[p2p-research] Fwd: [anytimenowdiscussion] Powerdown Revisited

[Kevin Carson]

*MuseLetter #186 / October 2007
by Richard Heinberg*

*Powerdown Revisited*

In my book *Powerdown: Options and actions for a Post Carbon World*, I
outlined four scenarios for the oil-constrained future: Last One Standing (a
fascistic battle for the world’s remaining resources), Powerdown
(government-led radical proactive conversion to energy frugality), Waiting
for the Magic Elixir (denial of the problem until it’s too late for
proactive responses), and Building Lifeboats (small communities coming
together to build a survivable, sustainable future for themselves and,
ultimately, for the rest of humanity). I closed the book by suggesting that,
while the current trajectory is toward the first and third options, we
should work on the second and fourth because these offer the greatest hope.

After a few years of further thought, it seems to me that my description of
these options could stand some modification. I would now say that our future
options consist of three broad scenarios.

Before outlining these, it seems important to review the circumstances that
will shape them. Because of the impending peaks in the global extraction
rates for oil, gas, and coal, the future almost certainly holds less
available energy, in total and especially per capita. That in turn means
that society will be less mobile. Coal and gas declines will produce
widespread and enduring electrical grid outages. Energy constraints coupled
with water scarcity and topsoil depletion also ensure higher food prices and
likely widespread food shortages. Because powered machines will lack fuel,
there will be substantially more need for human labor in agricultural
production, as well as in the energy-efficient retrofitting of existing
buildings and urban infrastructure. At the same time, there will be need for
massive relocation of people away from areas where temporarily increased
carrying capacity, established by cheap fuels, has vanished (think Los
Angeles or Phoenix, or the massive squatter settlements on the outskirts of
any number of huge cities in the global South): somehow, many of these
people must move, or be moved, to where they can be near soil and water. As
if all of that weren’t enough, we also face environmental catastrophe from
climate chaos and loss of biodiversity. All of these necessities and trends
will pose enormous challenges to every organized society. How to deal with
them?

Here are the three scenarios that I see as most likely.

*1. Feudal fascism.* This is basically similar to the Last One Standing
option in Powerdown, though now I would frame it somewhat differently. A
strong central government will organize work - though not in a way that many
people will enjoy. Think agricultural work camps and slave-labor factories.
The main selling point for the Fascist option (sorry for the word fascism,
but while it’s loaded with historical baggage it’s also handy, familiar, and
probably fairly accurate) would be the maintenance of order in a time of
increasing social disintegration. If you were a member of an upper middle-
class family clinging to its home, with a bit of gold or cash put aside and
a few cans of food in the larder, wouldn’t you fear marauding gangs going
door-to-door stealing food and money? Wouldn’t you welcome police patrols -
even if they had a shoot-to-kill policy and about as much self-restraint as
a Blackwater contractor in Baghdad? For the truly wealthy as well,
protection of property would provide a powerful motive to support the
repressive apparatus of state power - which, to be efficacious, would need
to be both brutal and omnipresent: troops on street corners; total
surveillance; torture and summary executions for dissidents. Forget freedoms
of expression or assembly. Naomi Klein’s book Shock Doctrine describes how
the groundwork for feudal fascism is already being laid via disasters like
Katrina, which open the way for massive privatization and the shredding of
civil liberties. The disaster ahead will be on a far greater scale, offering
the ultimate opportunity for that doctrine’s full scale implementation.

However, several decades down the line, energy shortages will grow so severe
that it may become impossible to sustain centralized fascistic governmental
authority over a continent-scale geographic area. At that point, fascistic
national governments might break down into feudal regionalism featuring
local warlords presiding over post-industrial serfdom.

I won’t bother to point out the drawbacks of pursuing this scenario; I trust
these speak for themselves.

*2. The Eco Deal.* Economist Susan George calls this option “Environmental
Keynesianism” (http://www.globalnetwork4justice.org/story.php?c_id=313). For
a snapshot image, think of the 1930s New Deal revisited in the context of
global ecological crisis.

Like Feudal Fascism, this scenario assumes a strong central government. But
in this case, government applies itself to the transformation of societal
infrastructure using an inclusive strategy that entails economic
re-distribution and the fostering of a culture of democracy. In the New
Deal, government created work programs and rebuilt infrastructure; there
were even some interesting experiments (on the part of Arthur Morgan, when
he worked for Roosevelt as head of the Tennessee Valley Authority) in the
creation of self-sufficient small communities. Similarly, governments
implementing an Eco-Deal might create the financial capital with which to
build electric streetcar systems in every city of 100,000 or more;
super-insulate millions of homes and commercial buildings and provide them
with geothermal heating; and reorganize agriculture on small-scale, organic
model - creating millions of jobs along the way.

