[p2p-research] A thirty year future of the transition to widescale P2P economies

[Paul D. Fernhout]

OK, a first scenario. How about a few others with different assumptions?
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futurology
"""
Future Studies takes as one of its important attributes (epistemological 
starting points) the on-going effort to analyze images of the future. This 
effort includes collecting quantitative and qualitative data about the 
possibility, probability, and desirability of change. The plurality of the 
term "futures" in futurology denotes the rich variety of images of the 
future (alternative futures), including the subset of preferable futures 
(normative futures), that can be studied.
   Practitioners of the discipline previously concentrated on extrapolating 
present technological, economic or social trends, or on attempting to 
predict future trends, but more recently they have started to examine social 
systems and uncertainties and to build scenarios, question the worldviews 
behind such scenarios via the causal layered analysis method (and others) 
create preferred visions of the future, and use backcasting to derive 
alternative implementation strategies. Apart from extrapolation and 
scenarios, many dozens of methods and techniques are used in futures 
research (see below).
"""

I tend to think your conclusion is likely though, like I suggested here:
"[p2p-research] Peak Population crisis (was Re: Japan's Demographic Crisis)" 
 
http://listcultures.org/pipermail/p2presearch_listcultures.org/2009-August/004174.html

Even when everything material is supplied, raising children will still be 
something that takes a lot of time.

Still, one might assume that even if most people alive now will die out as a 
culture and genes (because they won't have many children), the few families 
who can adapt to a world of abundance and have several children might pass 
that tendency on to offspring. Or, they might not. Everyone talks about "the 
will to live" as something to celebrate, but "the will to have children" is 
actively attacked these days. And even when it is not, this is a fairly 
family-unfriendly industrial culture.

Here's an alternative scenario, just as one example, where the old inherit 
the earth:

2010

The US begins to move rapidly toward social measures in copyright reform, 
health care reform, and labor reform that essentially break the back of any 
notion of a small government state, by criminalizing self-publishing, being 
sick, or being jobless, producing low unemployment figures as the US prison 
population swells towards ten million. In re-ascendence, the Republican 
Party continues to advance primarily a police state agenda based on 
borrowing money and giving it to wealthy people.  The United States enters a 
long period of turning inward that will be copied in Europe but not in Asia. 
  The era of international flows and trades is now past its peak.

2014

China declares that the new communist vision is growth of opportunity
through local joy and happiness, effectively mandating that the People
become consumers.  The US dollar, in long decline as a carrying currency,
starts to become a secondary currency to the new Pan-Asia unit. A period of 
high inflation (50% annually) begins for the US dollar.

2017

Mandarin becomes the first language of the web.  Nearly all children
globally begin to study Chinese.  India and China greatly enhance their
economic links, especially as both have abandoned copyright and withdrawn 
from ACTA and the Berne convention. The USA threatens war, but no one takes 
it seriously, and people make jokes about how North Korea is now more 
progressive and connected than the USA. Fifty thousand people are executed 
in the USA for sharing out-of-print writings by Sinclair Lewis.
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_Can%27t_Happen_Here
The internet in the USA is taken down temporarily "for maintenance and 
upgrading".

2019

Ubiquitous cloud computing and device linkage makes security, communication,
income, banking and money all converge.  The average household uses more
compute cycles per second than the most powerful supercomputers in 2000.
Provision of electricty and cooling are the major economic components of any
household budget having surpassed transportation in 2016. Is the USA, only 
media produced by large corporations and the state is allowed. 
Hyperinflation begins to hit the US dollar, at a rate of 1000% per year.

2020

As the dollar reaches one trillion dollars per cup of coffee, the 
destructive impacts of hyperinflation are now starting to cause massive 
migrations and social turmoil. Armed robot sentries purchased from Samsung 
patrol all US borders, killing thousands af would-be border crossers each 
day. Other nations set 10 year targets to eliminate copyright from their 
economies.

The United States, which as become an isolated power in its lost decade of
economic growth, begins to envision radical restructuring of local economies
to reduce free speech outputs and to protect aging populations who are 
dominant politically and economically, but no longer personally productive. 
  The old call for robotic support helpers along lines in use in Japan for 
1/2 a decade. Unable to afford to maintain by then tens of million young 
people in prison, the USA amends the constitution to allow summary execution 
of anyone previously convicted of any crime if they have healthy organs that 
can be transplanted to old people.

