>>>
>>>>> Life is essentially no different in China than it is in Utah or
>>>>> Nigeria.  People live in clusters of robotically managed groups with little
>>>>> need for long-range travel or movement.  Exercise is a common "career."
>>>>> Other similar self-focused careers are designed by robots for people to feel
>>>>> meaning and enjoyment.
>>>>>
>>>>> P2P exchanges of goods and services occur between robots who use excess
>>>>> capacities to perform the production of planned needs.  Shipping is entirely
>>>>> automated.
>>>>>
>>>>> Humans plan for a world with dramatically lower population rates.  Few
>>>>> choose to reproduce because the high social responsibilities entailed in
>>>>> multiple offspring.
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Ryan Lanham
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> p2presearch mailing list
>>>>> p2presearch at listcultures.org
>>>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>>> Research: http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
>>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>>
>>>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
>>>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>>>>
>>>> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
>>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>>
>>>> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
>>>> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Ryan Lanham
>>> rlanham1963 at gmail.com
>>> Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
>>> P.O. Box 633
>>> Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
>>> Cayman Islands
>>> (345) 916-1712
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Research:
>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>
>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>>
>> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>
>> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
>> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
> --
> Ryan Lanham
> rlanham1963 at gmail.com
> Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
> P.O. Box 633
> Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
> Cayman Islands
> (345) 916-1712
>
>
>
>
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>
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