[p2p-research] Ubiquitous cloud computing by 2019?

[Nathan Cravens]

If a global informations mesh is believed to be for a price this is what
will commonly be referred to as: a supply-side fantasy.

Nathan

On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 1:40 AM, Paul D. Fernhout <
pdfernhout at kurtz-fernhout.com> wrote:

> Ryan wrote:
>
>> Futurism for higher ed...10 years on...
>>
>> Sent to you by Ryan via Google Reader: Ubiquitous cloud computing by
>> 2019? - Dennis Carter, eCampus News George O. Strawn has seen
>> higher-education technology grow exponentially since the via Online
>> Learning Update by Ray on 11/9/09
>> George O. Strawn has seen higher-education technology grow
>> exponentially since the late 1960s, so a future campus that operates
>> entirely on cloud computing where students have access to PCs that
>> execute a trillion instructions per second does not seem far-fetched to
>> him. In 10 years, Strawn said, he expects all scholarly material to be
>> available on the internet--a departure from today, when copyright laws
>> prohibit online access to the vast majority of scholarly journals.
>> Publishers' blockades, he said, eventually will crumble under public
>> pressure.
>>
>
> A link to the article:
>  "Ubiquitous cloud computing by 2019?"
>  http://www.ecampusnews.com/news/top-news/?i=61657
>
> If undergrads can access enough computing power to simulate much of what a
> human brain does, what will they do for work after college? :-)
>  "When will computer hardware match the human brain?"
>  http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
>
> Some futurism for higher ed, 20 years on, which I posted here: :-)
>  "The Mindset of the Class of 2029 / Ignores the big picture on exponential
> computing"
>  http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=279703&cid=20354965
>
> Computers are increasing by a factor of about 1000X in performance per
> price per decade. By the time any toddler of today is finishing
> graduate school, computers will be about 1000X (for the first decade)
> multiplied (not added) by 1000X (for the second decade) or about
> a million times faster than they are now -- just like computers are
> about a million times faster than twenty to thirty years ago (at
> constant dollars, or so MIPS per $). Related links:
>    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law>
>    http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?pr intable=1
>    http://www.bootstrap.org/dkr/discussion/0126.html
>    http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
> (The rate of exponential growth itself is even increasing!)
> According to that last link, those AI computers had about 1 MIPS
> processing power. (And it's a funny idea Hans Moravec had, and I think
> correct, that only for the last decade or so has AI been taking
> advantage of faster desktop CPUs going beyond 1 MIPS..)
>
> As an example, compare the late 1970s Apple II
>    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_II
> with todays' (2007) eight core Mac Pro.
>    http://www.apple.com/macpro/
>
> Then --> Now (approximate increase)
>
> CPU: 1 Mhz --> 8 * 3 Ghz (8000X faster, but about another 100X internal
> improvements from wider data operations and pipelining and such).
> (somewhere in x100000 to x1000000)
>
> RAM: 4K --> 4GB RAM just starting to be common. (x1000000)
> Disk: 300K disks --> 300 gigabyte disks. (x1000000)
> And all for about the same price (adjusted for inflation).
> Some other considerations:
>
> Bandwidth: 11 bytes/sec modem at $10 / hour --> 800000 bytes/second by
> cable at $60 / month (about x10000 faster, well that doesn't quite fit,
> but its still a big improvement -- and if you factor in the cost for
> continuous access, there is probably another 10x or 100X boost in there,
> producing effectively close to a x1000000 improvement of price/performance)
>
> Printing: about 1000 characters per minute for $1200 printer -> 10 pages
> per minute each with millions of color pixels -- with the printer often
> now free with the computer (not sure how to call this as a multiple,
> since quality has changed so much).
>
> So, here are possible specs for a personal computer of 2027 if it was a
> million times faster than today's:
>
> CPU: 8 * 3 Ghz --> 8000 X 3 THz (1000X more CPUs each 1000X faster,
> though I think it likely such systems might just instead have a million
