[p2p-research] fakeness of recovery

[Michel Bauwens]

It's not just technology Ryan, but technology embedded in new
organisational, funding, and other social forms,

Carlota Perez book is an excellent one for that,

I think you really have a penchant for technological determinism,

new inventions can lay dormant for decades if not centuries, if they are not
taken up in that integrated way by social forces and society,

it's an important and crucial factor, but not a independent determinant,

the very sophisticated islamic robots have disappeared, and so did the Greek
and Roman labor-saving devices, which were useless in a slave based
societies; and the early inventors of the medieval textile machinery were
put to death ... TV lay dormant for 60 years .. etc ... etc...

Michel

On Fri, Dec 25, 2009 at 11:08 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Fri, Dec 25, 2009 at 10:42 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> Hi Ryan,
>>
>> I agree with you on most counts,
>>
>> - inflation is unlikely because despite the money creation, it can't keep
>> up with the credit and wealth destruction that has taken place
>>
>> - a long slow malaise, like Japan, is likely,
>>
>> and this for the same reason: the U.S. government has chosen the same
>> zombie bank strategy, which keeps the patient on life support, but doesn't
>> heal any of the underlying causes .. over-indebted households, corporations,
>> and governments are in such need to be deleveraged that artificial credit
>> creation only compounds the problem ...
>>
>> However, I would not be confident that crisis moments would remain abstent
>> (which doesn't mean total and immediate collapse)
>>
>> But all of this seriously hampers a reconfiguration needed for Kondratieff
>> 5,
>>
>> Michel
>>
>>
> I think very few crises occur without sea change technology events.
> Printing presses, airplanes/telephones, PCs/Internets typically create
> vortexes that distend systems into great crises.  The game changes (or sea
> changes) rarely come from within the economy itself.  I actually think
> capitalism is fairly stable ceteris paribus...particularly in the absence of
> democracy.
>
> Your wave, if it comes, will come on the back of technology shifts.  Which
> ones, I have no idea.  The obvious candidates would be cheap/low carbon
> energy, life extension technologies, robotics/AGI detroying human labor as a
> reasonable prospect.  That's my bet anyway.
>
> Radical inflation is a boon to governments...I think that's why the
> conspiracy/anti-government crowd loves the idea.  As usual, they are blinded
> from the facts by their own ideology.
>



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