This dramatic change in national priorities will require the provision of
public information. Currently, the commercial media promote consumerism;
instead, a conserver message will be needed, motivating one and all to work
together for the common good. There is a historic precedent here as well: in
the New Deal and World War II, Hollywood and the advertisers pitched in (to
some degree anyway) in the national effort, galvanizing the masses for
collective effort.

In this case as well, when shortages deepen the maintenance of a central
national authority will become more difficult; but here - if authorities
have attempted to seed a culture of democracy (again as in the 1930s) - the
nation organized around a centralized state might break down into some form
of decentralized bioregionalism.

*3. Bottoms Up.* There is a strong likelihood that, at least in some nations
or regions, strong central government will not survive the end of cheap
energy - especially if electrical grids fail. In that case, neither the
Feudal Fascist nor the Eco-Deal strategy would play out; instead, localities
would be on their own. Local governments and citizen groups would have the
task of maintaining order and flows of basic necessities. When hurricane
Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005, locals had a foretaste of this: it
was mostly up to ad-hoc citizen groups and what was left of city government
to rescue stranded families and deal with thousands of emergencies
throughout the area. Yet that disaster occurred in the world’s wealthiest
nation, which maintained elaborately equipped disaster-relief agencies.
Imagine a hundred Katrina-scale local disasters occurring intermittently in
the context of an international economic crisis and protracted regional grid
failures. What chance would there be, then, of a successful large-scale
response effort?

There are those who will find the bottoms-up strategy appealing even in the
absence of necessity - anarchists, libertarians, and other advocates of
localism and opponents of state power. Here would be an opportunity to
escape the oppressive, corrupt domination of the many by the few that has
characterized every state, indeed every civilization, since the Pyramid Age.
As societies come to have less energy available for transportation and
communication, they are bound to decentralize anyway eventually; why not
proceed directly to localism and bypass both of the big-government solutions
outlined above, which are destined to fail eventually in any case?

The central challenge of the bottoms-up approach is that communities are ill
equipped to provide even the most basic services (food, water, power,
security) to their citizens absent a working nexus of complexly
interconnected regional or national support systems. Even a century ago,
communities were much more self-sufficient. Today, few cities in the
industrialized world produce much in the way of food, clothing, or other
necessities: hospitals depend on the constant delivery of medicines and a
wide range of other supplies; grocery stores are continually restocked with
food from hundreds or thousands of miles away; even water and electrical
power may arrive by aqueducts and long-distance transmission lines. A
temporary interruption of these services would certainly be survivable, but
a town or city cut permanently adrift would quickly devolve into chaos. In
that case, reorganization of society from the grassroots up would take time;
meanwhile, an immense human tragedy would ensue.

Thus it would be unwise to give up prematurely on efforts at the national
and international levels, even if the long-term goal is a society organized
according to bioregional principles. Every nation has its own likely
trajectory with regard to these scenario-options. Some countries may
initially respond to scarcity with a law-and-order clampdown that seeks to
preserve existing power relations at all costs; then, as it becomes clear
that there isn’t enough social support or resource availability to maintain
a massive machine of repression, the latter could give way to a Bottoms-up
scenario or perhaps even a brief episode of Let’s Make an Eco-Deal. Other
countries may start with all the best Keynesian intentions, only to see the
unfolding of scarcity so dire that it leads to social unrest that can
seemingly only be quelled by heavy-handed authoritarianism.

In the US, China, and Russia, authoritarian solutions appear to be the
default responses for the moment. This makes international conflict more
likely in the years immediately ahead.

So: Where shall we focus our efforts? As I suggested in Powerdown, there is
important work to be done at all levels of social organization.

Individuals and families should take to heart the advice given prior to
every commercial airline flight: “Secure your oxygen mask before helping
others.” In other words, see to your own survival prospects first. This is
not necessarily selfish behavior: communities and nations in which
individual members are prepared and relatively self-sufficient will fare
much better than those in which everyone is dependent and unequipped. If no
one is prepared, who can teach others what to do? Learn the life-skills of
the pre-fossil-fuel era; know how to use and repair hand tools; know where
your water comes from and how to compost wastes; grow food.

Communities must begin now to redevelop their local support infrastructure -
especially local food systems. City officers should be thinking about how to
sustain emergency services, water delivery and wastewater treatment, and
communications, given a prolonged scarcity or absence of fuel and
electricity. Plans should be under way for the dramatic expansion of public
transit services. Individuals can help jump-start all such efforts by
speaking to elected and appointed officials, by volunteering for relevant
community service work, and also simply by getting to know their neighbors.

