[p2p-research] List of articles on Indium/Gallium Supplies

marc fawzi marc.fawzi at gmail.com
Wed Feb 25 04:49:08 CET 2009 

I have not seen a numerical analysis of the "time and scale" problem
as it applies to solar energy.

It's all in the analysis: if it seems that the calculation is well
founded (in facts and in terms of how correlations are treated) then
I'll buy it because not doing so would be going against the facts.

But I have not seen the original paper on "time and scale" or any
paper that presents a numerical analysis.

Generally speaking, I'm not comfortable deferring to experts if I can
parse the analysis myself both in terms of scrutinizing the facts and
the calculations, to make sure the facts are backed up (which is the
easy part and I think Kurt already did that) and to make sure the
calculations themselves are well founded.

Can we see some papers that contain such "time and scale" analysis
with respect to gallium and indium?

It may be true that there isn't enough of these substances to make
solar energy common place before oil goes thru the roof, but I want to
scrutinize that because the implications are not limited to the solar
cell industry; it affects everything from telecommunications
(including cell phones) to HDTVs to defense weapon systems, and more
importantly the future replacement for silicon in microchips where
gallium nitride is one of the prominent candidates.

In other words, the effect of gallium depletion is huge and very
broad. If we are truly reaching peak production, I would like to parse
the analysis myself, because it would mean that telecom (industry I
spent over a decade in) and various consumer and military electronics
will just stall while trying to find replacement, which is not making
much sense to me.

It's either the story of the century (as far as those industries are
concerned) or something is wrong in teh analysis.

If I could get a link to such analysis I would go over it and let you
know what I find out.

