[p2p-research] [Open Manufacturing] Fwd: there is no energy crisis

Thu Feb 19 10:27:40 CET 2009

By the way, Organic LED displays do not need to use Indium.

That's one example of an industry (flat panel display industry)
continuing to march on and transform beyond the depletion of some
resource (e.g. gallium)

The solution (organic LEDs) was being researched as far back as the early 90s.

Same with solar cells, if Indium and Gallium are indeed running out
then alternatives will be found.

This is based on not having seen any mega industry fail to transform
itself beyond the depletion of a given scarce resource.

And transformation of an industry (or rather "evolution") can happen
without having the pressure of a scarce resource. For example, horse
carriage industry transformed or evolved into the car industry not
because horses were scarce but because something better came along.

If something better than solar cells comes along then the energy
industry will evolve as driven by that new invention.

The cycle of invention does not end.

So why say the end is near (for anything) before the curtain comes
down? or before the play even starts?

That's my point. We saying that solar is screwed because gallium is
running out is a little funny... at least based on seeing how people
have invented themselves out of some many crisis and shortages before.

i.e. the optimist view

:)

On Thu, Feb 19, 2009 at 1:14 AM, marc fawzi <marc.fawzi at gmail.com> wrote:
> Dear Michel,
>
> We know that oil is running out. But the oil companies are funding
> fusion research and all types of other alternatives, including solar.
>
> So "energy sources" will not run out. Oil will run out. The sun won't
> run out, not any time soon.
>
> My point is that it's funny to say that the solar industry is screwed
> because it relies on rare substance. If there is money to be made
> there will be a variety of alternatives.
>
> My argument is based on not having seen an industry that is hundreds
> of billions of dollars worth a year that died because of the lack of
> some resources.
>
> It's not based on some deductive logic. It's based on observation.
> Maybe some industry WILL run out of resources but if you go by the
> subjective probability that probability is very low right now until
> such thing happens. if it has happened then I'd benefit from being
> told about it and we can debate if that industry died or had
> transformed. I just haven't seen any mega industry DIE due to
> depletion of some resource. When one resource is depleted another kind
> of alternative resource is found. If this is a cycle that has an end,
> I have not seen the end. It reminds me of people on Columbus' ship
> fearing they will fall off the end of the world.
>
> Marc
>
>
> On Thu, Feb 19, 2009 at 12:53 AM, Michel Bauwens
> <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> Dear Marc,
>>
>> If you take the current overuse of real estate, or oil, or the crisis in
>> food, and many others, there is ample evidence that capitalist markets have
>> not worked to preserve long term management of scarce resources, and you
>> cannot simply make an equation between current reliance, and intelligent
>> foresight.
>>
>> It can and could be, but is not automatically the case, so the arguments of
>> Kurt should be answered by specifics on the availibility of the resource
>> itself,
>>
>> This is not an argument that the sky will fall down, simply a reminder of
>> real world constraints, that may be wrong or not,
>>
>> Michel
>>
>> On Thu, Feb 19, 2009 at 2:27 PM, marc fawzi <marc.fawzi at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> The counter argument is that if something is in wide use and hundreds
>>> of billions of dollars in trade depend on it then there will be more
>>> than enough money dedicated to making sure that every bit of it is
>>> extracted and at the same time finding alternatives that can be used
>>> to provide the same function.
>>>
>>> If hundreds of billions of dollars a year depend on some resource,
>>> e.g. oil, then A) researchers will find ways to extract the last bit
>>> of oil and B) researchers will find alternative to oil that delivers
>>> the same function, i.e. energy, be it solar or wind or whatever.
>>>
>>> It is funny to suggest that hundreds of billions of dollars in annual
>>> trade that is based on Gallium, Indium or any substance is going to go
>>> away just because that substance may be hard to extract or less
>>> common.
>>>
>>> The amount of money involved means that there is large funds available
>>> to R&D institutions (corporate and academic) to pursue more efficient
>>> production of Gallium and Indium as well as to find replacement.
>>>
>>> Thus, the argument that the sky will fall down is rather silly.
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 18, 2009 at 11:13 PM, M. Fioretti <mfioretti at nexaima.net>
>>> wrote:
>>> > On Wed, Feb 18, 2009 00:47:32 AM -0800, marc fawzi wrote:
>>> >
>>> >> The part about the world running out of Indium and Gallium smells
>>> >> funny to me, based on the following:
>>> >>
>>> >> 1. ITO (Indium Tin Oxide) is [used in] billions of other laptops
>>> >> ...
>>> >> 2. Gallium Arsenide is used in most IR and near-IR laser
>>> >> diodes... used in all CD and DVD players today, billions of them
>>> >>
>>> >> 3. Gallium Arsenide is used in most very high frequency FETs (field
>>> >> effect transistors) which are in wide spread use in
>>> >> telecommunications...
>>> >
>>> > in other words, "how could we be running out of these materials in
>>> > ~10/15 years if we are making such a large use of them today"???? Is
>>> > this your counter-argument, ie the reason why you find funny that part
>>> > of the critique?
>>> >
>>> >> I hardly have any credentials in the solar or semiconductor space
>>> >> (besides helping students at Northeastern U. design a solar racer)
>>> >> but had worked with lasers and flat panel display tech at the R&D
>>> >> stage back in the early 90s when making a blue laser entailed IR
>>> >> beam doubling via birefringent nonlinear crystals (a $100,000 setup
>>> >> at least) and we used ITO in fabricating flexible displays and
>>> >> architectural lighting.
>>> >
>>> > Did you, in order to fabricate displays for those projects, have to
>>> > study in depth ITO world reserves, or came into in-depth studies on
>>> > the same subject? If yes, what were the results? If not, how is that
>>> > activity of yours relevant?
>>> >
>>> >> So one German scientist said we're running out of Indium and/or
>>> >> Gallium.... What does it mean to base a conclusion on what one
>>> >> scientist's statements?
>>> >
>>> > On this you're right, of course . But the arguments and data you
>>> > provided so far contain nothing that can actually counter that
>>> > statement from that scientist (does his nationality matter, btw???),
>>> > do they?
>>> >
>>> > Speaking of efficient use of resources: for heaven's sake, dear list
>>> > members, please do learn to quote email properly. Don't retransmit to
>>> > many people, every time, KBytes and KBytes of text they had already
>>> > received. On a global scale, this is one, not the biggest of course,
>>> > reasons which keep consumption of raw materials for networks and
>>> > drives higher than necessary. On a local scale: even if there were
>>> > only one member on this list who pays Internet connectivity per byte
>>> > or time... would it be polite to force that person to pay more just
>>> > because of carelessness?
>>> >
>>> > Marco
>>> > http://mfioretti.net
>>> >
>>> > --
>>> > Your own civil rights and the quality of your life heavily depend on how
>>> > software is used *around* you:            http://digifreedom.net/node/84
>>> >
>>> > _______________________________________________
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>>> >
>>>
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>>
>>
>>
>> --
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>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
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>>
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>