[p2p-research] Fwd: [Open Manufacturing] Fwd: there is no energy crisis

[marc fawzi]

Hi Tere,

<<
> I also want to add re: Marc's point "It's simple demand-supply math. If
> gallium is about to run out in 15 years, those who produce it would be
> complete idiots not to raise its price." that while this is a nice ideal, it
> does not work in reality. For example, currently the price of oil is driven
> down by a wedge: it is too expensive for users (because of the economic
> downturn) and too cheap for the producers (who are *shutting down*
> production and *delaying* or *abandoning* new production because of the low
> price.) This might very well result in more oil being left in the ground
> despite the fact that it at the same time relatively "runs out". All of this
> is happening despite the fact that everybody knows that oil will run out in
> the time of some decades.
>>

Let me explain why I do not fully buy the above stated argument.

In the US, Oil is 2X more expensive now than it was 10 years ago. So
in 10 years it has doubled.

I am speaking of prices as of today (after the economic meltdown) and
they may continue to rise despite the economic meltdown.

However, while I don't have the data, I can infer that the price of
gallium has not doubled in the last 10 years and this is based on the
fact that IR laser diodes and other products using gallium have
continued to decrease in price. In other words, I know the price of
things that use gallium has continued to go down.

So while the wedge thesis is correct to some extent it does not
account for the increase in prices of oil. So it's an imperfect thesis
in this sense.

Price of oil is higher than it was 10 years ago (double the price)
while the price of gallium (as inferred from the price of goods that
use gallium and where gallium is the most costly part, e.g. IR laser
diodes) has gone down in the last 10 years.

So demand and supply math would still hold even if there was a wedge
as you describe (as in the case of oil)

But since price of gallium has not risen, I argue that there is no
shortage YET and that any papers written that claim such shortage
MAYBE an attempt by some suppliers to hype up scarcity to get in early
on the massive profits.

Note that the oil companies made over $40 Billion dollars in profit.

Fear is a big business.

Marc




On Thu, Feb 19, 2009 at 10:36 PM, Tere Vadén <tere.vaden at uta.fi> wrote:
>> One could argue that the the Net Energy Cliff is based on the assumptions
>> that:
>>
>>
>> -The consumption of Fuel
>>
>> -The monoculture nature of biomass production
>>
>> ...will remain the same.
>>
>> However, what if Permaculture were used for biomass production? what
>> if natural processes were used for processing?
>>
>> ***What if some energy needs we replaced with natural  systems (like
>> fertilization of agriculture, home and commercial heating and cooling,
>> treatment of water systems, production of printed materials, plastics,
>> etc etc)?****
>>
>> The future will not be like the past, or the present.
>>
>> More importantly, if you and I (we) get *involved in the production*
>> of replacements for infrastructure, technology, processes and
>> practices that require traditional petroleum-based fuel production,
>> then we up the likelihood that the past will not be like the future.
>
> Certainly, I agree completely. However, I think with this solution (which I
> believe will be inevitable, and is already underway in several places around
> the world) we will find ourselves functioning at a much lower level of
> energy use than the current 85 million barrels per day. This is also because
> we will not be making solar panels, much less nano solar panels.
>
> I also want to add re: Marc's point "It's simple demand-supply math. If
> gallium is about to run out in 15 years, those who produce it would be
> complete idiots not to raise its price." that while this is a nice ideal, it
> does not work in reality. For example, currently the price of oil is driven
> down by a wedge: it is too expensive for users (because of the economic
> downturn) and too cheap for the producers (who are *shutting down*
> production and *delaying* or *abandoning* new production because of the low
> price.) This might very well result in more oil being left in the ground
> despite the fact that it at the same time relatively "runs out". All of this
> is happening despite the fact that everybody knows that oil will run out in
> the time of some decades.
>
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