Marc

On 2/24/09, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
> Hi Marc,
>
> Kurt's point is not to abandon solar energy,
>
> It's a warning not to expect any miracles that will quickly and in time
> undo
> the current resource crisis, and let us continue to behave in extremely
> wasteful ways, expecting that a technological fix will save us 'in time'
> ...
>
> A lot of authors that have examined Peak Oil and other resource constraints
> have come to that conclusion (James Kunstler, Leslie Brown, etc...). I'm
> waiting for a documented response that does not relay on faith in a
> miraculous technofix, but so far, I have seen nothing coming,
>
> Michel
>
> On Tue, Feb 24, 2009 at 5:56 AM, marc fawzi <marc.fawzi at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> When a certain resource hits that peak point, the search intensifies
>> for a substitute.
>>
>> In the case of solar cells, the _substitute_ may be in the form of a
>> radically new technology based on photosynthesis + fuel cells (see MIT
>> press release in the previous message to this thread) which does not
>> involve silicon or gallium.
>>
>> So the point that I want to make is that we cannot say that since
>> gallium and indium is running out then we should forget "solar energy"
>> altogether. The sun is an almost infinite source of energy. Once we
>> perfect how we draw power from the sun, e.g. using photosynthesis like
>> all plants have been doing since the birth of this planet, sustainable
>> abundance in solar energy generation will be possible.
>>
>> And in the short term, enough gallium supplies exist, so sounding the
>> alarm without offering an alternative is what the problem is in my own
>> view. It's one thing to sound the alarm and at the same time offer an
>> alternative. It's a completely different thing to sound the alarm and
>> offer no alternative (for solar energy generation).
>>
>> Having said that, sounding the alarm now maybe a bit premature to the
>> point where suppliers not faced with actual depletion conditions will
>> use the fear to raise prices and the victims will be all the solar
>> cell companies who are trying to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels
>> so this whole "alarm sounding" act with respect to gallium and indium
>> may be an attempt by Big Oil or other interests to kill the home solar
>> energy market before it starts.
>>
>> Why not focus our "alarm raising" efforts on clean coal,
>> environmentally damaging oil drilling, and nuclear energy and give the
>> solar energy industry a break? After all, the solar energy industry is
>> the industry that will invest in new ideas for harvesting the sun's
>> power. Those ideas won't come from the clean coal or nuclear or oil
>> industries.
>>
>> Sounding the alarm on gallium and indium now without hyping up the
>> story is OK as long as A) we don't knock down an industry that is
>> trying to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels and B) we accompany
>> our alarm sounding with new ideas for getting energy efficiency from
>> the sun.
>>
>> Otherwise, we're helping Big Oil, Clean Coal, and Nuclear industries
>> by creating an alarmist atmosphere around the solar energy industry
>> whereas what we need to create is hope in its future (think:
>> photosynthesis, solar cooking, solar heating, etc)
>>
>> That's my opinion of course and I realize everyone has one :-)
>>
>> Marc
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sun, Feb 22, 2009 at 7:55 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>> > Thank you Kurt, this will help a lot,
>> >
>> > Michel
>> >
>> > On Sun, Feb 22, 2009 at 2:00 AM, Kurt Cobb <kurtcobb2001 at yahoo.com>
>> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> Michel,
>> >>
>> >> I'm glad there is a discussion going on now.  Of course, people are
>> still
>> >> saying we have plenty of oil and natural gas as well.  But the key
>> >> issue
>> >> isn't when we run out of any of these key energy or mineral resources,
>> but
>> >> when we peak!   It is the flow of critical materials, not the size of
>> the
>> >> stocks that is important if we expect to continue to grow the world
>> >> economy.  Declining flows means resource constraints.  The rate of of
>> >> production is all important. Under these conditions vastly higher
>> >> consumption cannot be achieved.  Here are three articles that should
>> >> interest you on the topic of mineral depletion:
>> >>
>> >> Peak Minerals - Using USGS numbers the authors conclude that gallium
>> >> production has already peaked.
>> >> The Earth's Natural Wealth: An Audit - From New Scientist. Indium
>> >> could
>> be
>> >> gone in 10 years.
>> >> Metals Shortages - A nice summary with citations about our metals
>> >> supply
>> >> predicament
>> >>
>> >> One correction from my previous email.  Gallium is, of course, a
>> byproduct
>> >> of aluminum and zinc production.
>> >>
>> >> Best regards,
>> >>
>> >> Kurt Cobb
>> >> Resource Insights
>> >>
>> >> ________________________________
>> >> From: Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
>> >> To: Kurt Cobb <kurtcobb2001 at yahoo.com>
>> >> Sent: Friday, February 20, 2009 8:30:56 PM
>> >> Subject: Fwd: [p2p-research] List of articles on Indium/Gallium
>> >> Supplies
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:9xU1oL86m_EJ:www.indium.com/_dynamo/download.php%3Fdocid%3D552+gallium+indium+supply&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
>> >>
>> >> Dear Kurt,
>> >>
>> >> thanks again for your input which generate a lot of interesting
>> >> comments
>> >> both on our blog and p2p research mailing list, your cooperation was
>> much
>> >> appreciated,
>> >>
>> >> do you have any papers on the indium/gallium supply issue?
>> >>
>> >> Michel
>> >>
>> >> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>> >> From: marc fawzi <marc.fawzi at gmail.com>
>> >> Date: Sat, Feb 21, 2009 at 2:54 AM
>> >> Subject: [p2p-research] List of articles on Indium/Gallium Supplies
>> >> To: Peer-To-Peer Research List <p2presearch at listcultures.org>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Re: viability of solar cell technology beyond silicon
>> >>
>> >> We had ample debate but (after asking twice) no one has provided a
>> >> link to the paper that says gallium/indium supplies are at risk of
>> >> being depleted in the short term.
>> >>
>> >> If anyone should like to provide links here to all such articles re:
>> >> supply of indium and/or gallium regardless of whether they may be
>> >> biased (fabricated conclusions of or bad analysis) not, please do so
>> >> right here.
>> >>
>> >> Here is the first link (from a corporation):
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:9xU1oL86m_EJ:www.indium.com/_dynamo/download.php%3Fdocid%3D552+gallium+indium+supply&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
>> >>
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>> >>
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>> >>
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>> > Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>> > http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
>> > http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>> >
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>
>
>
> --
> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>
> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
> http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
>
> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>
> The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
> http://www.shiftn.com/
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