[p2p-research] [Open Manufacturing] Fwd: there is no energy crisis

Sun Mar 1 02:48:00 CET 2009

Going by the analysis (or lack of!) no one has yet showed me a rational
argument why gallium is peaking or has peaked.

It's that sort of assertion without analytical backup that I'm arguing
against, not that demand/supply economics works.

If you have read the P2P Energy Economy model (now frozen/abandoned and
being forked to yield a more realistic/less ambitious model) you'll see that
I take demand/supply dynamics apart and show why over and under production
can both be eliminated as part of a model that supports sustainable
abundance, i.e. walks away from scarcity-enforcing supply/demand
greed-o-nomics.

The argument I was making in this thread (overall) is about the LACK of
analysis (or proper analysis) behind the claim that gallium supplies have
peaked. The thread I'm referring to is called "List of Articles for Gallium
... " and it's on the P2P Research list.

The argument about the argument:

1. If an argument produces a the same pattern when viewed from all angles
and positions then it's an empty argument.

2. If an argument produces a completely different pattern when viewed from
different positions and angles then it's a highly contested argument.

3. A reasonable argument produces a slightly different pattern when viewed
from different positions and angles. This way people have room for seeing
things differently but everyone still sees the same thing.

I generally start with #2 (chaos) to get the most debate going and lead to
#3 after much debate, so I can understand how if you look at what I had said
initially from different position and even just a slightly different angle
you would have seen something completely different, and I'm tempted to
engage in the debate but I have a better idea now for a more efficient
process.

Going deeper into the meta argument, in very technical way, the
mathematician Penrose had done some work on extremely simple rules that give
rise to an 'infinitely non-repeating pattern' way before modern science
discovered the same behavior (e.g. cellular automata) so the next currency
model I'm designing, the one based on cpu and man hours for p2p open
software production, is going to start from #3 not #2, so there will be far
less debate but also far less wrestling with everyone.

Not that I'm tired, just that I think efficiency is key to scalability, and
that applies to generalized debates (and generalized exchanges, too!)

:-)
Marc

On Sat, Feb 28, 2009 at 4:46 PM, Josef Davies-Coates <
josef at uniteddiversity.com> wrote:

> Marc: I think your faith in basic economic theory and supply/ demand
> is massively misplaced.
>
> Economics theory is based in evidently false assumptions.
>
> I like markets, and think they can be reasonable allocators of
> resources in some limited circumstances.
>
> But saying stuff like "its basic supply/ demand math" makes me begin
> to question the value of your otherwise very interesting work on P2P
> Energy/ Money stuff.
>
> The basic assumption of economic theory is that people are rational
> (rarely true) self-interested profit maximisers (very often not true)
> and that markets allocate resources efficiently in conditions of
> perfect fair competition (not even close) with perfect information
> (not even close).
>
> Personally I don't think we've even begun to see the fallout of the
> current economic downturn.
>
> I agree with Sam that the future wont be like the past nor present. To
> me there evidently is an energy crisis already in that many many
> people work (i.e. expend their energy) in soul and ecosystem
> destroying industries and many do not have enough calories (i.e.
> energy) to eat each day. There is a massive crisis in how we generate
> and distribute energy resources of all kinds.
>
> I don't personally share any hope in thin film solar technologies to
> keep things ticking along as they are. Nor do I want things to keep
> ticking over as they are because as we all know things are fucked up
> (i.e. unjust, unsustainable etc.) so I actually hope there is no
> silver energy bullet, regardless of how much gallium or other
> substances are in the ground.
>
> At a recent Royal Agricultural College event, Nigel Curry Director of
> the Countryside and Community Research Institute was asked to respond
> to the question “can we live better and consume less?” His response
> was that consuming less is in fact the only way to live better. I
> agree.
>
> To me the whole "how to generate energy" debate completely misses the
> point anyway because we've all known for years (haven't we?) that the
> cheapest and easiest watts to generate are negawatts, i.e. it is much
> cheap and easier to use less energy than to generate more, whatever
> the technology.
>
> With less abundant energy resources delusions of "independence" fall
> apart and we become forced to (re)discover once more what really makes
> up happy: being part of a purposeful community. Even unreasonable
> "I'll create a complete global village construction set all by myself
> people" like Marcin know that he can't achieve his goals without 30
> other people on site people and 1000 True fans. That is actually a
> pretty big community. :P
>
> Anyways, its late and I'm probably waffling :)
>
> Toodle-pip,
>
> Josef.
>
>
> 2009/2/20 Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>:
> > May I suggest a cooling down,
> >
> > we have generally managed to communicate without too much personal
> strife,
> >
> > and it would be nice to keep it that way,
> >
> > I'm addressing this to no one in particular, so please let's stick to
> > arguments, presented in a civil manner,
> >
> > Michel
> >
> > On Fri, Feb 20, 2009 at 3:27 PM, marc fawzi <marc.fawzi at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >>
> >> Re: Fioretti:
> >>
> >> The use of ADD-worsening technologies such as SMS, Twitter, or being
> >> subscribed to 20+ mailing lists is what I'm knocking down, not people
> >> who suffer from ADD.
> >>
> >> On Fri, Feb 20, 2009 at 12:20 AM, M. Fioretti <mfioretti at nexaima.net>
> >> wrote:
> >> > I respect Michel request to just drop this indium/gallium dead horse
> >> > for now on the list, that's why I just cut off that part. The only
> >> > thing I'm replying here is to congratulate you for your tact towards
> >> > people with disabilities of any kind:
> >> >
> >> > On Thu, Feb 19, 2009 12:39:11 PM -0800, marc fawzi wrote:
> >> >> This maybe the reason i don't want to make it easier for you/others
> >> >> to resort to ADD mode. If you want direct communication that works
> >> >> for ADD...
> >> >
> >> > I'll continue privately.
> >> > Marco F.
> >> > --
> >> > Your own civil rights and the quality of your life heavily depend on
> how
> >> > software is used *around* you:
> http://digifreedom.net/node/84
> >> >
> >> > _______________________________________________
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> >> > p2presearch at listcultures.org
> >> > http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
> >> >
> >>
> >> _______________________________________________
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> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
> > http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
> > http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
> >
> > Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
> > http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
> > http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
> >
> > Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
> >
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> >
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>
>
>
> --
> Josef Davies-Coates
> 07974 88 88 95
> http://uniteddiversity.com
> Together We Have Everything
>
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