National leaders must begin to take seriously the enormous challenges ahead,
and to think through the options available. They must quickly come to
realize that any effort to follow economic plans based on projecting into
the future past rates of growth in energy consumption will lead to systemic
failure. Only a dramatic, rapid, systematic reorganization of the economy to
function with declining rates of energy flow can avert breakdown. Careful
thought must be given to the dire implications of fascistic solutions to the
emerging energy crisis, so that those solutions are not implemented as a
knee-jerk response to societal stress. Nations must initiate efforts to
forge cooperative strategies toward sustainable interdependence (such as the
Oil Depletion Protocol) rather than geopolitical resource competition.
Individuals can help foster these developments by educating elected
officials and by actively opposing militaristic and fascistic measures.

Is there realistic hope for a broad-scale, peaceful Eco-Deal? While many
current world trends bode ill, there is no justification for giving up and
assuming the worst outcome. Even if some nations such as the US endure
overtly fascistic regimes, the enormous societal pressures brought on by
energy scarcity may fairly quickly undermine those regimes and open the way
for more inclusive solution, which in the case of the US will draw on a deep
historic resonance with the nation’s experience during the 1930s.

In any case, two things are absolutely clear: business as usual is not one
of the options; and the more we do now to prepare at every level, the better
off we all will be.

*As the World Burns*

September is an equinoctial month - a time of momentary balance,
instability, and change. Day and night are of equal length; however, the
rate of change in the relative lengths of day and night is at its peak.

It's been an unusually busy and stressful month for me personally. Leonardo
Dicaprio's enviro-doc "11th Hour" hit the theaters, featuring yours truly
on-screen for a few seconds (though the producer and director decided
against including a mention of Peak Oil). Early in September I gave a
presentation at the UN at the behest of two organic agriculture
organizations (the Soil Association of Britain and the Shumei Foundation of
Japan). On Thursday the 13th, a CNN Money reporter called wanting
information about Peak Oil; his story appeared the next day. The very first
copies of my new book, Peak Everything, shipped during the last week of the
month. A few days ago a Korean TV crew stopped by and filmed me at home for
a three-part documentary to air in November. And a family emergency (aging
parent) sent me off to the Midwest for a week. As the saying goes, there's
no rest for the wicked.

The month was no less eventful for the rest of the world - though of course
the scale of significance of the following items is approximately 6.7
billion times greater than for the preceding ones.

Maybe the best place to start is with a general comment. It's getting pretty
damn obvious that the world is sliding head-first into the abyss at an
accelerating rate, with most Americans as oblivious as ever. The latest
indication of impending doom is a festering credit crunch brought on by the
inevitable puncturing of a bubble puffed up over the past few years through
the issuance of thousands of patently idiotic subprime, adjustable-rate, and
interest-only mortgage loans.

The deeper story is that this is just the last of a series of bubbles that
the US Federal Reserve has inflated in order to sustain for as long as was
humanly possible a fundamentally unsound national financial condition.

As I explained in Chapter 2 of *The Party's Over*, the US got rich
exploiting its own resources and labor. Its most valuable resource - oil -
went into decline forty years ago; since then, we Americans have tried to *
stay* rich by exploiting other nations' labor and resources, using leveraged
trade rules, dollar hegemony, and military threats. All this time, we
congratulated ourselves: *we* were living in a post-industrial information
economy; *they* were doing the dreary, obsolete work of actually making
things. *They* sweated and saved; it was up to *us* to spend and borrow. We
served an indispensable function in the global economy as the consumer of
last resort, as the engine of new debt creation (more debt equals more money
in circulation - i.e., more GDP growth), and as the global cop keeping order
in an unruly world (while also sneaking donuts and taking bribes). The
Chinese burned *their* coal and poisoned *their* workers and environment to
make *our* stuff, enabling us to enjoy a cleaner environment by keeping our
coal in the ground, while *they* loaned *us* the money to buy cheap Chinese
stuff with. Such a deal!

Life in bubble world was grand while it lasted. First there was the Third
World debt bubble of the '80s; then came the tech bubbles of the '90s; and
finally the real estate bubble of the '00s. Along the way, Wall Street hoped
for a little extra hot air from the privatization of Social Security, but
even Americans weren't stupid enough to sign onto that particular leveraged
buyout. All during this time, suburbanites got used to having more gadgets
and bigger cars and houses, even if they couldn't actually afford them.

But now we're at the end of the line. At last the rest of the world is
coming to realize that it doesn't really need Americans: the Chinese can
consume, too, after all. And the Asians can't really justify loaning us more
money; we're not going to pay it back - or if we do, it will be in devalued
dollars. But those loans can also be looked at as investments: other nations
have in effect bought US assets, which means that the wealth created from
those assets will flow to the new overseas owners, not to Americans. What's
left to buy - other than a lot of soon-to-be-foreclosed real estate? And how
much wealth will those assets produce once the bubble deflates?

It's also clear now that there are alternatives to the dollar, including the
euro, the yen, and the yuan. Not that the dollar won't be missed; when it
tanks, there will be as many financial casualties in Mumbai as Manhattan.
But currency traders are clearly heading for the exits, and the last one out
gets the booby prize - a bag of wooden nickels.

