[p2p-research] A thirty year future of the transition to widescale P2P economies

Wed Nov 11 01:43:03 CET 2009

If technology moves slowly enough to take a couple of hundred years for
advanced robotics, it won't matter much, I agree.  I'd be surprised if it
took that long...not that I'll likely see it either way.

Ryan

On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 7:40 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

> total abundance in everything is a really tall order, and i'm very
> sceptical,
>
> so my position has always been to more clearly understand
> abundance/scarcity polarities and to replace the scarcity-engineering focus
> on the capitalist market, with abundance engineering, i.e. systematically
> enhance natural abundance.
>
> we can easily give people in the world food, shelter, and a rich relational
> and cultural life without any robotics on top of what we have now,
>
> if on top of that, robotics make sense, all the better,
>
> Michel
>
> On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 7:36 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> How does one get to post-scarcity without robotics?
>>
>> Ryan
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 6:55 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> I see a big contradiction between freefall and total robotization, with
>>> freefall, who's going to invest in total automation?
>>>
>>> so I would add 2 centuries to the robotic prediction, though I'm not at
>>> all certain that this will occur, I think it's a capitalist fantasy
>>> essentially, to remove all human contact with making and producing its own
>>> livelihood (I'm aware of course that leftleaning people have the same vision
>>> from another angle)
>>>
>>>   On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 11:29 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>>>   The intent here is brevity based on highlights...
>>>>
>>>> 2010
>>>>
>>>> The US begins to move rapidly toward social measures in medicine and
>>>> climate management that essentially break the back of any notion of a small
>>>> government state.  In chaos, the Republican Party splits and reforms to
>>>> advance primarily an anti-immigration agenda.  The United States enters a
>>>> long period of turning inward that will be copied in Europe and Asia.  The
>>>> era of international flows and trades is now past its peak.
>>>>
>>>> 2014
>>>>
>>>> China declares that the new communist vision is growth of opportunity
>>>> through local joy and happiness, effectively mandating that the People
>>>> become consumers.  The US dollar, in long decline as a carrying currency,
>>>> starts to become a secondary currency to the new Pan-Asia unit.
>>>>
>>>> 2017
>>>>
>>>> Mandarin becomes the first language of the web.  Nearly all children
>>>> globally begin to study Chinese.  India and China greatly enhance their
>>>> economic links.
>>>>
>>>> 2019
>>>>
>>>> Ubiquitous cloud computing and device linkage makes security,
>>>> communication, income, banking and money all converge.  The average
>>>> household uses more compute cycles per second than the most powerful
>>>> supercomputers in 2000.  Provision of electricty and cooling are the major
>>>> economic components of any household budget having surpassed transportation
>>>> in 2016.
>>>>
>>>> 2020
>>>>
>>>> As carbon reaches 425 ppm, the destructive impacts of climate change are
>>>> now starting to cause massive migrations and social turmoil.  Nations set 10
>>>> year targets to eliminate fossil fuel from their economies.
>>>>
>>>> The United States, which as become an isolated power in its lost decade
>>>> of economic growth, begins to envision radical restructuring of local
>>>> economies to reduce carbon outputs and to protect aging populations who are
>>>> dominant politically and economically, but no longer personally productive.
>>>> The old call for robotic support helpers along lines in use in Japan for 1/2
>>>> a decade.
>>>>
>>>> 2022
>>>>
>>>> Most global universities exist only on line.  Older institutions have
>>>> been turned into open communities and greenscapes with collective governance
>>>> strategies along lines of co-ops or townhall styled local governments.
>>>>  Obesity penalities eliminate demands for poor food choices in most of
>>>> the world.
>>>>
>>>> 2025
>>>>
>>>> Nearly all projects are capitalized against a social account that builds
>>>> facilities determined by complex AI-assisted long-range eco-survival plans.
>>>> Most food and pharmaceutical production occurs within 10 miles of the
>>>> consumer's living space.  Earth's population peaks at 8 and 3/4 billion.
>>>>
>>>> Most fish are extinct that are not in enclosed sea farms.  40% of all
>>>> known species in 2009 are extinct or severaly endangered.  Many plants have
>>>> succumbed to warming and treed landscapes outside of near arctic locations
>>>> or rain forests are rare.
>>>>
>>>> 2027
>>>>
>>>> Anti-work parties become commonplace along European models started in
>>>> universities in the 20-teens.  The agendas generally call half-jokingly for
>>>> "bread and circuses"   Most envision an handover to robots within 20 years
>>>> for all important managerial and process functions.
>>>>
>>>> 2030
>>>>
>>>> The computer processing power of integrated software clouds exceeds
>>>> human brains by several orders of magnitude.  Nearly all software is
>>>> designed and written by robots.  All medicine is done by robots.  The
>>>> average age of persons in the US and Europe climbs to 50.   Millions are now
>>>> living to 110.
>>>>
>>>> 2032
>>>>
>>>> Nearly all economic activity occurs within 10 miles of one's home.
>>>> Robots and cloud computing handle most entertainment, chores, management
>>>> processes and research.  Humans overwhelmingly work on governing the commons
>>>> in local pools of advisors to robotic planners.
>>>>
>>>> 2035
>>>>
>>>> Average age of a human is 44.  In Germany, the average age is 63.  In
>>>> the US it is 55.  Population is now in freefall...down to roughly 7.5
>>>> billion.  Plans predict a global population of 2.4 billion humans in 2090
>>>> with carbon levels stabilized at 437 ppm.
>>>>
>>>> 2040
>>>>
>>>> Life is essentially no different in China than it is in Utah or
>>>> Nigeria.  People live in clusters of robotically managed groups with little
>>>> need for long-range travel or movement.  Exercise is a common "career."
>>>> Other similar self-focused careers are designed by robots for people to feel
>>>> meaning and enjoyment.
>>>>
>>>> P2P exchanges of goods and services occur between robots who use excess
>>>> capacities to perform the production of planned needs.  Shipping is entirely
>>>> automated.
>>>>
>>>> Humans plan for a world with dramatically lower population rates.  Few
>>>> choose to reproduce because the high social responsibilities entailed in
>>>> multiple offspring.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Ryan Lanham
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> _______________________________________________
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>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>> Research: http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>
>>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
>>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>>>
>>> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>
>>> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
>>> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Ryan Lanham
>> rlanham1963 at gmail.com
>> Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
>> P.O. Box 633
>> Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
>> Cayman Islands
>> (345) 916-1712
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Research:
> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>
> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>
> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>
> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>
>
>
>
>

-- 
Ryan Lanham
rlanham1963 at gmail.com
Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
P.O. Box 633
Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
Cayman Islands
(345) 916-1712
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