> processors at about today's speeds, perhaps interweaving memory and
> processing power)
>
> RAM: 4GB --> 4000TB (enough to hold all of the current surface internet
> in RAM, see:
>
> http://www2.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info-2003/internet.htm
> )
> See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigabyte
> for MB, GB, TB, PB, EB series and their meaning
>
> DISK: 300GB --> 300PB (which is 300,000 TB)
> For reference, a DVD movie uncompressed is about 5GB.
> Note that, according to:
>  http://elegans.uky.edu/blog/?p=49
> 300 TB would allow you to record your entire life in video for 16hr/day
> for 100 years at 500MB/hr. So you could do that for 1000 people on just
> your own $3000 2027AD personal computer. Or you could just perhaps store
> the interesting bits of life video for perhaps a hundred thousand people
> or so. Needless to say, storing all of human music currently on CD would
> be trivial and not even noticeably strain such a computer's capacity.
> But there might be little point, as the system could possibly be able to
> just improvise music to suit your mood if you asked it.
>
> Bandwidth: 800KB/sec --> 800MB/sec (conservative, just x1000, from optical
> fiber to the home, but still enough to download a full length HD movie in a
> few seconds)
>  See: "Internet2 Land Speed Record -- 9.08 gigabits per second."
>      http://www.internet2.edu/lsr/
>
> Printing: 10 pages per minute in 2D (free, but toner costs) --> 10 cubic
> centimeters / minute in 3D (free with the computer, maybe the toner,
> especially for precious metals like gold or platinum, still costs).
> [Yes, I meant printing in *3D* as in:
> http://www.zcorp.com/products/printersdetail-450.a sp?ID=1
> "The ZPrinter 450 makes color 3D printing accessible to everyone. The
> lowest priced color 3D printer available, the ZPrinter 450 outputs
> brilliant color models with timesaving automation and an even easier
> printing process. It is the ideal introduction to color 3D printing for
> a wide variety of applications from product design, production
> prototypes, and architectural concepts to education, healthcare, and the
> arts."]
>
> Even if I were to be off by a factor of 100X, this would still be an
> impressive computer, 10000X more powerful than what we have now. And in
> another ten years by 2037 we would definitely see such a machine. And
> then ten years beyond that, what will the performance be of desktop
> computers when today's toddlers start having toddler's of their own?
> Unimaginable at another 1000X performance. Desktop computers about as
> powerful than all the computers in the world today put together?
>
> Granted, growth rates may eventually slow down -- but people who study
> this suggest exponential growth in performance/price will continue for
> at least the next few decades.
>    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law>
> [Heat dissipation and power consumption are likely the biggest hurdles.]
>
> Another way these trends can be looked at is that today's wireless
> networked desktop computer will be purchasable for less than a penny and
> be somewhere in size between a postage stamp and a grain of sand (and
> likely solar powered) in 2027.
>
> What does that mean for privacy or for schooling itself when a kid can buy
> $10 worth of computing dust and sprinkle 1000 networked audio pickup nodes
> around?
>
> ===
>
> See also:
> "Vernor Vinge's short story "Fast Times at Fairmont High" "
> http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0518.html
>
> We are going to witness the collapse of all sorts of institutions from
> this. Ten years ago, who would have accepted predicting the collapse of the
> newspaper industry?
>
> Just more fuel for the fire:
> "School Daze"
> http://listcultures.org/pipermail/p2presearch_listcultures.org/2009-October/005379.html
>
> Our government policy on school and jobs is completely out of touch with
> our exponentially changing capacity.
>
> I'm hoping, in trying to be optimistic, that these institutions will just
> fade away as p2p processes come to dominate the landscape, same as
> newspapers are doing now.
>
> --Paul Fernhout
> http://www.pdfernhout.net/
> http://www.beyondajoblessrecovery.org/
>
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>



-- 
Churpy: http://twitter.com/nwcravens
Put-er-dere: http://p2pfoundation.net/Nathan_Cravens
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