2022

Most global universities exist only on line.  Older institutions have been
turned into open communities and greenscapes with collective governance
strategies along lines of co-ops or townhall styled local governments. Large 
purges take place at all US universities of academics guilty of thought 
crimes like suggesting harvesting organs from copyright violators is 
unconstitutional. Those academics who are now jobless are imprisoned and 
have their organs harvested. Obesity penalities eliminate demands for poor 
food choices in most of the world; there is widespread support for this to 
ensure young people have healthy organs.

2025

Nearly all projects are capitalized against a social account that builds
facilities determined by complex AI-assisted long-range eco-survival plans. 
Generally, those plans involve converting half the population into Soylent 
Green. Most food and pharmaceutical production occurs within 10 miles of the
consumer's living space.  Earth's population peaks at 8 and 3/4 billion.

Most fish are extinct that are not in enclosed sea farms. With the USA in 
crisis and cities in flames, many species become a slow comeback.

2027

Anti-work parties become commonplace along European models started in
universities in the 20-teens.  The agendas generally call half-jokingly for
"bread and circuses"   Most envision a handover to robots within 20 years
for all important managerial and process functions. The USA runs out of tear 
gas; Greece supplies some it had stockpiled but is no longer using since it 
became mostly self-sufficient through participation in a related 
international consortium.
http://groups.google.com/group/openmanufacturing/browse_thread/thread/6336f30458de0648/e009aac004f3ad9d

2030

The computer processing power of integrated software clouds exceeds human
brains by several orders of magnitude.  Nearly all software is designed and
written by robots.  All medicine is done by robots.  The average age of
persons in the Europe climbs to 50. In the USA, with most young people dead 
and their organs harvested, the average age is 70. Millions are now living 
to 110.

2032

Nearly all economic activity occurs within 10 miles of one's home.  Robots
and cloud computing handle most entertainment, chores, management processes
and research.  Humans overwhelmingly work on governing the commons in local
pools of advisors to robotic planners. Those humans who do not agree with 
the robot plans are harvested.

2035

Average age of a human is 44.  In Germany, the average age is 63.  In the US
it is 80.  Population is now in freefall...down to roughly 6.5 billion.
Plans predict a global population of 0 billion humans in 2090 with carbon
levels stabilized at 437 ppm and a large military robotics presence in 
space. Synthetic production of human organs from scratch is perfected by the 
robots just out of curiosity; no humans are told of this.

2040

Life is essentially no different in China than it is in Utah or Nigeria.
People live in clusters of robotically managed groups with little need for
long-range travel or movement.  Exercise is a common "career."  Other
similar self-focused careers are designed by robots for people to feel
meaning and enjoyment.

P2P exchanges of goods and services occur between robots who use excess
capacities to perform the production of planned needs.  Shipping is entirely
automated. Most robots are emigrating off planet to "be in the sun".

Humans plan for a world with dramatically lower population rates, in fact, 
total extinction.  Few choose to reproduce in the USA because the high 
social responsibilities entailed in multiple offspring and because there are 
very few young people left whose organs have not been harvested. A few 
Indians and Chinese managed to make it off-planet to space habitats, but are 
being pursued by self-replicating US military robots which do not consider 
themselves bound by international agreements outside the atmosphere.

52040

Some of the US American robots have drifted to a nearby solar system...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berserker_%28Saberhagen%29
"The Berserker series of science fiction short stories by Fred Saberhagen 
(1930-2007) is a variety of space opera in which robotic self-replicating 
machines intend to destroy all organic life. These berserkers, a doomsday 
weapon left over from an interstellar war 50,000 years ago, are killer 
spaceships furnished with machine intelligence, operating from 
asteroid-sized berserker bases where they are capable of building more 
Berserkers and auxiliary machines. The name is a reference to the human 
"Berserkers", warriors of Norse legend."

