[p2p-research] fakeness of recovery

[Ryan Lanham]

On Fri, Dec 25, 2009 at 10:42 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

> Hi Ryan,
>
> I agree with you on most counts,
>
> - inflation is unlikely because despite the money creation, it can't keep
> up with the credit and wealth destruction that has taken place
>
> - a long slow malaise, like Japan, is likely,
>
> and this for the same reason: the U.S. government has chosen the same
> zombie bank strategy, which keeps the patient on life support, but doesn't
> heal any of the underlying causes .. over-indebted households, corporations,
> and governments are in such need to be deleveraged that artificial credit
> creation only compounds the problem ...
>
> However, I would not be confident that crisis moments would remain abstent
> (which doesn't mean total and immediate collapse)
>
> But all of this seriously hampers a reconfiguration needed for Kondratieff
> 5,
>
> Michel
>
>
I think very few crises occur without sea change technology events.
Printing presses, airplanes/telephones, PCs/Internets typically create
vortexes that distend systems into great crises.  The game changes (or sea
changes) rarely come from within the economy itself.  I actually think
capitalism is fairly stable ceteris paribus...particularly in the absence of
democracy.

Your wave, if it comes, will come on the back of technology shifts.  Which
ones, I have no idea.  The obvious candidates would be cheap/low carbon
energy, life extension technologies, robotics/AGI detroying human labor as a
reasonable prospect.  That's my bet anyway.

Radical inflation is a boon to governments...I think that's why the
conspiracy/anti-government crowd loves the idea.  As usual, they are blinded
from the facts by their own ideology.
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