[p2p-research] [Open Manufacturing] Addressing Post-Scarcity Pitfalls

[Ryan Lanham]

Michel:

The US is a fair model of a future world:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/USEnFlow02-quads.gif

Transportation will decrease, but it will not remain carbon-based.  The only
serious alternative is electric.  Hydrogen will be a chunk, but not much.
Hybrid is a transition technology.

Local consumers in most places cannot access wind or solar in reasonable
quantities to make personal production realistic or economical.

I think small solar is a 3% at best sort of solution.  Centralized solar
turning turbines with hot air, etc. is more realistic.  Centralized power is
needed for industry and transportation and those aren't going away.  Yes,
there will be efficiencies and savings, but there will also be growth.
People in the undeveloped world are not going to agree to be poor while the
West gets to be rich with lights, heat/AC, mobility, shipping, intensive
mining and mineral use, etc.

Nuclear has a huge future role.  It has to.  People who argue otherwise are
simply hurting the planet--killing it.  We need power.  Nuclear is going to
be the main source (period.)  We should fight to minimize it wherever we
can, but it is the main source.

We need mostly decentralized medium scale distribution grids with medium
scale production resources that are sustainable and non-carbon.  That means
hydrogen to me.  Ocean energy can aid, but it isn't a real answer so far.
OTEC is the obvious vehicle to hydrogen--as is geo-thermal.  Iceland will be
rich one day when it uses its geo-thermal assets to make liquid hydrogen and
ship it around the world to hydro plants that fuel small and medium sized
coastal developments.  Everyone can be rich by building and deploying deep
ocean OTEC.  The Philippines, Indonesia, Australia, Nigeria,
Ethiopia/Somalia, India, Central America, the Caribbean--all obvious winners
with OTEC/hydrogen.

It has been positively criminal that hydrogen and means of production
haven't been pushed forward more vigorously.  Solar I see as a non-starter
that will be a minor player--it is too small to produce hydrogen and it is
too variable to be a realistic developed power source on its own.  The sun
is the answer, but you need energy storage--warm water gives you that...and
we've got plenty of it.

Ryan
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