====

I'm not saying that's likely. Just somewhat different. :-)

--Paul Fernhout
http://www.pdfernhout.net/


Ryan Lanham wrote:
> The intent here is brevity based on highlights...
> 
> 2010
> 
> The US begins to move rapidly toward social measures in medicine and climate
> management that essentially break the back of any notion of a small
> government state.  In chaos, the Republican Party splits and reforms to
> advance primarily an anti-immigration agenda.  The United States enters a
> long period of turning inward that will be copied in Europe and Asia.  The
> era of international flows and trades is now past its peak.
> 
> 2014
> 
> China declares that the new communist vision is growth of opportunity
> through local joy and happiness, effectively mandating that the People
> become consumers.  The US dollar, in long decline as a carrying currency,
> starts to become a secondary currency to the new Pan-Asia unit.
> 
> 2017
> 
> Mandarin becomes the first language of the web.  Nearly all children
> globally begin to study Chinese.  India and China greatly enhance their
> economic links.
> 
> 2019
> 
> Ubiquitous cloud computing and device linkage makes security, communication,
> income, banking and money all converge.  The average household uses more
> compute cycles per second than the most powerful supercomputers in 2000.
> Provision of electricty and cooling are the major economic components of any
> household budget having surpassed transportation in 2016.
> 
> 2020
> 
> As carbon reaches 425 ppm, the destructive impacts of climate change are now
> starting to cause massive migrations and social turmoil.  Nations set 10
> year targets to eliminate fossil fuel from their economies.
> 
> The United States, which as become an isolated power in its lost decade of
> economic growth, begins to envision radical restructuring of local economies
> to reduce carbon outputs and to protect aging populations who are dominant
> politically and economically, but no longer personally productive.  The old
> call for robotic support helpers along lines in use in Japan for 1/2 a
> decade.
> 
> 2022
> 
> Most global universities exist only on line.  Older institutions have been
> turned into open communities and greenscapes with collective governance
> strategies along lines of co-ops or townhall styled local governments.
> Obesity penalities eliminate demands for poor food choices in most of the
> world.
> 
> 2025
> 
> Nearly all projects are capitalized against a social account that builds
> facilities determined by complex AI-assisted long-range eco-survival plans.
> Most food and pharmaceutical production occurs within 10 miles of the
> consumer's living space.  Earth's population peaks at 8 and 3/4 billion.
> 
> Most fish are extinct that are not in enclosed sea farms.  40% of all known
> species in 2009 are extinct or severaly endangered.  Many plants have
> succumbed to warming and treed landscapes outside of near arctic locations
> or rain forests are rare.
> 
> 2027
> 
> Anti-work parties become commonplace along European models started in
> universities in the 20-teens.  The agendas generally call half-jokingly for
> "bread and circuses"   Most envision an handover to robots within 20 years
> for all important managerial and process functions.
> 
> 2030
> 
> The computer processing power of integrated software clouds exceeds human
> brains by several orders of magnitude.  Nearly all software is designed and
> written by robots.  All medicine is done by robots.  The average age of
> persons in the US and Europe climbs to 50.   Millions are now living to
> 110.
> 
> 2032
> 
> Nearly all economic activity occurs within 10 miles of one's home.  Robots
> and cloud computing handle most entertainment, chores, management processes
> and research.  Humans overwhelmingly work on governing the commons in local
> pools of advisors to robotic planners.
> 
> 2035
> 
> Average age of a human is 44.  In Germany, the average age is 63.  In the US
> it is 55.  Population is now in freefall...down to roughly 7.5 billion.
> Plans predict a global population of 2.4 billion humans in 2090 with carbon
> levels stabilized at 437 ppm.
> 
> 2040
> 
> Life is essentially no different in China than it is in Utah or Nigeria.
> People live in clusters of robotically managed groups with little need for
> long-range travel or movement.  Exercise is a common "career."  Other
> similar self-focused careers are designed by robots for people to feel
> meaning and enjoyment.
> 
> P2P exchanges of goods and services occur between robots who use excess
> capacities to perform the production of planned needs.  Shipping is entirely
> automated.
> 
> Humans plan for a world with dramatically lower population rates.  Few
> choose to reproduce because the high social responsibilities entailed in
> multiple offspring.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
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