[p2p-research] Shrinkage of PhD numbers...

[Ryan Lanham]

Rick Reis via Scott Jaschik covers shrinking PhD pools at US institutions.
There are many implications of course...particularly if the trend continues
as it seems it must:

"Several colleges have recently announced that, regardless of application
quality, they plan to admit fewer Ph.D. students for this coming fall than
were admitted a year ago."
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Folks:

Folks:
The posting below by Scott Jaschik, looks at the economics of doctoral
education and why this is leading some schools to reduce future enrollment
in Ph.D. programs.  It is from the March 30, 2009 issue of INSIDE HIGHER ED,
an excellent - and free - online source for news, opinion and jobs for all
of higher education.  You can subscribe by going to:
http://insidehighered.com/.  Also for a free daily update from Inside
Higher  Ed, e-mail [scott.jaschik at insidehighered.com]. Copyright © 2009
Inside Higher Ed Reprinted with permission.
Regards,
Rick Reis
reis at stanford.edu
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                                     Tomorrow's Graduate Students
        -------------------------------------------- 1,020 words
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                                         Ph.D. Admissions Shrinkage
March 30, 2009
If ever there was a year that colleges were anxious about enrolling new and
continuing students, this is it. Whether dependent on tuition revenue or
state appropriations formulas, colleges are doing everything they can think
of in this economically challenging year to attract students -- and the
dollars that follow them.
But there is a notable exception: Several colleges have recently announced
that, regardless of application quality, they plan to admit fewer Ph.D.
students for this coming fall than were admitted a year ago. The economics
of doctoral education are different enough from those of other programs that
some universities' doctoral classes will be taking a significant hit, with
potential ramifications down the road for the academic job market, the
availability of teaching assistants, and the education of new professors.
Emory University plans a 40 percent cut in the number of new Ph.D. students
it will enroll this fall. Columbia University is planning a 10 percent cut.
Brown University has called off a planned increase in Ph.D. enrollments. The
University of South Carolina is considering a plan to have some departments
that have admitted doctoral students every year shift to an every-other-year
system. These cuts are exclusively for Ph.D. programs. Terminal master's
programs and professional school programs are generally being encouraged to
fill their classes; those programs are of course ones in which many
universities assume students will pay most or all costs themselves, using
loans as needed.
The economic difference between Ph.D. and non-Ph.D. students is that the
former tend to be supported with tuition waivers and stipends, while many of
the latter pay their own way or bring in federal or other aid, such that
colleges (beyond the altruistic reasons for educating students) are bringing
in money, too. Doctoral students at many universities receive full support
from their universities, creating a very different dynamic -- especially
coupled with the need to make large cuts in budgets.
Emory is an example. The graduate program there must cut its budget by 13
percent. But all of its current students were promised their packages for up
to five years of support -- and those pledges were made prior to the
economic downturn. So officials determined that the only way the graduate
school could meet its budget target was a sharp reduction in the number of
new Ph.D. students admitted.
Last fall, about 360 students started Ph.D. programs at Emory. This fall,
that figure will be about 220.
Ulf Nilsson, a spokesman for Emory's graduate school, said that the
enrollment should start going back up in subsequent years, even if funding
remains flat, as some of the full fellowships and stipends currently being
used by graduate students will expire, so the full brunt of the cuts won't
need to be felt in the incoming class. While the cuts affect all programs,
Nilsson said some science programs are being cut by smaller percentages
because they are able to "manipulate this on their own" since they tend to
have more access to non-Emory funds to support graduate students.
The director of graduate studies in one Emory department, who asked not to
be identified, said that many there have been worried about the possible
impact of the cuts, especially if enrollment does not return to normal
quickly. But this director said that Emory officials have been reassuring
that this policy is due to a quick need for a substantial budget cut, not a
shift in philosophy on the role of graduate education, and that enrollments
will return to normal over time.
Nilsson acknowledged that Emory may have to make adjustments down the road,
as the pool of teaching assistants has just become smaller. He said,
however, that there may be more teaching positions available as a result to
those whose funding runs out before they finish their doctorates.
At Columbia University, the 10 percent cut is for the Graduate School of
Arts and Sciences, which typically enrolls 320 new Ph.D. students a year.
While the universities named in this article are announcing the changes on
an institution-wide basis, some graduate program directors elsewhere said
that similar changes were going on, on department-by-department bases,
without much fanfare.
How this will all play out down the road is very unclear. As the job market
for new Ph.D.'s, especially in the humanities, has become so tight, some
academics have questioned the appropriateness of departments admitting as
many students as they have in the past. At the same time, aligning current
Ph.D. admissions and job market trends is difficult, given the long time
frame for completing doctorates. There are many underemployed Ph.D.'s today
cursing some reports in the past predicting major shortages of faculty
members -- shortages that never came to pass.
Catharine R. Stimpson, dean of the Graduate School of Arts and Science at
New York University, said that the job market is an appropriate
consideration in determining class size, but not the only one. Stimpson said
that NYU plans a "very modest reduction" in the number of new Ph.D. students
for the fall, even though most departments saw double-digit percentage
increases in applications.
Stimpson said NYU may want to reduce class size further a year from now. The
factors to be considered, she said, include the job market, applicant
quality, and the right fits between the applicants and the NYU faculty in
terms of research interests and expertise. And she said many universities
must also factor in the costs of supporting graduate students.
Contraction, she added, is not necessarily unfair to would-be graduate
students. In the current environment, she asked, "Is it fair to bring them
in?"
Julia Mortyakova, a doctoral student in music at the University of Miami and
president of the National Association of Graduate-Professional Students,
said she worried about the trend of reducing admissions. While she
acknowledged that new Ph.D.'s are facing a tough job market, she said it was
important to think long term. The future American economy, she said, depends
on new creative ideas and on research on topics such as energy and the
environment.
"We need new people doing new research, and that's what grad students do,"
she said.
- Scott Jaschik

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