[p2p-research] The Fourth Turning (book)

[marc fawzi]

The following is a review from 2002 of the book The Fourth Turning, which
you may have heard of in connection with the current crisis. The authors had
predicted back in 97 that a major crisis on the scale of the Great
Depression would happen around 2005. They were not that far off!



"  47 of 48 people found the following review helpful:
 3.0 out of 5 stars *Explanatory--but don't rely on it entirely*, February
19, 2002
 By *A Customer*
 The book _The Fourth Turning_ is a history combined with prophecy written
by generational sociologists William Strauss and Neil Howe. This book is
inspiring and provides interesting explanations for why things are the way
they turned out to be, but it still doesn't have all the answers.

The theory is basically that history goes through four types of turnings: a
conservative High, in which institutions are stable after the success of a
major war (the Era of Good Feelings, the Victorian Era, the '50s), a
spiritual Awakening in which young people scrap convention for religious
discovery (Ben Franklin's Great Awakening, the Transcendental Awakening, the
turn-of-the-century Muckrake reform era, the '60s), a wild Unravelling (the
colorful Gold Rush, the roaring twenties, and the current era that began
about 1984), and a fourth turning -- or Crisis (the Revolutionary War, the
Civil War and the Great Depression and World War II were the last three
examples). A catalyst will spark the Fourth Turning that will become around
2005. These turnings change when each generation enters a new phase of life.

After you read this book, it's one of those books that completely transforms
your mode of thinking. Both the present and the prophesied future are
explained by means of generations -- fit into four different types
("archetypes") that shift along with the turnings. The authors identify the
Lost Generation (born 1883-1900), the G.I. Generation (born 1901-1924), the
Silent Generation (born 1925-1942), the Baby Boomers (born 1943-1960), the
13th Generation (born 1961-1981) and the Millennial Generation (born since
1982). They explain how these generations relate to those throughout
history, and date the historical generations born all the way back to 1433.
Generation X, for instance, which corresponds roughly with what they
identify as the 13th Generation, is similar to the freewheeling Lost
Generation of the Roaring '20s, their flouting of the Drug War brings to
mind the Lost Generation during the Prohibition Era. Once you read this
book, you start to think of everyone generationally, all your family and
friends, people you know, celebrities, people you read about in the news,
historical figures, the characters on TV shows and the ages of people in TV
commercials. Your mind accepts a completely new paradigm -- and a
classification of people that works, as the authors state, much more
reliably than gender, ethnicity, or even region of the U.S."


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http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0767900464?ie=UTF8&tag=charleshughsm-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0767900464
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