[p2p-research] fakeness of recovery

[Michel Bauwens]

It's not the oil Ryan, most countries with oil revenues actually go down the
drain (the famous oil course), and it is not just redistribution, but deep
structural reform, and things that last for lifetimes like better healthcare
for poor children, alphabetisation campaings and the like.

The key question is whether this  is tied to a concurrent trend towards
authoritarianism, and there are undoubtedly strong signs in that direction,

the other big question for me is about social antagonism:

- in the long run, is composing with the oligarchy, as in Brazil, the best
choice (no sabotage from the old privileged class), which also means not
removing a lot of structural coercion of the old system, or is antagonism a
la Chavez the answer, which creates more direct political coercion and may
create a new bureaucratic elite ..

Some say of course that this choice was less dictated by chavez and lula,
but by their opponents, in other words, even starting out as a moderate,
Chavez had no choice given the all out opposition to even moderate measures
..

But as a p2p advocate, my preference goes out to see what happens in the
grassroots, and they are very active in both cases .... 2 million brazilians
work for the social economy sector for example ..

But whatever happens, just the oil factor, which may of course resume
climbing, would be a simplistic reading ...

Cuba survived much worse, a real Peak Oil, and came out stronger, not
weaker,

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking on the part of the old oligarchy,
and it would be a mistake to just their account for truth,

which is of course not to say that the situation is complex, may go wrong,
that chavez is on a dangerous slope to authoritarianism, etc...

Michel

On Wed, Dec 30, 2009 at 10:56 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 12/29/09, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> a few elements:
>>
>>
>> - five year high sustained growth in Venezuela wi th chronic poverty down
>> from 20.2 percent of the population to 11.8 percent between 2002-08 (and
>> this after a 30 year rise  of it before Chavez)
>>
>> I'm insisting on this one, because you seem really the victim of
>> propaganda on this one
>>
>> your talk about collapse really seems specious in view of the spectacular
>> achievements cited below:
>>
>> (of course it's before the meltdown, which affected it like every other
>> country in the world)
>>
>> See: http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/venezuela-2009-02.pdf
>>
>
>
> HI Michel,
>
> I do hope for the people who live there's sake, you are right about
> Venezuela and I am a victim of anti-left propaganda.  We'll see.  My guess
> is that Chavez has burned through his foreign reserves and distributed them
> to his poor as social programs.  Whether that shock caused lasting good
> things, time will tell.  It seems to have moved the numbers for a time.
>
> Ryan
>



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