[p2p-research] Why Post-Capitalism is Rubbish

[Ryan Lanham]

After some consideration, I've decided that the post-capitalism talk
is largely Utopian fantasy:

1. Current financial assets are considerably more than all non-cash assets
in the world.  Over the counter derivatives alone in 2007 were over 600
trillion USD.  (that's trillion with a T).  The innovation that has been
financial markets goes on strong and the wealth created is anything but
fictitious.

2. The total global gross product (GDP of the world in 2007) was about 47
trillion USD (almost 14 trillion of that in the USA).  So far in the
recession/depression, it has sunk globally by about 2% and certainly not
more than 4%.  Total stock market valuations were 51 trillion in 2007 and
are perhaps slightly less than that now.

3. Most of Africa and large portions of Asia including China are still
growing.

4. There are real signs that the green capitalism is starting to take off.
Last year there was more increase in alternative energy production in the US
than in all other forms of energy production (including nuclear power.)

5. Venture Capital has spent 29 billion without production on Web 2.0
companies and there have been no bankruptcies.

6. The majority of US banks will soon be nationalized (along with those in
the UK and Germany) with very little immediate impact.

7. Unemployment in the US is just reach 10% where it has been sustained for
years in other nations like Germany.

8. Capitalism in Asia and Africa is taking off considerably.  The potential
for growth is probably only bound by climate change issues.

9. There are no serious labor movements in the US, China nor India.

10. Japan, China and India have no debt and can sustain negative growth for
at least a generation.

11. There are no function democracies that are non-market oriented.  There
are increasingly few nations that are moving sharply to the left.  Many that
have, including Argentina (formerly) and Venezuela (now) are emerging from
or headed toward bankruptcy.  Venezuelan foreign reserves are falling faster
as a percentage of total than any other nation's.

12. Even with a collapse of the dollar, oil exploding to several hundred
dollars a barrel (both of which are reasonably feasible), there is little to
suggest that this would be more than a hiccup for markets and capitalism.

13. While the nation state may be in decline for financial reasons, there is
no sign (anywhere) if disintegration.  Even where hollow states are the
norm, continual processes of rehabilitation suggest that few believe a
non-state solution is seriously feasible in the near term with any
reasonable standard of living.

That said, I think P2P is exciting, vital and an excellent tonic to excesses
of capitalism and markets.  However, I am convinced the main issue is
climate change.  If there is an Achilles' heel of capitalism, it is climate
change.  That places those who are anti-capitalist in a strange place--to
advocate most effectively against what they dislike they must align to a
degree with what is the greatest threat to humanity overall.  I seriously
doubt that in the next 50 years there is much threat to capitalism from any
non-coercive process.  If this was even the first wave of a massive crisis
10x the scale of the current, capitalism and markets could easily endure it
in most of the globe and probably all of the globe that has significant
production.

For these reasons, I believe decoupling P2P research and advocacy from
supposedly associated advocacy against markets would tend to advance the
legitimacy and contribution of P2P theory to be more productive in a
reasonable time frame.

My own thought is that market anarchism is a realistic evolutionary
development for many backwater geographies of capitalism (central England,
mountain districts, Central Africa, rural Europe (especially Eastern Europe
and Southern Europe)--where it already shows signs of developing into a
characteristic peripheral mode of operation.  It will not be relevant in the
increasingly powerful city-states/small states of tomorrow like Singapore,
Switzerland, Austria, London, Sidney, Jakarta, New York, Shanghai etc.
Those areas will continue as highly industrialized market-oriented trading
entities with banks, capital, financial markets, etc. for the distant
foreseeable future.

I am for sustainable wealth by the best means.  I am for as much freedom as
is possible.  But I am also for not advocating unrealistic Utopias that
simply are not going to matter.

Ryan Lanham
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