[p2p-research] [Open Manufacturing] Fwd: there is no energy crisis

Thu Feb 19 12:04:49 CET 2009

Michel -

Most if not all of us are experts in one industry or another.

I happen to be an outsider to the energy industry but I have an
interest in its transformation.

So I'm in a good place to question the experts.

First off, I know nothing about nanosolar other than what you've
mentioned. I had joined the debate to voice the opinion that if some
substance is running out it does not mean that all industries
depending on it will just cease to exist. Human ingenuity will find a
replacement and the industries in question will evolve, or the
industries may evolve without the pressure of a scarce resource, e.g.
due to some  radical invention.

I don't think that plastic solar cells are that radical invention. I
had heard of plastic solar cells as far back as the early 90s so I
have some perspective on the technology.

The key when it comes to energy production is the efficiency of
conversion and the cost of the infrastructure.

In a P2P Energy setting, the cost of the infrastructure is
distributed, and can be thought of the same way as the cost of new
technology like hybrid cars, so the only concern is to bring the cost
down to the point where the home owner can break even in say 5 years.

The efficiency of conversion is the big issue, IMO.

If solar cells, hard glass or plastic, cannot be made efficient enough
to power a home 24x7 (with some kind of storage technology to power
the home during night time) then we have nothing to debate.

But if they can be (I do not know either way) then we have something to debate.

Yet, what we're debating now is whether or not we can keep the solar
industry alive before gallium and indium are depleted. I don not
understand the reason for the debate and find it funny, no offense to
Tere or anyone. I just find it really funny to be worried about a
particular type of solar technology and to suggest that the depletion
of gallium and indium would put an end to the solar industry. It
won't. There are tons of ways to make energy from the sun. It can be
chemical (photosynthesis like), thermal (solar cookers) or
photovolatic. In each of these possibilities, there are a variety of
materials that can be used. So the solar industry will find a way to
persist and eventually we'll get more energy from the sun for less
cost than we do today from fossil fuels.

However, the argument that you and the Fioretti bring based on someone
having presumably done a good statistical analysis is still a vague
argument to me, numerically speaking, because I have not seen the
details of the analysis.

The argument itself is simple: It says that "we cant get there from here."

But what is "here"? numerically speaking. How much oil do we have
left? How long is the tail?

Will a combination of wind, biofuel, geothermal, solar and nuclear be
enough to replace oil as oil production dies out slowly?

Where is the paper located? In order to respond to the argument, I do
need to scrutinize the assumptions he makes in his analysis.

If I go "so and so said that we can't get there from here and no one
has rebutted him so it means we can't get there from here" then who
plays the devil's advocate?

