[p2p-research] A thirty year future of the transition to widescale P2P economies

[Ryan Lanham]

The intent here is brevity based on highlights...

2010

The US begins to move rapidly toward social measures in medicine and climate
management that essentially break the back of any notion of a small
government state.  In chaos, the Republican Party splits and reforms to
advance primarily an anti-immigration agenda.  The United States enters a
long period of turning inward that will be copied in Europe and Asia.  The
era of international flows and trades is now past its peak.

2014

China declares that the new communist vision is growth of opportunity
through local joy and happiness, effectively mandating that the People
become consumers.  The US dollar, in long decline as a carrying currency,
starts to become a secondary currency to the new Pan-Asia unit.

2017

Mandarin becomes the first language of the web.  Nearly all children
globally begin to study Chinese.  India and China greatly enhance their
economic links.

2019

Ubiquitous cloud computing and device linkage makes security, communication,
income, banking and money all converge.  The average household uses more
compute cycles per second than the most powerful supercomputers in 2000.
Provision of electricty and cooling are the major economic components of any
household budget having surpassed transportation in 2016.

2020

As carbon reaches 425 ppm, the destructive impacts of climate change are now
starting to cause massive migrations and social turmoil.  Nations set 10
year targets to eliminate fossil fuel from their economies.

The United States, which as become an isolated power in its lost decade of
economic growth, begins to envision radical restructuring of local economies
to reduce carbon outputs and to protect aging populations who are dominant
politically and economically, but no longer personally productive.  The old
call for robotic support helpers along lines in use in Japan for 1/2 a
decade.

2022

Most global universities exist only on line.  Older institutions have been
turned into open communities and greenscapes with collective governance
strategies along lines of co-ops or townhall styled local governments.
Obesity penalities eliminate demands for poor food choices in most of the
world.

2025

Nearly all projects are capitalized against a social account that builds
facilities determined by complex AI-assisted long-range eco-survival plans.
Most food and pharmaceutical production occurs within 10 miles of the
consumer's living space.  Earth's population peaks at 8 and 3/4 billion.

Most fish are extinct that are not in enclosed sea farms.  40% of all known
species in 2009 are extinct or severaly endangered.  Many plants have
succumbed to warming and treed landscapes outside of near arctic locations
or rain forests are rare.

2027

Anti-work parties become commonplace along European models started in
universities in the 20-teens.  The agendas generally call half-jokingly for
"bread and circuses"   Most envision an handover to robots within 20 years
for all important managerial and process functions.

2030

The computer processing power of integrated software clouds exceeds human
brains by several orders of magnitude.  Nearly all software is designed and
written by robots.  All medicine is done by robots.  The average age of
persons in the US and Europe climbs to 50.   Millions are now living to
110.

2032

Nearly all economic activity occurs within 10 miles of one's home.  Robots
and cloud computing handle most entertainment, chores, management processes
and research.  Humans overwhelmingly work on governing the commons in local
pools of advisors to robotic planners.

2035

Average age of a human is 44.  In Germany, the average age is 63.  In the US
it is 55.  Population is now in freefall...down to roughly 7.5 billion.
Plans predict a global population of 2.4 billion humans in 2090 with carbon
levels stabilized at 437 ppm.

2040

Life is essentially no different in China than it is in Utah or Nigeria.
People live in clusters of robotically managed groups with little need for
long-range travel or movement.  Exercise is a common "career."  Other
similar self-focused careers are designed by robots for people to feel
meaning and enjoyment.

P2P exchanges of goods and services occur between robots who use excess
capacities to perform the production of planned needs.  Shipping is entirely
automated.

Humans plan for a world with dramatically lower population rates.  Few
choose to reproduce because the high social responsibilities entailed in
multiple offspring.


-- 
Ryan Lanham
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