Yes, the rest of the world still must fear America's awesome weapons of mass
destruction: this mighty nation can certainly create an unholy mess when it
means to, as it is demonstrating in Mesopotamia. But that doesn't mean that
other nations actually have to obey it any more. The US can bomb to
smithereens any country it chooses, but it can't always count on forcing
that country to hand over its resources at gunpoint.

The dollar is hitting record lows. Gold and silver are hot commodities -
always a bad sign for the reigning paper currency. There are rumors of
possible bank failures (following a run on one British bank). If the Federal
Reserve tries to solve the liquidity crisis by lowering interest rates, that
just worsens inflation and exacerbates the dollar's problems. If the Fed
raises rates to prop up the dollar, that forces the banks and hedge funds to
confront their mountains of worthless paper and leads ultimately to
defaults, bank runs, and bank failures. Clearly the Fed fears the latter
scenario more than the former, so by lowering interest rates this month it
effectively pulled the plug on the dollar. The Saudis are now preparing to
de-link their economy from the US currency, while China is quietly selling
off dollar-denominated assets. One way or another, Americans are going to
soon see a rapid decline in their real standard of living.

Of course, another big event this month was oil's nose-bleed ascent to
record-high prices, over $82US per barrel. Part of the price hike resulted
from the dollar's weakness, but - as Goldman Sachs has pointed out - the
main reason was simply that demand is up while supply is down. The May 2005
peak for the rate of production of regular crude and the July 2006 peak for
all liquids are still holding. It may be that the technical maximum global
rate of flow for liquid fuels is still a couple of years away, but in effect
the peak is here *now*.

As for Iran, "all options" are still on the table, and the pretext for a
broad-scale air attack is apparently being patiently laid. Bush has vowed
that he will not leave office with the Iran question unresolved, and
France's new neocon leaders are running defense for Bush/Cheney, calling for
"the most severe sanctions possible" and for war if those "don't work."
Meanwhile, when Tehran actually complies with the International Atomic
Energy Agency's requests, this is viewed as a provocation. This month, *
Newsweek* revealed that Vice President Dick Cheney at one point considered
asking Israel to launch air strikes on an Iranian nuclear site, so as to
provoke Iran to lash out, thus giving Washington a pretext for more
extensive attacks (a scenario I discussed in *MuseLetter* for April 2007,
"Iran: We Will Know Soon"). Iranian President Ahmedinejad's appearances in
New York (at the UN and Columbia University) seemed only to give the US
media an opportunity to whip up further anti-Iranian public sentiment, while
the Senate's passage of the Lieberman-Kyl amendment (which Hilary Clinton
supported) provided a stamp of approval for any future military actions by
the current administration.

But surely the single most important event of the month was the revelation
that arctic sea ice is melting faster than even the most dire forecasts had
predicted. This is significant because it shows the power of reinforcing
feedback loops: as sunlight-reflecting ice melts, it leaves dark water in
its place - which absorbs more heat, causing more ice to melt, and so on.
This year's minimum extent of ice was about one million square miles (as of
September 16); the previous record low was 1.5 million in 2005. The rate of
melting this year was 10 times the recent annual average. This month the
Northwest Passage was ice-free for the first time in untold millennia. At
this rate, the north polar region could be ice-free in summer by 2015.

Altogether, it was an extraordinary 30 days. Yet so far there's been no
instantaneous economic implosion, and there's not much blood in the streets
(except perhaps in Myanmar), and so the mainstream media can safely focus on
the truly vital issues like O.J. Simpson's current legal scrapes and Britney
Spears's performance at the MTV awards.

Many writers who discuss the sort of stuff that interests me ("reality" I
think it's called) wrap the unutterable sadness of it all in a crisp
cellophane of cynicism. I'm guilty of that, too, from time to time -
certainly in this little monthly summary. How else to make it somehow
bearable?

*Addendum:* The latter brief essay is gloomier than my usual writing, and
one early reader inquired whether I am personally okay. I suspect that the
tone of the piece results partly from the stresses of recent travels and
from an intense period spent caring for a declining parent. While clearly I
was in a venting mood when I wrote these words, it was not my intention to
communicate hopelessness. On the other hand, I refuse to be required always
to play the role of cheerleader: it is important to identify solutions, but
it is also occasionally essential to point out where we are collectively in
our species journey, even when the facts call forth uncomfortable emotions.



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-- 
Kevin Carson
Center for a Stateless Society http://c4ss.org
Mutualist Blog:  Free Market Anti-Capitalism
http://mutualist.blogspot.com
Studies in Mutualist Political Economy
http://www.mutualist.org/id47.html
Organization Theory:  A Libertarian Perspective
http://mutualist.blogspot.com/2005/12/studies-in-anarchist-theory-of.html
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