Marc

On Thu, Feb 19, 2009 at 2:22 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>
>> My argument is based on not having seen an industry that is hundreds
>> of billions of dollars worth a year that died because of the lack of
>> some resources.
>
> Marc,
>
> you admit yourself that oil is running out. Now there are alternatives, such
> as renewable energy. However, different people having made different
> calculations, my understanding is that most of them have come to the
> conclusion that oil CANNOT be replaced in time by those sources, due to the
> time and scale problem of conversion.
>
> The argument of Vinay is tnat plastic nanosolar offers a solution to that
> issue.
>
> Kurt Cobb argues cogently that this may not be the case.
>
> You offer a general argument that until today, no industries have
> disappeared because they run out of resources, yet almost all experts point
> to a dwindling resource base in many many different areas (see New Economics
> Foundation, Worldwatch Institute and many others).
>
> You cannot rely on the past experience of industrial society, which is a
> resource-depleting system, to argue that in the future, they will
> automatically find solutions.
>
> Rather, we have a concrete issue here. If nanosolar is a solution, that
> means it will not run against its own resource issue.
>
> So, is that true or not, which cannot be solved by a general, in my view,
> faith-based (on past observation, assuming the future will be the same)
> statement,
>
> Michel
>>
>>
>> It's not based on some deductive logic. It's based on observation.
>> Maybe some industry WILL run out of resources but if you go by the
>> subjective probability that probability is very low right now until
>> such thing happens. if it has happened then I'd benefit from being
>> told about it and we can debate if that industry died or had
>> transformed. I just haven't seen any mega industry DIE due to
>> depletion of some resource. When one resource is depleted another kind
>> of alternative resource is found. If this is a cycle that has an end,
>> I have not seen the end. It reminds me of people on Columbus' ship
>> fearing they will fall off the end of the world.
>>
>> Marc
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Feb 19, 2009 at 12:53 AM, Michel Bauwens
>> <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> > Dear Marc,
>> >
>> > If you take the current overuse of real estate, or oil, or the crisis in
>> > food, and many others, there is ample evidence that capitalist markets
>> > have
>> > not worked to preserve long term management of scarce resources, and you
>> > cannot simply make an equation between current reliance, and intelligent
>> > foresight.
>> >
>> > It can and could be, but is not automatically the case, so the arguments
>> > of
>> > Kurt should be answered by specifics on the availibility of the resource
>> > itself,
>> >
>> > This is not an argument that the sky will fall down, simply a reminder
>> > of
>> > real world constraints, that may be wrong or not,
>> >
>> > Michel
>> >
>> > On Thu, Feb 19, 2009 at 2:27 PM, marc fawzi <marc.fawzi at gmail.com>
>> > wrote:
>> >>
>> >> The counter argument is that if something is in wide use and hundreds
>> >> of billions of dollars in trade depend on it then there will be more
>> >> than enough money dedicated to making sure that every bit of it is
>> >> extracted and at the same time finding alternatives that can be used
>> >> to provide the same function.
>> >>
>> >> If hundreds of billions of dollars a year depend on some resource,
>> >> e.g. oil, then A) researchers will find ways to extract the last bit
>> >> of oil and B) researchers will find alternative to oil that delivers
>> >> the same function, i.e. energy, be it solar or wind or whatever.
>> >>
>> >> It is funny to suggest that hundreds of billions of dollars in annual
>> >> trade that is based on Gallium, Indium or any substance is going to go
>> >> away just because that substance may be hard to extract or less
>> >> common.
>> >>
>> >> The amount of money involved means that there is large funds available
>> >> to R&D institutions (corporate and academic) to pursue more efficient
>> >> production of Gallium and Indium as well as to find replacement.
>> >>
>> >> Thus, the argument that the sky will fall down is rather silly.
>> >>
>> >> On Wed, Feb 18, 2009 at 11:13 PM, M. Fioretti <mfioretti at nexaima.net>
>> >> wrote:
>> >> > On Wed, Feb 18, 2009 00:47:32 AM -0800, marc fawzi wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> >> The part about the world running out of Indium and Gallium smells
>> >> >> funny to me, based on the following:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> 1. ITO (Indium Tin Oxide) is [used in] billions of other laptops
>> >> >> ...
>> >> >> 2. Gallium Arsenide is used in most IR and near-IR laser
>> >> >> diodes... used in all CD and DVD players today, billions of them
>> >> >>
>> >> >> 3. Gallium Arsenide is used in most very high frequency FETs (field
>> >> >> effect transistors) which are in wide spread use in
>> >> >> telecommunications...
>> >> >
>> >> > in other words, "how could we be running out of these materials in
>> >> > ~10/15 years if we are making such a large use of them today"???? Is
>> >> > this your counter-argument, ie the reason why you find funny that
>> >> > part
>> >> > of the critique?
>> >> >
>> >> >> I hardly have any credentials in the solar or semiconductor space
>> >> >> (besides helping students at Northeastern U. design a solar racer)
>> >> >> but had worked with lasers and flat panel display tech at the R&D
>> >> >> stage back in the early 90s when making a blue laser entailed IR
>> >> >> beam doubling via birefringent nonlinear crystals (a $100,000 setup
>> >> >> at least) and we used ITO in fabricating flexible displays and
>> >> >> architectural lighting.
>> >> >
>> >> > Did you, in order to fabricate displays for those projects, have to
>> >> > study in depth ITO world reserves, or came into in-depth studies on
>> >> > the same subject? If yes, what were the results? If not, how is that
>> >> > activity of yours relevant?
>> >> >
>> >> >> So one German scientist said we're running out of Indium and/or
>> >> >> Gallium.... What does it mean to base a conclusion on what one
>> >> >> scientist's statements?
>> >> >
>> >> > On this you're right, of course . But the arguments and data you
>> >> > provided so far contain nothing that can actually counter that
>> >> > statement from that scientist (does his nationality matter, btw???),
>> >> > do they?
>> >> >
>> >> > Speaking of efficient use of resources: for heaven's sake, dear list
>> >> > members, please do learn to quote email properly. Don't retransmit to
>> >> > many people, every time, KBytes and KBytes of text they had already
>> >> > received. On a global scale, this is one, not the biggest of course,
>> >> > reasons which keep consumption of raw materials for networks and
>> >> > drives higher than necessary. On a local scale: even if there were
>> >> > only one member on this list who pays Internet connectivity per byte
>> >> > or time... would it be polite to force that person to pay more just
>> >> > because of carelessness?
>> >> >
>> >> > Marco
>> >> > http://mfioretti.net
>> >> >
>> >> > --
>> >> > Your own civil rights and the quality of your life heavily depend on
>> >> > how
>> >> > software is used *around* you:
>> >> >  http://digifreedom.net/node/84
>> >> >
>> >> > _______________________________________________
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>> >> >
>> >>
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>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > --
>> > Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>> > http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
>> > http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>> >
>> > Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
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>> >
>> > Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>> >
>> > The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
>> > http://www.shiftn.com/
>> >
>
>
>
> --
> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>
> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
> http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
>
> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>
> The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
> http://www.shiftn.com/
>